Andre Motta

897 posts

Andre Motta

Andre Motta

@beyondthat_line

United States Katılım Mart 2018
68 Takip Edilen50 Takipçiler
Johan Swe 🇸🇪
Johan Swe 🇸🇪@LindenJohan·
Appreciate the DD. I went through the SEC filings, earnings transcripts, and Casdin/Corvex's transaction history (or more precisely, I used LLMs to do it) and I keep landing on a question your analysis doesn't address. You frame this as "the market suddenly panics on Q1." But $WGS went from $170 to $65 over four months before Q1 even reported. That's not a panic. That's sustained, informed selling by holders who were repricing something structural. TD Cowen flagged the pricing inflection back in January: realized prices had climbed 44% from Q1'24 to Q3'25, then stepped down in Q4. (Some) smart money didn't need Q1 to see it. And Q1 confirmed the pattern. 34% volume growth, 17% revenue growth. Outpatient genome reimbursement runs at roughly half the exome rate with more zero-pays, and genome mix is increasing because that's GeneDx's own strategic direction. The company compresses its own average revenue per test as it succeeds. That's not a one-quarter execution miss. That's a structural gap only payers can close, and GeneDx doesn't control that timeline. Now, insider buying. You present Casdin and Meister as outside hedge funds making a pure conviction bet. They sit on GeneDx's board. They sponsored the SPAC. That's a different category of buyer. And Casdin sold 500,000 shares at $121 in August 2025. If "complete informational superiority" explains the buying at $35, what explains the selling at $121? Meanwhile Stueland and Feeley sold over $60M through the decline. Stueland cut her direct ownership 43% at $144 in December. Operators selling, SPAC sponsors buying. Those signals point in different directions. That's worth addressing. Trying to understand the gaps, not kill the thesis. What am I missing?
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Z@ZeeContrarian1·
The Insiders Who Built $WGS Are Backing Up the Truck Every great hedge fund has that one legendary trade that defines the firm for decades. This could be that moment for Casdin and Corvex. The funds buying the $WGS earnings crash aren’t random hedge funds or ordinary insiders. Casdin and Corvex were there from the beginning. CM Life Sciences was the SPAC sponsored by affiliates of Casdin Capital and Corvex, and Sema4 completed that deal in July 2021. Sema4 then acquired GeneDx in April 2022, and the company later became GeneDx Holdings, $WGS . These are not hopeful founders that are going down with the ship, these are Wall Street veterans who have been around for decades. You can find countless interviews with them on CNBC and across financial media over the years. They have seen bubbles, crashes, frauds, turnarounds, and every type of market cycle imaginable. And now they are backing up the truck on this crash. Why? Because this may be their anomaly opportunity, the once-in-a-lifetime type of setup every great investor waits years for, where they have complete informational superiority over everyone else. A situation where the market suddenly panics in a business they understand better than anyone alive because they effectively helped create the company and lived through every stage of its evolution. So when Casdin adds massive exposure and Meister keeps buying aggressively, they are not reacting to a headline. They know the SPAC, the GeneDx acquisition, the old Sema4 mistakes, the turnaround, the reimbursement model, the payer issues, and the quality of the core exome and genome business better than anyone on the outside. This is also an extremely niche industry that very few funds or analysts truly understand. Genomic diagnostics, reimbursement dynamics, payer behavior, exome utilization, and lab economics are highly specialized areas where surface-level analysis can be dangerously misleading. That is why the timing matters so much. The recent “blunder” was not that demand disappeared. Q1 volume grew strongly, but revenue missed because blended reimbursement came in lower than expected and noncore lines underperformed. The issue appears tied to execution and mix, not a collapse in demand for the core business. That distinction is everything. If the story were permanently broken, insiders who have lived inside this company for years would not be adding aggressively right after the market punished the stock. After the collapse, Corvex-related entities came in and bought 1.2M shares between May 7–11 for roughly $46.8M in the mid-$30s. And he still wasn’t done. On May 15, he reported another $13.7M purchase. In total approximately $60M in one week, CONVICTION. Casdin also recently increased his economic exposure through swaps tied to 850,000 notional shares. The position now represents approximately 28% of his fund, based on the fund’s value at the end of Q1. (At the time of writing, Casdin had purchased an additional 500,000 shares.) The market is pricing $WGS like the Q1 miss exposed a structurally broken business. The people closest to the entire history of the company seem to believe something very different. No one knows the story better than them, no one. GeneDx now trades around $40, at an EV of 2.2x revised 2026 implied revenue, while the industry trades closer to double that multiple. My base-case scenario is a $75 price target over the next 12 months based on valuation alone. Separately, average analyst price targets still sit near $80 even after recent downgrades. Operationally, test volume still grew 34% YoY, the company now has insurance contracts covering ~80% of U.S. covered lives, and its proprietary genomic dataset continues compounding with every additional test. If the current reimbursement and execution issues prove temporary, the upside from today’s valuation could still be measured in hundreds of percent over the medium to long term. Portfolio allocation: 30%
