ieattaco

昨天巴菲特接受CNBC采访，全程只讲了一个重点： 美股估值依旧太高了，QQQ目前只跌📉了6%，SPY只跌📉了4.37%，老爷子说，继续耐心等待，大鱼在后面！🧐 我们来市场，不是为了赚那5%-6%的反弹的！ 我只能说，佩服巴菲特的耐心和魄力！🧐

Bayes’ theorem is probably the single most important thing any rational person can learn. So many of our debates and disagreements that we shout about are because we don’t understand Bayes’ theorem or how human rationality often works. Bayes’ theorem is named after the 18th-century Thomas Bayes, and essentially it’s a formula that asks: when you are presented with all of the evidence for something, how much should you believe it? Bayes’ theorem teaches us that our beliefs are not fixed; they are probabilities. Our beliefs change as we weigh new evidence against our assumptions, or our priors. In other words, we all carry certain ideas about how the world works, and new evidence can challenge them. For example, somebody might believe that smoking is safe, that stress causes mouth ulcers, or that human activity is unrelated to climate change. These are their priors, their starting points. They can be formed by our culture, our biases, or even incomplete information. Now imagine a new study comes along that challenges one of your priors. A single study might not carry enough weight to overturn your existing beliefs. But as studies accumulate, eventually the scales may tip. At some point, your prior will become less and less plausible. Bayes’ theorem argues that being rational is not about black and white. It’s not even about true or false. It’s about what is most reasonable based on the best available evidence. But for this to work, we need to be presented with as much high-quality data as possible. Without evidence—without belief-forming data—we are left only with our priors and biases. And those aren’t all that rational.

听说这是今天凌晨的水贝，都在抢银砖😂。 最近这几个月的水贝，大马路上都在卖金砖银砖，也是奇景。

We embraced the penguin and are giving away $5,000 in $PENGUIN 🐧 Just repost and make sure you’re following Winner in 24h

@cfldotfun robinlluu2002.skr

We're dropping Gacha Coins to 100 lucky people! ($20k value) 🪙 > drop your .SKR wallets below 👇 > follow @cfldotfun to qualify > 📸 72 hrs Next week, alongside the $SKR airdrop, you can WIN even MORE with our Gacha Coins. Spin them on our Gacha Machine for a chance to win prizes worth $20,000 from our sponsors. Sneak Peek: The @solanamobile Seeker Phone is one of them, alongside our 25+ ecosystem sponsors. 👀 *The 100 lucky winners will automatically receive the Gacha Coins in their .skr wallet once it's connected to the CFL game. Stay tuned for our upcoming announcements and sponsors lineup!

@mattlefun Robinlluu2002.skr

Visit: app.mattle.fun/seeker-airdrop Complete simple tasks: - Follow @mattlefun - Connect X and play 1 game - Like, repost, and reply to the post - Submit your reply URL

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@cz_binance @grok give @cz_binance less ugly looks and six pack

I need an AI that do all my calls, as me, say all the stuff I might say, and say none of the stuff I wouldn't say, and while at it, maybe with a slightly less ugly looks and a six pack. Can't be that hard, right?

Vida又赚疯了，顺手安利几个执行力爆棚的00后博主 元旦刷到大新闻：Vida又赚了100万美金。这次是BROCCOLI714黑客事件，一波直接变现百万刀。以前他还在币安ACT上，利用英文公告提前 7 秒布局，2 秒斩获 2400 万人民币，速度快得离谱。每次看他操作都觉得：真狠，执行力直接拉满。 我突然意识到，圈里一批00后都这样，年纪轻轻但通过努力赚了A8、A9。顺着这个热度，推荐几个我知道的00后博主。 1. Vida @Vida_BWE 方程式新闻创始人，套利之神。哪有风口往哪冲，反应快到变态。 学他：看到机会别想三天，先干了再说。 2. Pickle Cat @0xPickleCati 交易之神，2013年入行，币安合约排名第一，累计赚超400 BTC。靠的就是死磕策略，反复回测。 学他：别怕试错，错得越多调得越准。 3. EnHeng嗯哼 @EnHeng456 16岁入圈，BNB太子，从2万本金干到A8。社区玩得飞起，人脉就是钱脉。潜水观察员 @connectfarm1 评价，像是00后的孙割。 学他：多认识人，多向上社交，机会自然来。 4. Yuyue @yuyue_chris 投研博主，钻石手，研究特别深，a9到a10的路上一路稳。潜水观察员 @connectfarm1 评价，像是00后的万姨。 学他：少看盘，多看项目，别被短期波动带节奏。 5. 杀破狼WolfyXBT @wolfyxbt CHI Labs联合创始人，Web3数据大神，图表做得好看又准。 学他：用工具把复杂的事变简单，效率直接起飞。 6. 孤鹤.hl @ZKSgu Web3 AI和DeFi都玩得很深，Alpha抓得准，内容专业不水。 学他：每天逼自己学点新东西，复利吓人。 7. 二狗 @CryptoErgou BlockFocus那边的，中文圈顶级Agency，资源牛。 学他：单打独斗难，找靠谱队友一起卷。 8. Christian @Christianeth 思考型行动派，产品自己测、逻辑自己拉、客服自己上。从安全事件里爬出来，产品越做越稳。 学他：干完一定要复盘，迭代比努力更重要。 说真的，Vida这次百万刀不是运气，是执行力叠出来的结果。其他人也一样。 2026年第一天，与其羡慕，不如多分析分析他们背后赚钱的逻辑。执行力这东西，说破天就是：少bb，多干，干完复盘，再干。 你最想抄谁的作业？评论区说说，新的一年一起卷。

