Allemande

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Allemande

@henry48264

Professional & licensed bean counter | Banking | Be Water Capital | Anti Fed Put | East meet west | Long America & freedom | My views only

Katılım Nisan 2009
532 Takip Edilen39 Takipçiler
Allemande
Allemande@henry48264·
Great analogy using water today in Early Look today. Go with the flow instead of what you think should be. That's how process works (flow and ebb in fractals term). "You put water into a cup, it becomes the cup. You put water into a bottle, it becomes the bottle. You put it in a teapot, it becomes the teapot. Now water can flow, or it can crash. Be water my friend." - Bruce Lee.
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Keith McCullough
Keith McCullough@KeithMcCullough·
Today is not a day to do nothing
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Allemande
Allemande@henry48264·
@KeithMcCullough Am I mistaken one of major index RR has not changed for five days in the daily RR? Are you testing subs?
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Keith McCullough
Keith McCullough@KeithMcCullough·
In today's Early Look: "Crazy #Quad2?" How many people in our profession are going to say "this market's crazy" today? Lots. It usually means they're missing the moves (or they don't realize they're the ones being crazy). One of the craziest assumptions you can have about markets is that they always make fundamental sense. They don't. They make fractal sense. Those are very different things.
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Allemande
Allemande@henry48264·
@KeithMcCullough Did anyone ask about $XTL since it was put on the ETF list? Taking immediate action when an ETF get on the list is serious alpha generator. ATH is a long time.
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Allemande
Allemande@henry48264·
A seemingly very casual line in yesterday's Early Look that doesn't get enough attention apparently. Thought a lot about this last night. Deductive reasoning well put together are often valid and could sound really smart but hinges on premises that could be false. Hence, fractal (inductive) is superior over any other types of processes.
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Keith McCullough
Keith McCullough@KeithMcCullough·
Deductive reasoning about markets is a great way to go broke with confidence
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Michael Every
Michael Every@TheMichaelEvery·
Read this via the translate button immediately. It doesn’t mean it’s necessarily all correct. Yet to dismiss what we are now seeing as just ‘Trump chaos’ rather than part of a U.S. plan —at least as a fallback option if Iran didn’t ‘do a Venezuela’— is very naive.
Anas Alhajji@anasalhajji

🛑ماذا يريد الرئيس ترمب؟ (أدناه بناء على تصريحاته) 🔰يريد أن يعيد صناعة الرقائق الإلكترونية وأشباه الموصلات للولايات المتحدة بدلا من إنتاجها في آسيا 🔰 يريد أن يبيع منتجات زراعية أميركية للهند، وهم أمر رفضه الهنود تمام. 🔰 يريد أن تقوم الشركات الآسيوية بتوقيع عقود غاز مسال طويلة المدة مع الشركات الأميركية وشراء المزيد من الغاز المسال الأميركي. 🔰يريد أن تقوم الدول الآسيوية بشراء المزيد من النفط الأميركي. (أدناه بناء على استراتيجة الأمن القومي التي نشرت في شهر نوفمبر الماضي) 🔰الهيمنة على العالم تتم عبر الذكاء الاصطناعي ووفرة إمدادات الطاقة، (ولكن لاذكاء صناعي بدون طاقة) 🔰الهيمنة على العالم تتطلب أن تكون الطاقة رخيصة لشركات الذكاء الاصطناعي الأميركية ومرتفعة على الدول المنافسة. 🔸ماسبق يتطلب السيطرة على كل المضائق المائية. تمت السيطرة على قناة بنما، والبحر الأحمر بطرفيه، والآن مضيق هرمز للتحكم بتدفق وتكاليف مصادر الطاقة للدول المنافسة. والمتبقي الممر الشمالي القريب من القطب، وهذا يتطلب السيطرة على جرينلاند. هل حقق ترمب الأهداف أعلاه؟ حققها كلها: 🪶وقف تصدير "الهليوم" من الخليج ضرب صناعة الشرائح الإلكترونية وأشباه الموصلات الآسيوية. الولايات المتحدة هي أكبر منتج للهليوم في العالم! 🪶وقف تصدير "الأسمدة" للهند، يضرب القطاع الزارعي في الهند. ولكن الأمر أكبر: صناعة الأسمدة داخل الهند تعتمد على الغاز والغازات السائلة من الخليج. هذه ضربت أيضا. هذا سيعطي ترمب فرصة لتحقيق هدف إجبار الهند على شراء المنتجات الزراعية الأميركية. 🪶وقف صادرات "الميثانول" من الخليج ضرب عددا من الصناعات في الصين وكوريا الجنوبية واليابان. 🪶اتضح الآن لكل الشركات الآسيوية ان المخاطرة على الاعتماد على "النفط والغاز المسال" من الخليج عالية، ومن ثم فإن التنويع يتطلب زيادة الاعتماد على النفط والغاز المسال الأميركيين. الولايات المتحدة هي أكبر منتج للنفط والغاز المسال في العالم. 🪶الآن اتضح أن ماحصل في فنزويلا وتكديس النفط الفنزويلي في المواني الأميركية كان للتعويض عن النفط العراقي الذي لن يأتي للولايات المتحدة بسبب إغلاق مضيق هرمز! كنت غبيا عندما اعتقدت أن ترمب وبيوت التجارة العالمية التي باعها النفط الفنزويلي يجدون صعوبة في تسويقه. إضافة إلى ذلك، هذه الشركات تبيعه الآن بضعف سعر الشراء! 🪶من خلال تقديم التأمين للسفن ومرافقة البحرية الأميركية لها في المضيق، هذا يعني أن ترمب أحتل المضيق بشكل غير مباشر وأصبح يتحكم بتدفق الطاقة للصين وغيرها، وتكاليف التأمين والحماية سترفع تكاليف النفط والغاز المسال المصدرين من الخليج. بعبارة أخرى، الهدف هو رفع التكلفة. باختصار، ترمب حقق كل أهدافه باستخدام إيران كحجة، لهذا فإنه يتوقع أن تنتهي الحرب مع بقاء النظام الإيراني!