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Jim Cramer
Jim Cramer@jimcramer·
Ad I said last night, you cannot trade this market with any conviction. 4 a.m. deal on. 6 am. deal off. 1: 30 deal on... Next?
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Andre Motta
Andre Motta@beyondthat_line·
@ZeeContrarian1 I bought a lot between 39 and $41. I placed an order first thing this morning but it did not go through! Great call!
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Z@ZeeContrarian1·
Why GeneDx $WGS Became 30% of My Portfolio I’m going to touch on four aspects of the company in my upcoming posts. First, insider buying - something you rarely see at this scale, and why here they matter so much. -coming later today. Second, the moat - which is especially rare to find in a fast-growing industry. -coming over the weekend Third, valuation - the company currently trades at roughly half the industry multiple. -coming next week Fourth, the opportunity itself - and why such a disconnect even exists in the first place. -coming next week And I hope that by the end, you’ll understand why I allocated 30% of my portfolio to this company. Opportunities like this are incredibly rare: the upside could be measured in multiples of the current price, while the downside appears limited due to the value of its proprietary assets.
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Jim Cramer
Jim Cramer@jimcramer·
S&P futures not taking into account earnings, all about oil and oil turns when Iran says getting close to a deal...
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Trading Cartel
Trading Cartel@Tradingcartel_X·
Cramer rotating from enterprise software to chips. China just banned Nvidia's export-compliant chip during Jensen's visit. Hedge funds already at record 19% semiconductor exposure. The rotation trade Cramer is calling is already the most crowded position on Wall Street. Inverse Cramer has a better track record than Cramer.
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Jim Cramer
Jim Cramer@jimcramer·
Time to sell enterprise software on chip resurgence after nice pullback in chips???????????
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Andre Motta
Andre Motta@beyondthat_line·
@jimcramer This guy is an imbecil. What is he doing on X or CNBC?
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Jim Cramer
Jim Cramer@jimcramer·
Really what was Intel doing down hard at the opening after Lip-Bu said he has tremendous CPU demand!!!
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Andre Motta
Andre Motta@beyondthat_line·
@DrPatrick You will be saving so many of my friends' lives who live with cancer today! God bless you!
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Dr. Pat Soon-Shiong
Dr. Pat Soon-Shiong@DrPatrick·
It’s been quite a day. News coming soon re our sBLA response from FDA. Stay tuned.
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Andre Motta
Andre Motta@beyondthat_line·
@jimcramer You have dementia. You are all over the place. Take these stupid messages to your funk dumb club. What an asshole!!! Stop using X!!
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Jim Cramer
Jim Cramer@jimcramer·
Many data center builders initially got away with damaging the environment. Each town must be sure to demand strict adherence to pollution rules. Ask for what your town needs. If they won't give it, then let them go elsewhere.
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Andre Motta
Andre Motta@beyondthat_line·
@jimcramer Leopold has a way better return than you and your stupid club! I followed you since the late 90s. You never got closer to his return in 2025 and now in 2026 in any year since you starting your career. Sorry, that's just reality!
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Jim Cramer
Jim Cramer@jimcramer·
Good rotation while it lasted. Leopold--scare, old puts do not a great trade make...
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Andre Motta
Andre Motta@beyondthat_line·
@jimcramer Stop tweeting! You are all over the place today. You do not make any sense this morning. Check your self on a hospital, might be dementia.
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Jim Cramer
Jim Cramer@jimcramer·
Meanwhile private equity stocks under attack again...
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Andre Motta
Andre Motta@beyondthat_line·
@KaroSaryan @ZeeContrarian1 Keith Meister can buy the entire company or sell it to another public company. He has enough funds to do it. That's what you are missing. His average cost as today is around $52/share. I do not think he would waste $60M.
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karo saryan
karo saryan@KaroSaryan·
@ZeeContrarian1 What if reimbursement doesn't recover quickly, the company may need to raise capital which at these share prices would be highly dilutive, what else am i missing?
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Z@ZeeContrarian1·
$WGS
Insider Monkey@insidermonkey

