Bart aan den Toorn retweetledi
EVERYTHING POINTS TO A CRASH. THE MARKET DOESN'T CARE
> Bond yields at 19-year highs
> Consumer sentiment at 74-year lows
> Shiller CAPE at 40 (only seen during the dot-com peak)
> $SPX is trading at 228% of US GDP
Every macro signal is flashing red
And the S&P 500 just broke above multi-year channel resistance for the first time since 2020
The AI euphoria is doing something macro bears (including me) keep underestimating
> Nvidia just posted $81 billion in a single quarter
>Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Meta are collectively spending $1 trillion on AI infrastructure this year alone
> Corporate buybacks are running at $5 trillion annually, providing a constant bid under the market
> Options markets are pricing in more upside
So honestly I think the long-term setup looks genuinely dangerous
But in the short term the breakout is real, the AI bid is real, and the buyback machine doesn't turn off
All the warning signs are there and have been for a while, but the market keeps finding reasons to go up anyway
Could be another 10-20% higher before anything actually breaks
Too early to panic
Maybe these guys are right?👇
Kalshi@Kalshi
JUST IN: 50% chance S&P 500 hits 8,000 this year
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