Barracuda Pilchard

@SimonPB No the true business model as stated in filings repeatedly is "extending the light of consciousness to the stars"... that alone deserves a 1000x sales multiple! We are entering the banana zone & the monkeys (including myself) are gonna stampede the living daylights out of the IPO

So the whole SpaceX business model (according to the IPO company filings) is about AI. But Grok is so far behind they have enough spare capacity to sell $1.2bn to Anthropic every month ?!

@jbulltard1 Agreed time to move on. We have a trillion+ IPO coming up and 100x sales is way too low. "Extending the light of consciousness to the stars" deserves atleast a 1000x sales multiple!

I'll be honest I don't really care what the terms of the deal are but its hilarious we're having to make a deal to take back control of something that Iran did not control just 90 days ago. I'm glad we can move forward and just focus on all I care about, stonks going up everyday.

@jbulltard1 An absolute f*%ng catastrophe, that blotch of red makes me question whether I have gone color blind

@PauloMacro Bears are salivating but I don't think the top in Kospi is in. Getting closer but not yet...

Korea with Mandami Characteristics... prob nothing maybe Tech Bros about to get a hard lesson in resource nationalism and people thought O&G or mining was jurisdictionally risky... almost like authorities are behaving like memory is a COMMODITY at least in Argentina i can buy a copper junior at 0.2x NAV (see what I did there?)

@TheMaverickWS Even if you are right, which I as a pussy bear am not sure about, we have seen how relentless and effective the admin under Trump & Bessent is at keeping stocks up and oil down. It is not a free market so do you really think they will allow a collapse of the financial system??

Few parallels between today and the Dot Com era: 1) Cisco (overestimation of demand): Was the Nvidia of the 1990's. By 2001 the company had to write off billions of unsold inventories and the stock crashed 2) Sun Microsystems (Hardware bubbles): impressive growth but could not live up to the valuation at the end when demand stabilized. The CEO later blamed investors "What were you thinking?" 3) Lucent Technologies (Circular financing): Used its billions in revenue to finance its customers who eventually failed The argument today is it's different because of the scale of the players involved. I view it as added danger because when the Dot Com Bubble went bust, the economy suffered a minor recession. When this bubble goes bust, the economy will face a depression.

@PauloMacro Well retail did outperform after liberation day last year... It is a symptom of having a stock pumper president who puts a taco under every micro dip.

“Retail is the smart money now” Because this time is different

@europemaxxed @jbulltard1 Yes oil is going to zero because it was on The Economist's front page and yes AI is the alpha and the omega... but now I just HAVE to turn dinosaur with the OG Buffet and full port into OXY, thanks for the shove. I like pain

@jbulltard1 better sell it and buy $OXY lol

alot of you haven't been in markets long, don't overthink $NVDA I remember 2013 when $AAPL got to like 9x earnings and everyone said "but everyone is long" and apple is up like 10x or whatever since. Nobody has ever printed money like nvidia and it aint stopping anytime soon

@Hydra_Dom Nah for a special fella like you, in the hole, right before the taco, on the ask only. Eventually your long put spreads will work, perhaps even this week, but how has it worked out for you the last 4 weeks?

@b_pilchard @lord_fed @judahrhodie Please sell me otm options on the bid I’m begging you please

selling options is “basically risk free”

@jbulltard1 I would argue Trump wanting it to go up is what drove the flows and made it go up... as with most things in this market. Fundamental analysis should be replaced with Trumpamental analysis. It has worked great for me and yes I am a monkey... in a market for monkeys 🐒

nobody remind trump bc he always loves citing the dow jones but he's up almost 300% on his $INTC stake for the government, i imagine someone will remind him and he will start telling us more often

@tleilax___ Nah that's the annual sardine run, perhaps a few tunas chasing them...

If I was a betting man, I'd say the IRGC is laying mines in the middle of the Hormuz transit channel today with dozens and dozens of speedboats.

@MusaMzilikazi @BogosiSedie1 A cringe interview but quite enjoyed seeing that evil witch so frustrated. And make no mistake she is EVIL

Very interesting interview Listen to this white South African taking very serious questions

@JackFarley96 With funny money sloshing around everywhere and trend following monkeys switching on autopilot algos: p = 0.9 and an overall probability of 0.510500 for atleast 24 rigged heads. Noted you acknowledged correlation

The odds of an independent 50% occurrences happening 24 times in 26 events ("slots") is 1 in 206,488 The odds of it happening at least 24 times (so 24 times, 25 times, or 26 times) is 1 in 190,650 This is independent assuming no correlation. THIS^^ IS CORRELATED 2/3

I repeat, Chinese sulphur prices are up literally every day (save two) since war began. 24/26 Odds of this happening (if this was a coin flip) are 1 in ~200,000 This will have consequences for fertilizer and therefore food prices. 1/3

@elonmusk Oh come now Elon, we all know you are pivoting from cars to smashburgers and from rockets to ice cream cones and we love it. The IPO is going to be lit!

The Tesla Diner is obviously not something that matters financially to Tesla, but it is one of those small delights that bring joy to life

@agnostoxxx @citrini Sorry but Chuck Norris doesn't smile. His teeth are classified weapons.

Chuck Norris watching @citrini ‘s Analyst #3 from the heavens and smiling 🥹💪

@Tyler_Neville_ This legend can truly feel it coming in the air any night! Below is merely for impact, although he is also a legend

Phil Collins was a beast. These songs are all still bangers.

