清凡•Vincent
55 posts
Given my recent popularity, might be a good time to put out a PSA.
Early followers have known this from the start:
1. I don't do any paid promotions, paid marketing, or accept outside gifts.
But I appreciate all the recent outreach from companies!
If you see or engage with something online related to any type of payment, it's fabricated for engagement or a scammer.
The reason I don't want to is because I'm just posting on X for fun, and when money is involved it turns into a job (which I don't want it to feel like).
Also, well off personally so I've never felt influenced by anyone outside.
2. The only "paid" thing I have is $1 subscriptions. That's all.
From the very start, I've never taken a single penny outside of X subscriptions/creator sharing. Which is why I say in my bio:
"I only use X, beware of imposters."
Anyone approaching you to share an external community or app is a scammer or imposter.
It's just very frustrating that people still fall for these impersonators.
3. I'm just one person posting my thoughts online.
-> Not some institution or Illuminati team.
Quality of research is "high" because I have a technical background. And I genuinely do this as a hobby researching supply chain ideas.
There's not some "hidden" motive like a paid research group from Asia, it's just fun lol.
4. I will always disclose positions if I have them or if I don't. Very open and transparent about it.
With Chinese equities I'm just posting research in hope it benefits people find conviction in critical companies in global supply chains.
I don't have any positions / any financial incentives (so I can be impartial), and haven't privately discussed with anyone about ideas I post beforehand.
Maybe it happens in Asia, but in the US it's highly illegal to be running groups or getting paid to post about companies.
I'm just posting my ideas for free without outside influence, in case others like the idea.
It probably seems odd, but I'm doing this as a hobby and for fulfillment of helping others.
5. I'm staying anonymous so I can just freely post my ideas online.
Reason being is after I first posted negative things about $IREN, I would have a lot of personal IRL threats and harassment from dozens of accounts for me to stop.
Don't want any personal safety or people around me to be at risk for just publishing free research online.
Anyway, goal is to help out retail investors with free information synthesis; rather than just selling that directly to institutions.
I'm sure this positive sum model might anger people along the way (who have expensive paywalls, or financial incentives) that might feel threatened by information democratization.
But genuinely just sharing day-to-day thoughts for free.
Very surprised by recent popularity but it helps me distribute compelling ideas to more people.
And grateful Elon / X gave me an opportunity through X.
English
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#空投 #擼毛 #社區獎勵
中文
地产下滑是必然趋势，资本也不再是传统资本 已经逐步成为国家资本模式
当资源不断被垄断，所谓的新时代年轻人早已没多少路和发展空间可以走
更别说现在的Web3经济和AI时代来临，普通高校早已成为流水线的温室，培养的大多是新一代孔乙己
生存和发展都没有未来，新的接盘者都没有，必然加速崩塌。
亚洲金融 Asia Finance@AsiaFinance
两个月前的中国房地产趋势图，即将要重新改画：不是温和下滑10年，而是要先急剧下滑。推演了一下，万科即将步恒大、碧桂园，融创后尘，大概在26Q4破产。而中国房价最乐观也要继续跌25%，也就是，累计跌幅75%左右。最近5年继续抄底的业主，未来几年又会陆续破产。看到一组惊悚的数据：北京12月二手房成交均价38680元/平，同比降25.2%。 如果按目前的经济政策框架，中国房地产下跌的幅度也更陡峭。除了经济下行、人口剧降、外贸受阻、消费不振、失业奇高这些看得见的，还有看不见的，譬如地方财政基本破产，很有可能征收房产税。如按照美国房产税的标准下限(约1%)，中国房价还要下跌50%。这5年来，亚洲金融(AsiaFinance)关于中国房地产的预测，写过200篇以上的推文，几乎没有一篇是不准的。
中文
感觉这是特朗普想干的事。把全球的股票映射到区块链，当然还是美股优先。区块链现在跟美元绑定太深了，大家现在买 crypto第一步就要先买usdt，每买一个usdt就意味着多增加一美金的美元需求。全世界的股票都映射到区块链上，美股肯定先吃到第一波红利，然后就是进一步巩固美元的utilization
中文
