Dennis Montoro

So you want to bet for a living? A short thread on my first 4 months as a full-time bettor. I've done this in the past, but I like to journal my thoughts, observations, etc as it relates to betting. 1/15

@goldenpants013 @Sports__Proj I recently learned people who have real jobs and use Claude/LLM's may have to share their transcripts. What is the worst thing you've ever said to Claude that you wouldn't want to share with your boss?

Huge week as @Sports__Proj makes a triumphant return to the pod while some great news items pop off. Please leave any questions you have below - main topic will be dead originating edges we will go over in some detail

Balance went up in the ADW account, "hmmm, what did I hit" - late scratch of the one horse. Small victories.

@PlusEVAnalytics @robpizzola If and when these things come alive, they're coming for me first based on my transcripts

@robpizzola I'm getting there. "No shit, Sherlock, that's why I'm asking you"

The state of things: I'm currently giving a pep talk to a robot

@Pullthepocket Sounds familiar, yet it “doesn’t” have a CAW problem

@Sports__Proj @NickPreszler @goldenpants013 When 🐎 racing episode?

@NickPreszler @goldenpants013 good news they are inventing a new way to get courtsided

Watch this clip. Now imagine if you could trade the Kentucky Derby’s parimutuel market while the race was happening. Users would receive a known minimum return, rather than waiting until the market closes to see what their payout could be. They can switch their position or leave the market entirely if they didnt like their position. The track would generate more revenue by allowing trading and provide a more engaging experience for the viewer. This is what the Parimutuel Market Maker will unlock. With the PMM you can: - bootstrap liquidity for a market of any topic - guarantee a minimum return in a parimutuel market - trade a market while the event is happening This is the future of how all events, large and small, will be traded. Coming soon to @meleemarkets

@derby1592 @KENTUCKY Does he need a job?

My Grandson Henry is the smartest, most amazing 5-year-old I have ever met. Meet Henry and enjoy his analysis of this year’s @Kentucky Derby :-)

I think I posted this as a joke in the past and had to delete it because people were bookmarking the post. Always funny to look back at your betting "models" from 20 years ago. Rob's was probably a little more profitable than mine. Don't bookmark this.

Great book from @derby1592 . My thoughts: Not a step by step how-to book. Rather, Chris provides a solid representation of the current landscape along with many relevant topics covered. It’s really a collection of ideas and thought process of many players trying to solve the same problem with various approaches. Best kind of book IMO because it helps me generates new ideas as I read through the many different topics covered.

You WILL be adversely selected. Love a horse to win at 10 cents? What happens when I post an order at 5 cents because I know something you don’t? I’m not even going to discuss the potential integrity issues.

Price discovery would be improved compared to parimutuel. Obv pricing is much better compared to takeout, but I can’t see tight spreads with how much natural uncertainty is built into racing. How much rec flow would there actually be? I question the liquidity. (2/3)

Let’s play fantasyland and say Kalshi can overcome IHA and lists yes/no win markets on daily races: The CAWs aren’t going anywhere. In fact, they market make and supply liquidity. Guess who is on the other side of your sports betting trade right now? (1/3)

Maybe it's the Kiwi accent, but Ship has the natural ability to say something incredibly simple, yet it speaks volumes. I've always walked away from any conversation with him with new ideas/perspective. Good conversation with Rob about being malleable with models, live betting spots, and price uncertainty opportunities.

@goldenpants013 Where’s the cat GP?

For all of you relying on AI for advice.

@EJXD2 My point more driven by shrinking handle and how that distributes by day of week. And since you track that, it should be apparent some days are going to have better ROI than others for obvious reasons.

@dennycaps1 One thing I learned a few years ago is not to play (at all seriously) if I'm distracted. E.g., no trying to play tickets when at the mall with the kids. Definitely worth looking at by day, but looking at it "by distraction" was definitely illuminating

Race, wager, and bonus/rebate selection are all part of the horseplaying process. Gamifying my approach in 2025 led to a slightly better year. Annual ROI = -6.67%. Last 10 years = -9% horseracingnation.com/news/Betting_t…

@goldenpants013 @Sports__Proj A lot of the earliest market-based betting models were developed in horse racing, long before modern sports analytics. Why do you think so few people like you end up exploring racing? Loaded question, but I would appreciate the discussion

Alright friends - that time of the week. Myself and @Sports__Proj are looking for questions for this week's podcast. Drop them in the comments - and thank you to anyone who asks/ who has asked a question!

Great discussion on this question. I don’t believe there is a correct answer. Well calibrated probably worth more in general but directionally correct still worth a lot if you don’t have liquidity issues. Parimutuel pools are similar to PM’s where an information disadvantage will blow up your calibration. But quantifying that uncertainty is worth a lot. Directionally correct approach is limited by pool sizes

@goldenpants013 @Sports__Proj Would you rather have a model that is well calibrated and winning OR a model that is directionally correct with a seemingly larger edge?

Alright all - @Sports__Proj and I are looking for questions for this weeks podcast. Since this will be our last pod w/ just the two of us this year - we would love to let it rip and get to as many as possible. Appreciate everyone who asks questions - huge boost to the pod!