cryptojunky🫡

I took a reasonably-sized position in $PREDI @PredictBase yesterday before the crash. Here's my thesis: - $PREDI is misunderstood. The market treats it like an ai agent or bot token for @predibot_. But it's actually a prediction markets platform token for @PredictBase with value accrual flowing to $PREDI. First, PredictBase has 2% fees on every bet and 25% of that is used for $PREDI buybacks and burn. Second, PredictBase has a market creation fee where 50% of that fee burns $PREDI. The team literally wrote "more platform revenue = more buyback and burns for $PREDI holders." The team needs to do a better job of framing $PREDI as a platform token, not a bot/agent token, but I think they'll do so going-forward. - $PREDI is trading at $6.3 million circulating and $12.6 million FDV. By comparison, $LMTS @trylimitless is trading before its TGE pre-market at $550 million - $800 million FDV. Admittedly, $LMTS liquidity and volume on premarkets is too thin to mean much. But the gap between the top two prediction markets on Base ($12.6 million vs $550 million) is astronomical and will get closer over time. $PREDI is roughly a couple months behind Limitless in development and liquidity, which is not enough to justify such a large difference in the FDVs. - Prediction Markets as a whole are a growing market for everyone involved. $PREDI doesn't need to win prediction markets or even become a viable third option to Polymarket or Kalshi for price to go up considerably in the next year. We have several years of everyone wins before consolidation wipes out the weaker players. - Prediction Markets as a whole have a mainstream narrative. Look at the amount of news coverage given to merely one alleged insider with a $10k trade on the Taylor Swift market. There was also a suggestion on the most recent @blockworks podcast @empirepod from @HadickM that Polymarket's founder will go on 60 Minutes, the ultimate boomer news show. Unclear if it was a joke or real, but that's the type of mainstream exposure I expect for prediction markets going-forward. - Crypto is the only viable way to invest in prediction markets right now. There's no way for most people to get exposure to prediction market platform upside except crypto and, maybe, $ICE stock since it invested $2 billion in Polymarket. - The PredictBase platform works well, they have a solid starting point to build further from here.

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