@Bedlington312 @policytensor I'm confused. The OPs declaring victory?
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gr8statsbatman
1.9K posts
@policytensor There’s no deal yet. Iran hasn’t confirmed. I remember when Iran agreed to open the strait in April and never opened it. Maybe wait before declaring victory.
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How is the escalation trap working out?
Robert A. Pape@ProfessorPape
Trump is sending a clear message: The war is NOT over The next shock is coming, Including to the world economy See new post at Escalation Trap
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@iMessaage_ As long as the chimney is high enough above the roof and is unobstructed it will draw well. I wonder if companies actually try to sell this ridiculous design?
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@XiomaraSH1 @Vincentt1987 Si… creo que seria dificil de entender para ti ya que eres un ser no trabajante… pero en cualquier trabajo encontraras que la mayoria de la gente toma atajos para hacer que el trabajo sea facil lo que hace ver a alguien haciendo exactamente lo que se supone sea algo raro…mamon
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@KhoaVuUmn Right? I know friends that are here completely legally, and they're afraid to go to the airport!
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@DaleBetterton @billybinion You mentioned putting him prison where he belongs...without even the thought of the government having to prove anything. God, what has happened to your party? Just sad!
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@gr8statsbatman @billybinion Illegal aliens can be deported without a full "beyond a reasonable doubt" criminal trial.
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This is big. Vindictive prosecution claims almost never succeed.
So many pundits misunderstand this case. Kilmar Abrego Garcia agreed to be deported to Costa Rica nearly a year ago. He could be long gone.
But the government was furious that he refused to plead guilty to this indictment. So the administration reversed course and has spent months trying to punish Abrego Garcia by sending him to various African countries, none of which have agreed to accept him.
If you're angry Abrego Garcia is still here, then you should be angry at the Trump administration, whose actions have kept him in the country out of spite and vindictiveness.
Tyler McBrien@TylerMcBrien
NEW: A federal judge in Tennessee has GRANTED Kilmar Abrego Garcia's motion to DISMISS for vindictive prosecution. (h/t Lawfare's Peter Beck)
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@sunfunjjj @BarbMcQuade Crazy how the right has completely abandoned principles that this country was founded on, like rule of law and the requirement to prove things in court.
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This is why no one takes you seriously. The Obama appointed judge has the same room temperature IQ and logic as Katanji Brown Jackson. Trump ultimately is the winner because the left siding with gang members is gonna play against the left. I’m starting to wonder if you pulled a Kamala Harris/ Willie Brown act to get your job.
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Court dismisses Kilmer Abrego Garcia case for vindictive prosecution, finding charges were filed in retaliation for his habeas corpus petition. DOJ is destroying its presumption of regularity.
politico.com/news/2026/05/2… politico.com/news/2026/05/2…
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@DaleBetterton @billybinion Crazy how the right has completely abandoned principles that this country was founded on, like rule of law and the requirement to prove things in court.
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@billybinion If the left hadn't made a wife-beating, human trafficking, MS-13 Gang member into "Maryland Man" hero fighting the evil Trump, this would have never happened either. He could be in prison where he belongs.
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@Rory_Johnston If it's through CBS it's definitely a trial balloon.
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“The Trump administration was preparing Friday for a fresh round of military strikes against Iran …
Some members of the U.S. military and intelligence community canceled their plans for the Memorial Day weekend in anticipation of possible strike, several sources said.”
🫠
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@gr8statsbatman @Jabaluck Sociological defeatism sucks.
The real danger is social adoption of this shortsighted take.
ASI will provide answers but the fractal nature of knowledge cannot provide everything, all at once.
I’ll credit you tho for accurately representing ‘The Lump of Innovation Fallacy’!
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I suspect math will be like Chess and Go due to verifiability. The period of fruitful collaboration between humans and AI will be short (i.e. a few years or less, not a decade). Progress in math will be jagged, with harder to formalize fields coming last, but I suspect this jaggedness will be compressed in time -- I expect superhuman performance at (nearly?) all areas of math within a few years (a few = 2-3?).
AIs will also be better at asking pure math questions than humans, and will quickly develop theories beyond human comprehension.
Human theorists will have a recreational comparative advantage over other humans in understanding these theories, but AIs will be better at communicating these theories to applied researchers. Pure mathematicians will need to become applied researchers to do productive work, until applied research is also automated.
Confidence level for prediction: 50-65% for gist, 40-50% for all above claims being correct.
Scott Kominers@skominers
Wild that an LLM autonomously disproved the unit-distance conjecture 🤯 But it’s also striking to me that, almost immediately after seeing the construction, a human mathematician was able to improve it further. Speaks to the potential of human–AI collaboration in math, QED 🔲
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@gr8statsbatman @Jabaluck This is retarded. Solving one thing opens ten more things to solve.
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@Davermillion @Jabaluck Im sorry Dave that I had an opinion.
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@gr8statsbatman @Jabaluck Are you going to say the same when we cure cancer? Problems should be solved if they can. Finding the solution is the dream. Repeatedly failing to solve a problem is not the dream.
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@Marshal42285771 @Jabaluck Kind of. But I just haven't been that impressed with AI creatively writing things. Sure it can write a good explication..but a novel that's good? I'm not convinced. I asked it to write me a Norm Macdonald style bit once and it was horrible.
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Terraforming planets… the challenges are endless and the AI projection is in any case almost certainly an over-estimate
gr8statsbatman@gr8statsbatman
@Jabaluck It's just sad that so many young students that dreamed of solving things that haven't been solved may now be left without that dream. That changes things for the worse IMO.
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@mattyglesias Maybe in the future if AI dramatically increases productivity, but to me the pandemic did a lot to scare me about MMT. (don't attack me it's just my opinion)
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I want to bring back MMT and discuss the macroeconomic implications of financing an ongoing stream of new social services with a tax on unconsumed wealth.
How are the real resources being reallocated in this scenario?
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@SarahLongwell25 Plus, they want to install Baghdad Bob as their chief diplomat.
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Wut? No, seriously. What?
Farnaz Fassihi@farnazfassihi
BIG SCOOP: US-Israel goal was to install former President Ahmadinejad as Iran's leader (aka Delcy) An Israeli strike designed to free him from house arrest was part of an effort to bring about regime change and put him in power. w/ @MarkMazzettiNYT @julianbarnes @ronenbergman nytimes.com/2026/05/19/us/…
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@HistoryBoomer You're crazy. Hamilton is a great example. And you know what? There's nothing wrong with it. The right is soo thin skinned. (not saying that you are a member of the right)
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Yes, I get it, there has been something of a double standard with casting.
But people keep showing Gosling as President Obama.
That is a very pointed jab, but I know of no films with black actors as white presidents. For the jab to work, shouldn't there be a black Reagan?
In other words, while there may be issues, the genre of films that this image is spoofing (major biopics of modern figures) have not been cast color-blind. This is why we haven't seen Denzel play Nixon (and he would be awesome).
Carl@HistoryBoomer
People keep sharing this because they're angry that supposedly black actors can take white roles, but not the reverse. But has the reverse happened? Has Don Cheedle played Ronald Reagan? Has Denzel Washington played Richard Nixon? (Btw, Denzel as Nixon would totally slap.)
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@SarahLongwell25 This all comes together like an elaborate Thanksgiving dinner. Everyone's playing their role to make this happen. Too bad we'll all get food poisoning in the end!
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@Rory_Johnston It's just astonishing to me how easily this market is jawboned. When I started watching markets in the 1990s it certainly wasn't that way. Things have changed in a huge way!
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Largest weekly US crude stock draw on record confirmed.
Crude price:
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@JasonSmithyIII @gbrew24 I agree that our options are pretty limited. We've pretty much killed the possibility of true diplomacy because we've demonstrated that we can't be trusted, plus we've killed a lot of people. I just think a ground war would be a disaster.
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@gr8statsbatman @gbrew24 Well, the time to worry about that was before the orange numpty decided to attack. He's got the US into a terrible position.
If you decide to start a war you need to be prepared to follow through. All options on the table now are awful tbh.
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US options, as of today:
-accept terms laid out by Iran: end war and blockade, offer up-front sanctions relief and unfrozen funds, agree to discuss nuclear issues in second stage with no commitment on long enrichment pause or surrender of HEU.
-resume bombing
-unilaterally withdraw
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