Gene Coderre retweetledi
Russia is going to lose this war. Maybe not this year or next, but the trajectory is set.
Ukraine has turned this into a drone-driven attritional fight. By the end of 2025, it was producing over 1 million drones a year, with a goal of 2 million. The estimated tipping point for crippling Russia’s operations is around 1.6 million annually. At $400 to $1,500 per drone, that is doable.
Russia’s core problem is manpower. Drones don’t hold territory, soldiers do. Exposed human soldiers have to move across ground to take it. That instantly makes them a target.
Since the invasion began, Russia has taken 800,000 to 1.3 million casualties. In 2025 alone, 120,000 to 180,000. They’re paying up to $30,000 per recruit, and both the pool and the budget is shrinking.
Meanwhile, territorial gains have been measured in dozens of kilometers at enormous cost. Ukraine just has to maintain denial. Unless Vladimir Putin orders a risky full mobilization, Russia’s battlefield capacity will keep eroding.
Over time, that math doesn’t work in Moscow’s favor.
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