Arth Gupta

The nasdaq rule changes pre space x IPO will only make passive investing more levered as “the public” provides liquidity for the bulk of American dynamism / infra bets. We’re just fundamentally in a different market now that is moved by different pricing mechanisms. Passive won’t work, and success in active increasingly relies on access to information, markets, and liquidity - which are distributed asymmetrically.

One of the only things I've disagreed with you on :) Passive Investing was brilliant when it was a small part of the market, but now the majority of the market is passives. This mathematically can't work. There is no way "Everyone buys asset X, without regard for the price of X", can work longterm. It doesn't matter if X is the S&P500. There have been many bubbles and busts where X was a "diversified basket of assets", and people thought that because it was a diverse basket their risk would be limited. Subprime mortgage crisis was the same thing: people buying a diversified basket of goods without regard for price/risk of the underlying assets Michael Burry does a great breakdown here on why Passive Investing will break: seekingalpha.com/article/457163… One of his compelling points, is that 1 dollar invested in the S&P500 is getting amplified to 5 dollars due to a perverse feedback loop--and this is more extreme for larger cap stocks. Fundamentally, Passive Investing is not passive -- it is the greatest force pushing up stock prices today. The majority of millennials hit "buy" twice a month without regard for whether the price of the asset makes sense. Historically this worked, because you could rely on active investors to "price the market". But now there is no incentive for actives to do that. Actives don't actually care about pricing the market, they care about making money. The easiest way for actives to make money now is by front-running the passives, pushing up prices even further. If you know half of millennials are going to buy the S&P500 on Thursday, what do you do as an active? You buy before them with leverage and then sell them back the stock at an ever-escalating price, knowing that they will keep buying no matter how absurd the price gets. Michael Green (former Thiel money manager) also has a good lecture on this: youtube.com/watch?v=qRu0t6… One of the points he makes is that Passive Funds have become so massive that they couldn't make buys without moving the market and creating tracking error -- this caused regulations to loosen and to enables funds to buy futures rather than raw stock. Furthermore, the Shiller PE ratio is about to cross 2000's levels. The S&P500 will soon be overpriced to a level it has never been before. One of my biggest contrary bets is that Passive will meltdown the market in a way we have not seen before, in our lifetime. This does not mean that buying index funds is a bad move. It's like buying Bitcoin mid-cycle. There is a massive, leveraged flow of money continually buying index funds without regard to price. Why not ride the wave? I just aim to be one of the first people out when Passive does inevitably fail, and I hope CPP can hedge against that risk too.

@JerusalemDemsas why is it insane?

The insane saga of the DAVID protein bar company continues. They are introducing a revolutionary protein product which is just canned cod.

we wanted automation but got another system to manage instead of AI freeing up time, free time is now used to manage more AIs

This is just vertical “rl env”

@jmrphy a lot changes when one you stop to consider the hypothesis that "private truths and public lies" is not the diagnosis of a diseased state of a system, but the precondition from which a system may emerge

All I care about now is secrets. My thinking about public vs. private has changed dramatically in recent years. Now I just want to find and keep the biggest secrets. Incentives have changed completely. Not out of some innocence or purity or whatever, but simply because secrets are more powerful now. You can use them on the world more directly now (rather than indirectly via publishing them to the infosphere), by building new kinds of conceptually relevant digital machines. You have to kill the word "software" in your head. It's now about machines. Instead of seeking hidden truths and sharing them as if one is a publishing machine, one will now build public machines around secrets, as if one is no longer a machine. Let the dead bury the dead.

@AnjneyMidha Ethnographic

a friend recently asked me how i was able to predict the future of certain technologies and invest in the right companies early enough the secret is to travel but it is a very specific form of travel that is all i can say

@nntaleb One is not burdened by errors of the past nor is one optimizing for a future - for a brief moment, two people are allowed to be truly present in the moment

People who are usually private and reserved, even with their friends, end up sharing all manner of personal details on a long flight with a stranger they will never meet again.

@fahdananta arthgupta.com/essays/competi…

The most consistently surprising thing to me is how few people are actually wired to pursue excellence Most ppl want it but few even try, then of the ppl that try most get oneshotted along the way with shiny things like status, money, mimetic desires, etc

ai anxiety can in part be explained by the fact that a lot of people bring consumption sensibilities to production choices

@orphcorp so what's the fix?

big part of "being stuck" is resisting the fact that you *are* stuck internalizing the judgments of a simulated audience about the state you are in ("i should've known"/"shouldn't be here") and then attempting to defend your ego against those judgments is a great way to close yourself off to ways out & to entrench yourself further in that state

Airlines M&A is going through a @constitutiondao moment where the people are coming together to make a bid for spirit airlines LFG despite over $132 M pledged from "the public", I anticipate the likely outcome to be a few highly coordinated / wealthy actors pooling in capital to buy out for a restructuring / acquisition @boomsupersonic could work with allocators eg @ThriveCapital to buy out the airlines and acquire regulatory / licensing infrastructure and then lobby + implement boom jets to build a barbell brand that owns both a) the fastest route AND b) the cheapest route. This would move the stock from an "airlines stock" to a "technology stock", and bring some much needed innovation in airlines. supersonic flights as a premium offering would fund the low-cost airlines. wonder what @bscholl thinks of this. could be the move #why" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">letsbuyspiritair.com/#why

need a codex app for iOS

“Passion" originates from the Latin passio - to suffer, to endure. The crisis of our times is that there are too many people in the world with priors and too few with resolve

@affprinter Slideshow

$20,366 in 2 Weeks spamming tiktok slideshows - How to target USA - How to bypass tiktok's duplicate detection - How to PRINT with slideshows.. Retweet & Comment "Slideshow" (must be following) and I'll send you the link to the full guide.

@jspujji @aschwags3 UGC

I recently spoke to a Head of Growth at a brand doing $50M+ in revenue. He told me +50% of their winning ads were made by people they've never met. No agency or contractor. One marketing assistant is finding, briefing, & scaling these creator programs through a system most brands haven’t scaled yet. Today, their ROAS and % of new web visitors have never been higher. So I asked him to break down the operational blueprint behind how they run it: He sent me this guide with everything brands need to know about the UGC system: — How Meta and TikTok's new algo rewards embedded creative signals — The exact org design behind high-growth UGC programs — The specific hooks and landers that convert Reply with "UGC" and I'll DM you the guide.

key: design is not *how it looks* but *how it works*

@MichLieben Ads

I'm giving away the Claude Code skills we use to manage $300k/mo in ad spend at ColdIQ. 4X ROAS on $1M+ spent. Ivan, our head of growth, built them off 300+ hours running ad campaigns for our clients. They run Google, Meta, and LinkedIn ads from the terminal in plain English: → bulk edits across platforms → custom audiences from CRM lists → creative fatigue detection before CTR dips → bid adjustments at scale → performance audits across periods Reply "ads" and I'll send the full repo. Must be following.

The greatest research in humanities is grounded in fieldwork out in the world. The desk is a narrow place to view the world, and is largely why ideas conceived in a closeted “office” fail to open up thinking. “Never trust a thought that didn’t come to you while walking” - Nietzsche

been saying this for a while, the consumer does NOT care about your stupid benchmark

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