Jack

Someone has opened a $58,000,000 Oil short. Is he betting on US-Iran peace?

OPEC+ Agrees Another Symbolic Quota Hike for July, Delegates Say

Soon... incredibly soon, $10,000 days will be normal for you.

American works are taking home a smaller percentage of corporate profits than ever before. Employee compensation as a % of corporate GDP has fallen to ~54%, the lowest since records began in 1948. In other words, workers are receiving ~54% of the income generated by corporations, while the remaining ~46% goes to profits, interest, taxes, depreciation, and other corporate income components. At the same time, US corporate profits as a % of GDP are up to ~11.5%, the highest on record. Since 2001, employee compensation as a % of corporate GDP has declined -10 points. Over the same period, the corporate profits proportion of GDP has doubled. Workers are keeping less of what they produce than at any point in history.

The US government is becoming increasingly dependent on private investors to finance its growing debt burden: Privately held US Treasury debt maturing within 1 year is up to a record $8.3 trillion. This figure has DOUBLED over the last 5 years, reflecting the government's growing reliance on short-term financing from private investors. As more debt shifts into Treasury bills, a larger amount must be refinanced every year, leaving borrowing costs increasingly sensitive to interest rates and investor demand. At the same time, foreign central banks are reducing their share of Treasury holdings, making private investors absorb a larger portion of new issuances. As a result, the Treasury market is becoming increasingly dependent on investor demand and liquidity conditions rather than the stable long-term buyers that have traditionally anchored it. With US public debt at an all-time high, even modest disruptions in funding markets could have an outsized impact on borrowing costs. Treasury refinancing risks are intensifying.