chet morton
8.3K posts
chet morton
@chetmorton
WARNING: Nerd; Please no DMs unless I personally know you; Follow/RT/Like do not imply endorsement; Blocks/Mutes do not imply dis-endorsement; ☮️
Not where you are Katılım Mayıs 2008
1.3K Takip Edilen329 Takipçiler
@dschwa8059 I have Pinter too but am not a fan. I think his sections are way too short with not material in it to fully understand the concepts. I am teaching myself Abstract Algebra using John Fraleigh's book (6th edition) and frequently visiting Gallian book for examples.
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Winner winner chicken dinner @Salkou has won the package! Congratulations Francois and thank you to all who played. Stay tuned for the next free wax giveaway and have a great weekend everybody.
The Original Burnsie@burnsieoriginal
It’s that time of the month again and you know how it works. Like, retweet, & make sure you’re following @burnsieoriginal for your chance to win the wax and the cards. Good luck and thank you for playing!
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chet morton retweetledi
It’s that time of the month again and you know how it works. Like, retweet, & make sure you’re following @burnsieoriginal for your chance to win the wax and the cards. Good luck and thank you for playing!
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Is anybody up for some free wax or wha? It’s that time of the month again. Who wants it?
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@LiterateIndy Where in Martin County is/was Buttermilk Junction?
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Martin County, 1908.
LiterateIndy@LiterateIndy
April, 1937. Buttermilk Junction, Martin County, Indiana.
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@johnrroberts3 @alt_w_v_g Use chat on their website to negotiate. Quick!
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@alt_w_v_g The reality of your presentation came at the end: 47 minute cancellation torture. So many of us went through that and don’t ever want to experience it again. I actually liked SiriusXM. But won’t re-subscribe b/c it’s too torturous to cancel.
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Ran some diligence on SiriusXM this weekend
Not because anyone asked
Because my 14-year-old nephew connected his phone to my car via Bluetooth, played a Spotify playlist, and asked me what the "SXM" button was for
I didn't have an answer
So I pulled the 10-K
SiriusXM is an $8.56B revenue company with nearly $10B in debt and a $7.4B market cap
Read that again
The debt is larger than the company
Their business model, simplified:
1. Pay automakers to install radios nobody asked for
2. Give every new car buyer a free trial they didn't request
3. Hope they forget to cancel
4. Charge them $25.99/month for something their phone does for $10.99
That's it. That's the model.
They have 33M subscribers. Sounds impressive until they lost 301,000 self-pay subscribers last year. And hundreds of thousands the year before that.
Revenue has declined three consecutive years
The average subscriber is 35-64, male, household income over $150K. Over half have been paying for 10+ years.
These aren't loyal customers
These are people whose spouses haven't noticed the $25.99 charge on the Amex yet
The crown jewel of the portfolio is Howard Stern. They pay him roughly $100M a year. He works three days a week. His show averages 125K daily listeners.
That's $800 per listener per year
My analyst did the math three times because he thought he was wrong
He wasn't
For that price, you could buy each listener a Spotify family plan, an Audible subscription, and still have enough left for AirPods
Speaking of Spotify. Nearly 290M premium subscribers. Growing double digits. $10.99/month. Available on every device ever made.
SiriusXM. 33M subscribers. Shrinking. $25.99/month. Requires a satellite.
Spotify's full-year revenue grew 19%. SiriusXM's declined 2%.
Spotify trades at 74x earnings. SiriusXM trades at 5x.
The market is not confused about which direction these businesses are headed
Their growth strategy is called the "trial funnel." There are 7.3M people driving cars with free SiriusXM trials. The conversion rate is not publicly disclosed.
Probably because it's embarrassing
They have 180M "enabled vehicles" in the U.S. They have 33M subscribers. That's an 18% attach rate on hardware they already paid to install.
82% of the cars with their radios in them are generating zero revenue
In any other industry an 18% hit rate gets you fired
In satellite radio, it gets you a seat on the NYSE
Adjusted EBITDA margin is 31%. Looks healthy. Until you realize "adjusted" is doing a LOT of heavy lifting in a company that posted a $2.08B net loss the year prior.
Adjusted EBITDA was $2.73B that same year
The distance between those two numbers is called addbacks
And they're working overtime
2026 guidance: flat revenue, flat EBITDA, slightly fewer subscribers. The CEO called this stability and meaningful progress.
On Wall Street, we call this managed decline
Warren Buffett owns 35.4% of this company. This is the most confusing part. The man who said "be fearful when others are greedy" bought a satellite radio company in the age of Bluetooth.
His entry was a Liberty Media arb play that accidentally became a long-term hold. The stock is down over 50% from its highs.
I don't know why he's still in. You don't know why. His shareholders definitely don't know why.
The bull thesis: SiriusXM has 33M people who have been paying $15/month for a decade and have no plans to stop. That's $6B in recurring revenue from people who may not even remember they're subscribed. Churn is 1.5%. Lower than most SaaS companies.
The bear thesis: Every teenager alive today has never used a car radio
Both are probably right
SiriusXM's competitive moat is not content. It's not technology. It's not brand.
It's the 47 minutes it takes to cancel over the phone
SiriusXM isn't a bad company. It's a case study in what happens when your moat is consumer apathy and your growth strategy requires General Motors.
Plz fix. Thx.
Sent from my iPhone
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@loveherlethergo WTF is this AI slop? People are so fucking gullible 🙄
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Or instead of playing with vomit you can just throw the dog on the grill for a few minutes.
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Never even heard a rock song until high school
METAVERZUZ@METAVERZUZ
Yes or No: Your taste in music was influenced by your parents.
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Him: You look beautiful tonight.
Her: You been drinking?
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Why do I see the same tweet 479 times in one day, but when I go back to find one I've seen it's just *poof* disappeared off the face of the internet?
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