Leo Tesler

2026 MLB Season Predictions, a 🧵: Once again, I’ve spent my winter deep in the spreadsheets, using my own models and public data/projections to look ahead at the coming season. Here’s a quick breakdown of each team’s predicted record and a few players to watch:

Beautiful day for @JordanEisen and I’s last call for @WNURSports. Catch some Rutgers vs. Northwestern baseball with us NOW at wnur-sports.mixlr.com!

Swing-and-miss has been an issue, like it was with Judge. It's hard to see it improving against MLB arms who know how to locate. I think Jones, like Judge, will struggle in his cup of coffee. But if he can make swing adjustments like Judge did, he'll be valuable long-term. (3/3)

I don't think his walk rate will translate to MLB immediately since he's going to get attacked in a Yankees lineup where pretty much everyone is hitting well right now. The real test will come after he belts a couple of homers and stops getting pitches to hit. (2/3)

Some thoughts on Spencer Jones: He has prodigious power which has translated against upper minors pitching, which is good. The swing is kind of long but it's designed to lift the ball, which I like better than sending 100 MPH rockets straight into the dirt. (1/3)

Why is Joc Pederson playing the outfield in 2026

Great afternoon for some delightful action on the diamond! Tune in at 3:30 for myself and @lnyc194 for a late season non-conference battle! wnur-sports.mixlr.com

What better way is there to spend your Tuesday afternoon than listening to some ‘Cats baseball? Tune into @SegallEthan and I’s call on @WNURSports below:

If Brian Cashman was serious in that Athletic article about Boone having 100% control of the lineup, then it’s 100% Boone’s fault that Ben Rice is routinely being benched against lefties. It’s time for someone to force Boone’s hand; Rice needs to be in there every day.

Weird way for the Yankees to handle their first Rule 5 pick since 2007. They took him, he was meh in Spring, and was on the roster for two weeks without being used and then cut and sent back. Not like it’s detrimental to the team, but I feel bad that Winquest got jerked around.

Yankees season doesn’t truly start until they get no-hit through six innings on a random Thursday afternoon in April

It's 51 and partly sunny here in Evanston, perfect weather for some Big Ten ball. Tune in here at 3 CT: wnur-sports.mixlr.com

@NateRoper_ Thanks for checking it out! Yeah, I account for location along with game state, because otherwise it would be way too simple. And because there is so much more than just location that I take into account in training, I don't necessarily see the model as a measure of command.

Great read, I have a few questions: is location accounted for at all? It seems like it’s just change in run value by situation/game state (if I read it correctly). The boosted tree models are usually accurate as you showed for predicting performance, but it shouldn’t necessarily be used to measure command, right?

Execution+ is back for the 2026 season! Click the link to generate summary graphics for any MLB or AAA pitcher throughout the season: leo-tesler-baseball.shinyapps.io/executionplus/ In the meantime, here are some highlights from the guys we've seen so far.

@NateRoper_ It's calculated using machine learning models trained on pitch-level data from last season. Here's a report I wrote on my process from a few years ago: drive.google.com/file/d/1qFFa5u…

@lnyc194 How is Execution+ calculated?

Out of singular pitches thrown 10 or more times, Emerson Hancock's sinker takes the cake. It wasn't the primary offering from the young right-hander, but it'll be interesting to see how its usage evolves throughout 2026.

Out of all pitchers who have thrown over 60 pitches, the very highest Execution+ belongs to Cam Schlittler. He dominated the Giants in an eventual Yankees shutout victory, while barely throwing any breaking stuff.

I think I will set a record for fastest to ever click a subscribe button when the @baseballisdead_ Patreon is released

Washington #Nationals 66-96, 5th in NL East MVP: James Wood Best addition: Foster Griffin Player to watch: Daylen Lile

Toronto #BlueJays 93-69, 1st in AL East MVP: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Best addition: Dylan Cease Player to watch: Cody Ponce

2026 MLB Season Predictions, a 🧵: Once again, I’ve spent my winter deep in the spreadsheets, using my own models and public data/projections to look ahead at the coming season. Here’s a quick breakdown of each team’s predicted record and a few players to watch: