Coinviction

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Ex-Point72 Proprietary Research Head Kirk McKeown on building edge, alpha decay, & why everything that happened on Wall Street is about to happen on Main Street. Kirk McKeown (8.5 years @ Point72 under Steve Cohen | Built primary research at Glenview under Larry Robbins | Now founder of Carbon Arc @CarbonArcAI) "Alpha rewards those who value assets in a cold way. You want to get it right — not be right." We cover: - How alpha creation differs across multi-manager vs. concentrated shops - The 3 vectors every middle office function must move to justify its existence - Why he worked 6-hour Sundays from 2006-2020 — and the math behind it - The TSMC call that signaled semiconductor cancellations before anyone else knew - What the quant revolution on Wall Street tells us about the AI economy today - His framework: 4 market structures, 9 business models, & why they have rules - The MIT beer game & why every business problem is really an inventory problem - His hot take: a top hedge fund launches an enterprise AI lab in 2026 Highlights: 00:00 Intro 04:47 Tutor vs Glenview vs Point72: how edge differs 12:29 How to build “lift” for PMs: at-bats, hit-rate, sizing 18:44 Building research edge: outwork, read, fieldwork 27:16 Personal moat in 2026: analogs, history, decision trees 40:08 “Main Street becomes Wall Street”: what that actually means 44:30 Carbon Arc thesis: “decimalization” of data market structure 46:43 Why the edge migrates to data plus domain context 51:00 How to win in commoditized research: sample size beats anecdotes 01:03:26 Factorizing everything: themes, market structure, business models 01:08:37 Pruning decision trees: signals, scale points, inventory dynamics 01:14:18 Contrarian 2026 take: hedge funds launching enterprise AI labs 01:23:32 Final question: one habit to build career alpha

I continue to think $HROW is one of the most undervalued / mispriced growth stocks in the entire market. $HROW is down -33% in the past couple weeks, now trading at 15x NTM ev/ebitda... despite management saying CY2026 revenues will be up +32% YoY (midpoint of guidance) and ebitda will be up +45% YoY (midpoint of guidance). Management said multiple times in the shareholder letter and the earnings call that this guidance is conservative. If you are interested in $HROW or already have a position, I strongly encourage you to listen to the CEO from yesterday's presentation at the Leerink Healthcare conference... event.summitcast.com/view/mT9poctHD… During this presentation, Mark (founder & CEO) said their current guidance is "base case" for CY2026. I used to tell my subs that I'm always looking for breadcrumbs... Mark dropped some big ones during this presentation. I'm listening to it for the second time right now. Not only is $HROW expecting approval next month on a new indication, but he said they're presenting data in July for Izeeho that he thinks can 4x their market share. Then he said G-Melt could be in market within the next 18-24 months and has the potential to become their biggest revenue product ever. CEO also said they are doubling the size of their sales teams over the next 3-6 months because the ROI of having better coverage in more markets is just too obvious. Mark continues to say they can get to $250M in quarterly revenues by CY2027 Q4, which implies approx $1B in CY2028 revenues. Right now $HROW is expecting CY2026 ebitda margins of 26%, if anyone knows biopharma companies and margins... as they scale revenues from here, those margins will get much better. It's very possible $HROW has 35-40% ebitda margins in CY2028 at which point they could be generating $350-400M of ebitda... right now the current enterprise value is $1.5B... so it's possible that $HROW is currently trading at just 4x CY2028 ev/ebitda not including all the cash they'll generate over the next few years. I honestly think $HROW has the potential to be a 5-bagger over the next 3 years. NFA. DYOR. *We own $HROW at @FirstWaveFund; as of this morning it's now a top 8 position.