@KevinQuirk9 @DrJStrategy We assume he cares what happens after midterms but ignore the possibility of terminal illness and a desire to set his legacy in stone before then. Just a wild thought exercise

@DrJStrategy Electoral strategy? Start a massive & domestically unsupported war, drive the price of oil up sharply & reignite inflation. If Homuz is not reopened soon, he will lose the House & the Senate. He will spend 2 years being impeached, stymied constantly & no get appointments approved

Food for thought. Trump, Hormuz and the End of the Free Ride For half a century, Western strategists have known that the Strait of Hormuz is the acute point where energy, sea power and political will intersect. That knowledge is not in dispute. What is new in this war with Iran is that the United States, under Donald Trump, has chosen not to rush to “solve” the problem. In Hegelian terms, he is refusing an easy synthesis in order to force the underlying contradiction to the surface. The old thesis was simple: the US guarantees open sea lanes in the Gulf, and everyone else structures their economies and politics around that free insurance. Europe and the UK embraced ambitious green policies, ran down hard‑power capabilities and lectured Washington on multilateral virtue, secure in the assumption that American carriers would always appear off Hormuz. The political class behaved as if the American security guarantee were a law of nature, not a contingent choice. Their conduct today is closer to Chamberlain than Churchill: temporising, issuing statements, hoping the storm will pass without a fundamental reordering of their responsibilities. Trump’s antithesis is to withhold the automatic guarantee at the moment of maximum stress. Militarily, the US can break Iran’s residual ability to contest the Strait; that is not the binding constraint. The point is to delay that act. By allowing a closure or semi‑closure to bite, Trump ensures that the immediate pain is concentrated in exactly the jurisdictions that have most conspicuously free‑ridden on US power: the EU and the UK. Their industries, consumers and energy‑transition assumptions are exposed. In that context, his reported blunt message to European and British leaders, you need the oil out of the Strait more than we do; why don’t you go and take it? Is not a throwaway line. It is the verbalisation of the antithesis. It openly reverses the traditional presumption that America will carry the burden while its allies emote from the sidelines. In this dialectic, the prize is not simply the reopening of a chokepoint. The prize is a reordered system in which the United States effectively arbitrages and controls the global flow of oil. A world in which US‑aligned production in the Americas plus a discretionary capability to secure,or not secure, Hormuz places Washington at the centre of the hydrocarbon chessboard. For that strategic end, a rapid restoration of the old status quo would be counterproductive. A quick, surgical “fix” of Hormuz would short‑circuit the dialectic. If Trump rapidly crushed Iran’s remaining coastal capabilities, swept the mines and escorted tankers back through the Strait, Europe and the UK would heave a sigh of relief and return to business as usual: underfunded militaries, maximalist green posturing and performative disdain for US power, all underwritten by that same power. The contradiction between their dependence and their posture would remain latent. By declining to supply the synthesis on demand, and by explicitly telling London and Brussels to “go and take it” themselves, Trump forces a reckoning. European and British leaders must confront the fact that their energy systems, their industrial bases and their geopolitical sermons all rest on an American hard‑power foundation they neither finance nor politically respect. The longer the contradiction is allowed to unfold, the stronger the eventual synthesis can be: a new order in which access to secure flows, Hormuz, Venezuela and beyond, is explicitly conditional on real contributions, not assumed as a right. In that sense, the delay in “taking” the Strait, and the challenge issued to US allies to do it themselves, is not indecision. It is the negative moment Hegel insisted was necessary for history to move. Only by withholding the old guarantee, and by saying so out loud to those who depended on it, can Trump hope to end the free ride.

@dampedspring Atleast one sizeable dump in oil incoming next week. No clue about path after that, will see what she whispers from there

Oil experts are an interesting breed of people. They are sorta like gold bugs. For long periods they sit in a distant corner of the financial markets. We pass by their desks and they nod at us and occasionally they get our attention and draw us close. We hear their predictions of chaos and global doom. We slowly back away and go about our business and live life. Episodically once every decade or so these same people are thrust to the center of the stage. They haven't changed. They are the same people. It's us who have decided to pay attention. Their story remains the same. Energy is a physical commodity and real supply shocks will unleash chaos on the global economy for years to come. The thing is they amaze us with their depth and understanding of all things energy. Barrel count, geopolitical alignments of countries, grades, distillates, etc. So many facts. So much depth. So credible. They always had this level of credibility. They have specialized in this topic for their lifetime and we are simply tourists. They are incredibly valuable and always have been. Maybe this time is different. Certainly market prices of oil and scarce immediate supply is "chaotic" and feeds back into the real economy. Heck I care about the path of oil and its impact on the global economy and various market sectors. At the same time I suggest recognizing that YOU are the one who has changed. If your Oil guru or gurus have been saying the same thing for decades despite being wrong for decades it's your job to find the rare one who is pivoting and see their rationale and then for YOU to back slowly away from the perma oil bulls.

@MichaelLWealth @JackFarley96 There has been so many signs over the last 6 years that the nuthouse is overflowing with bears. How can a "free" market crash when the vol controllers catch it with printed monopoly money? The crash has been happening in our wallets in FIAT

@JackFarley96 And…At some point they’ll be signs of a top

SpaceX trying to go public at 80x forward sales, 500x forward earnings, and 125x forward EV/EBITDA multiple

@JackFarley96 Yuge new TAM on Mars don't forget