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Allemande
Allemande@henry48264·
@KeithMcCullough Saw the dip in crude this AM. Check pin sheet (Risk range). Bought the damn dip.
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Keith McCullough
Keith McCullough@KeithMcCullough·
Oil / Energy / #quad1 While Tourists panic over crowded bubble stocks, we’re buying Energy on red Oil breaking out on TRADE + TREND as #Quad1 global demand accelerates. Latest adds: XOP, OIH, KSA. Panic is a CNBC feature, not a bug
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Allemande
Allemande@henry48264·
@KeithMcCullough Check this "intellect" out in the stinky business of picking bottoms (twice a day for the past month). Process and signals > IQ I'd say.
Allemande tweet media
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Keith McCullough
Keith McCullough@KeithMcCullough·
The People who didn't have much to begin with are losing everything in leverage pump/dump schemes like $MSTR $BMNR etc.
Keith McCullough tweet media
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Allemande
Allemande@henry48264·
@Ksidiii Because the $250k flow is levered buy while the $1M sell flow is on the underlying only which puts more upward pressure on the price of the assets.
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Kris Sidial🇺🇸
Kris Sidial🇺🇸@Ksidiii·
One interview question I have asked in the past is this: Let’s say there’s an asset priced at $10 There’s $1M in flow that is looking to sell There’s $250k in flow that is looking to buy I think the asset will go to $12, why is that?
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Allemande
Allemande@henry48264·
@KeithMcCullough Funny enough if you were to reduce yourself to become a bird watcher that just observe and has no emotional tilt, you would still do 100 times better than the tourists.
Allemande tweet media
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Keith McCullough
Keith McCullough@KeithMcCullough·
Human instinct is just pattern recognition with a recency bias and an emotional overlay. I'll take the fractals.
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Allemande
Allemande@henry48264·
@KeithMcCullough Small lesson on WHEN. Notice the very first question head trader (Will Emerson) asked when he found out things were going haywire was WHEN. Not why, not how, not where. youtu.be/7h_7-4991Eg?si…
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YouTube
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Keith McCullough
Keith McCullough@KeithMcCullough·
The "why" isn't wrong—it's just lagged. "Why" emerges after "when"
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Allemande
Allemande@henry48264·
@Ksidiii Today is the day I dust this educational post off from my bookmarks. All three conditions seem to be at play.
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Kris Sidial🇺🇸
Kris Sidial🇺🇸@Ksidiii·
Buying volatility is often a challenging endeavor for most traders. This is because volatility, by its nature, can move independently of broader market conditions. While absolute volatility pricing is crucial in a historical context, the key lies in identifying environments where volatility “carries well” versus those where it relentlessly drips lower. Consider this: you could buy an option priced at 16 vol and watch it lose money every single day, or you could buy the same vol and see your P&L remain sticky very close until expiration. The difference lies in the underlying market dynamics. While P&L attribution can be analyzed through second- and third-order Greeks, there are simpler, actionable strategies to help you identify “strong vol” that carries effectively. Here are a few: 1. Low Absolute Volatility In equity markets, there is often a “volatility floor” where risk premiums are unlikely to fall further. These regimes can be categorized and studied independently. As a general rule of thumb, using the $VIX as a benchmark: •Below 16: Relatively cheap •16–20: Fairly priced •20–30: Elevated •Above 30: Extreme Each of these buckets represents different market dynamics. In the “cheap” bucket, for example, the volatility surface tends to flatten, offering a cushion for long vol positions. If the $VIX is at 13 and the future is priced at 14, the downside risk might only be a vol point or two, while the upside potential could be substantial. 2. Realized Volatility Every option you buy includes a volatility risk premium—typically a few points higher than the realized volatility. When realized volatility is expanding, the market adjusts accordingly, ensuring that implied volatilities don’t trade too far below realized levels. This alignment helps improve the carry on your long volatility trade, as the premium you pay is more likely to be justified by actual market movement. 3. Sentiment This is often the most compelling signal when buying volatility. As my old boss used to say, “You never buy dead vol.” This advice holds true because certain catalysts—such as geopolitical events, earnings reports, or macroeconomic shifts—can keep volatility elevated and allow for nearly cost-free carry. The primary risk in these scenarios is a sudden headline that signals the event has passed. TLDR; When buying volatility with the expectation of making money, at least one of these factors needs to move in your favor. Without it, the trade is likely to struggle.
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Allemande
Allemande@henry48264·
@KeithMcCullough They will never pay attention to what the RR is on VIX never mind what TRR would be on a day like today.
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Allemande
Allemande@henry48264·
@KeithMcCullough That mean reversion catch up trade you mentioned seems to be hiding from plain sight from a lot of people. Am waiting on further confirmation before going big on it.
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Keith McCullough
Keith McCullough@KeithMcCullough·
If you're like us, and your Pile is still making all-time highs with Gold down on the day, well done That means you're diversified
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Keith McCullough
Keith McCullough@KeithMcCullough·
Forget “seasonality.” We play Bayesian ball → real-time signals, not baseball-card stats. Gold to ATHs. Silver +21% M/M. Platinum +17%. Energy ripping.
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Keşfet

@KeithMcCullough @johnkonrad @Hedgeye @hedgeye @TheMichaelEvery @elonmusk @BarackObama @taylorswift13