$46.8M Insider Buy: $WGS Director Keith Meister bought 1,205,147 shares of GeneDx across May 7-11 for $46.8M through Corvex Management. This is the single largest insider buy we've flagged this entire week. Meister is one of the most prominent activist investors of his generation. Carl Icahn's former right-hand man (CEO of Icahn Enterprises 2003-2010), he founded Corvex Management in 2010 with $250M and built it into a ~$3B AUM activist fund. His track record includes campaigns at Williams Companies, ADT, Pandora, Motorola, Yum! Brands, and MGM Resorts. This isn't a new position. WGS was already Corvex's #3 holding at year-end 2025 (3.06M shares, $398M, 12.16% of the fund). Meister has held through the entire 70% YTD decline and is now adding ~$47M after the May 4 earnings disaster, growing the fund's WGS position by roughly 45%. The Q1 print triggered a wave of PT cuts: BTIG $170→$90, Craig-Hallum $153→$85, Guggenheim $100→$70, Canaccord $100→$75, TD Cowen $60→$55. But all maintained Buy ratings. Consensus PT post-cuts sits in the $75-100 range, implying ~88-150% upside from current ~$40. Cathie Wood's ARK has also been buying the dip. The operational picture isn't broken: exome/genome test volume +34% YoY, core revenue +27% YoY, adjusted gross margin held at 69%, $25M opex reduction announced, FY26 adjusted profitability reaffirmed. The miss was reimbursement mix and non-core segments (Fabric Genomics). Meister has held WGS through a 70% decline and just added $47M more. Sell-side targets imply 100%+ upside from here.

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Andre Motta
Andre Motta@beyondthat_line·
@ZeeContrarian1 I would like to have your thoughts of piece of mind. I was an angry teen but it cooled off through the years. I love your teachings and messages. It helps to heal my soul. I am catholic by birth never really felt in love with it. Love your buddhist beliefs.
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Z@ZeeContrarian1·
Many times on X, I receive angry messages, sarcastic comments, or people trying to provoke me. Usually, when someone writes these things, they are carrying pain inside themselves. Maybe they lost money. Maybe they have family problems. Maybe life simply became too heavy. Life gives all of us many opportunities to become angry, so I understand it. Today, after a meditation session I had with a few Buddhist monks that come to lead a meditation session every couple of weeks, one of the monks told us a beautiful story that somehow connected deeply with this: -The Buddha and the Angry Man- One day, while the Buddha was walking with his disciples, a furious man rushed toward him. His face was burning with anger. His words were harsh and full of bitterness. He shouted, insulted, and tried again and again to provoke him. The disciples became upset. Some stepped forward and asked Buddha for permission to send the man away. But the Buddha remained calm… silent… unmoved, like a deep lake that stays still even when the wind blows across its surface. The man kept shouting until he had no strength left. And when silence finally fell, the Buddha gently asked him: “My friend, if someone offers you a gift, and you do not accept it… who does the gift belong to?” The man, surprised by the question, replied, “It belongs to the one who offered it.” The Buddha smiled and said: “In the same way, you came here to offer me anger, insults, and hatred. But I do not accept them. So they remain with you… not with me.” The man stood speechless. For the first time, he saw the truth clearly: Anger has no power… unless you chooses to receive it. My takeaway from this, Not every insult deserves a response. Not every argument deserves your energy. Sometimes the strongest thing you can do is remain calm and walk away with your peace. Let others keep their anger. You keep your peace.
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Andre Motta
Andre Motta@beyondthat_line·
Biotech looks very attractive!
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Andre Motta
Andre Motta@beyondthat_line·
@JG_Nuke @rdd147 If he is selling, he will have lost lots of money, look the Msft chart in the last 6 months. Not sure about this claim. The guy is smart.
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Nobody Special
Nobody Special@JG_Nuke·
@rdd147 If I’ve learned anything about Bill Ackman over the years, it’s that if he’s on CNBC saying he’s buying $MSFT it means he already bought it and he’s now selling.
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Roger
Roger@rdd147·
Bill Ackman reveals he’s the only person in the world buying $MSFT when everyone else is selling. Microsoft 13F disclosures rating Un-impressive to Slight Disaster
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Andre Motta
Andre Motta@beyondthat_line·
@JesseCohenInv This is not a real dip. But US bond yields are moving up the entire 24 hrs. We will need a TACO to go through this one. I think investors are overacting at the gold miners this was amplified by being a high OPEX Day, software and biotech are defense plays here, look attractive.
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Jesse Cohen
Jesse Cohen@JesseCohenInv·
Who's buying the dip?
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Andre Motta
Andre Motta@beyondthat_line·
@ZeeContrarian1 I was going to buy even more this morning but it just skyrocket.
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Z@ZeeContrarian1·
Ladies and gentlemen, we have liftoff 🚀 $IMDX +15% today.
Z@ZeeContrarian1

$IMDX Investment Thesis Share Price: 3.8 Market Cap: $135M Last Capital Raise: 12 Feb $5.75 per share Regulatory Approval: Q3 2026 Cash Runway: Mid to Late 2027 Approval odds: 70% A couple of months ago I recommended STAAR Surgical Company ( $STAA ), it’s now up 55%+ since. That work was heavily facilitated by the clarity of the thesis, in part shaped by Broadwood Capital, so I dug deeper into them. What stands out is their pattern. Highly concentrated bets held through long periods of doubt. Look at Monster Beverage ( $MNST) and Axon Enterprise ( $AXON). Both required patience and delivered monstrous returns in the thousands of percentages. Not obvious winners early, just misunderstood situations that needed time. That pattern led me to $IMDX. Broadwood owns roughly 40% and has recently started adding aggressively again, almost weekly. Their average cost is well above the current market price, which makes this accumulation particularly notable. At first glance, $IMDX looks like a broken small cap biotech. That’s because it was. The old oncology strategy failed, followed by cash burn, dilution, and a full reset. What exists today is a focused company targeting a very real problem, transplant rejection. Right now, patients are monitored with biopsies. Invasive, painful, infrequent. $IMDX replaces that with a blood test that detects rejection early by measuring donor DNA. This isn’t theoretical, the science works. The real question is distribution. Most competitors rely on centralized labs. $IMDX is building a kit based model that allows hospitals to run the test themselves. That’s where Bio-Rad Laboratories ( $BIO ) becomes critical. Bio-Rad is a multi billion dollar company with PCR machines already sitting in labs globally. $IMDX plugs directly into that infrastructure. But more importantly, the relationship is structured. Bio-Rad is an equity holder, initially structured around ~9.99% ownership. They have participated in financings and have contractual rights tied to commercialization. The existing Bio-Rad agreement positions them as a natural source of additional capital post-approval, with a clear pathway to increase their ownership, and potentially evolve into a broader strategic outcome, including a buyout, if commercialization is successful. $BIO benefits from every test run. That alignment matters. This is not a typical microcap that needs to scramble for capital post approval. There is already a strategic partner embedded in the cap table with both incentive and optionality to go bigger. The most recent capital raise was about $26M at $5.75 per share in February 2026. That is a strong reference point for where informed capital stepped in, we are currently ~ $4. The stock was roughly double a couple of months ago, driven by anticipation around FDA progress and growing awareness of the transplant diagnostics space. Then reality set in. Time passed, capital was raised, dilution came in, and the stock pulled back. Not because the thesis broke, but because execution takes time and funding. Now we are back at the interesting part. $IMDX is approaching a major catalyst, with Phase 3 and FDA related outcomes expected in less than 150 days. The probability of approval is relatively high because this is a diagnostic built on validated biology, making outcomes more predictable than traditional biotech drugs. So what you have here is a reset company, a real medical need, a scalable distribution model, a strategic partner with embedded upside optionality, and a fund with a history of multi thousand percent winners owning roughly 40% and adding again at current levels. This is not a clean story. It is a transition. If it works, it can be a 3 to 10x. This will be nothing new for Broadwood. Portfolio Allocation: 6%

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