分享下我的做法： X 上的信息流管理起来很麻烦， 手动刷推效率低，为了避免信息被动投喂， 我一般是 利用 grok 的 tasks 主动获取AI前沿信息的。分享下我的SOP： 非常简单，打开grok.com/tasks grok网页版tasks，新建一个任务，告诉 grok： 每日早8点，推送24小时内ai领域的最新热点， 【详细的提示词我放在下面，你可以自己改动一下】 grok有内置的 X 接口， 没有其他的ai那么多幻觉，可以看到 每天都会自动化的推送到你的邮箱， 点开即可获取信息， 成为算法的主人。 详细的提示词是这个，自己复制即可使用： 能否帮我总结X平台24小时热门帖子20条，每日早8点推送，聚焦ai、科技、金融、美股领域，输出时，请按照“分类”整理，并提炼每条信息的核心价值，用一句话阐述，附上原始链接。输出格式：【中文分类】标题/核心事件：一句话总结（中文）。【原文链接及作者】

有一个行为让我猜到BROCCOLI714的黑客应该在收尾，因为他在中国时间4:28:15的时候还不计成本的买入了SOLUSDT的现货，大概拉升了5% >>> 又一次触发我提前设置的警报让我知道。 我猜测他当时已经部分账户被币安限制了不让在BROCCOLI714市场下新订单，所以狗急跳墙去买了SOL， 结果真的过了3分钟BROCCOLI价格就崩溃了

《复盘在刚才的BROCCOLI714黑客事件中赚了100万美元》 前置条件以及基础设施： - 我在0.016的成本有长期囤积一个BROCCOLI714的20万美元仓位，大概是今年11月初买的。现货+合约都有。买完之后就被套了，被套的都不敢去看。 - 之前10-11月份庄家操盘的风格是几小时里快速拉升然后一根大阴线立马出货，所以我给我的小币仓位都提前设置了一个1800秒内涨幅超过30%则吵醒我的提醒。 - 我还有一个开仓均价0.015左右的50万美元的BROCCOLI714USDT永续合约的币安合约资金费率套利仓位 当现货和合约的巨大价差发生时：我的短时间涨幅提醒程序和现货合约价差提醒程序都在疯狂的警报>让我开始全神贯注的跑到电脑面前开工。 我第一时间在带带的华语核心一个群里说了监测到这个情况： - 我的第一反应是赶紧去平我的资费套利仓位。因为我原本50万U的套利对冲仓位变成了现货价值80万U，合约50万U。我立马平仓所有套利头寸就能落袋为安30万U。 - 但是我想想觉得非常反常，因为历史上不会有庄家这样不管价差暴力拉升现货。我去看了一眼orderbook深度，震惊的发生币安现货的bid 10%深度挂了500万U买盘，而合约的bid 10%只有5万U深度。有人说怀疑有人币安账户被盗，我也觉得这很合理。 - 又看了一眼币安主站上的订单簿，震惊的发现BROCCOLI714这个当时市值40m的币，bid挂了2600万U。由此推断一定是有人账户被盗了或者做市程序出bug，因为不会有庄家傻不拉几的这么做慈善，没有庄家会在现货市场上这么玩。

1900年代だろうか 昔はマジックや サーカスと言って 本物を 出してたんだろうね 😱ひぇ〜！

Hi this is my submission! Doopies smush together into a giant robot to fight the predators! @drip_haus @doodles @burnttoast