Maximilian Friedrich

Introducing Autopilot @WSummerlinAI and I have spent the last several years together researching and investing in fintech and artificial intelligence across the public and private markets. We have witnessed extraordinary founders build category-defining companies - Block (Square), Zoom, Replit, MosaicML, UiPath, and many more. Today, we are excited to announce our new venture capital firm, Autopilot. Our mission is to back and support the next generation of extraordinary founders, bringing to bear our capital, experience, and relationships. We continue to focus on the areas we know best: artificial intelligence and fintech, and invest as early as we have conviction that a startup is emerging as a category leader, usually at the early-growth stage. As we look at the opportunity set on the horizon, it's clear that we are at a unique moment in the arc of technology. AI coding assistants have already more than doubled the productivity of software engineers, while generative models can create graphic designs 1,800 times cheaper and 100 times faster than professional human designers. Many of the markets that we are the most excited about do not exist yet and, therefore, have no competition, or currently belong to stale incumbents. We believe the next Standard Oil, Amazon, or Facebook will be a company that uses AI to create or transform a large, growing industry. We are partnering with the founders who lead the way. If you're leveraging AI to create or disrupt a large industry, we'd love to learn more about your story. Our inboxes are always open: max@apv.vc and will@apv.vc Follow us at @hqautopilot on X or on our website, apv.vc

On this week’s episode of the Autopilot podcast, we speak with @lqiao, co-founder and CEO of @FireworksAI_HQ. Fireworks helps companies deploy the best AI models at the fastest speeds. It has raised $25 million from @sequoia, @benchmark, @databricks & others. Links the comments.

AI is mostly talked about in the context of B2B software and co-pilots for knowledge workers. But like any technology, it will have a profound impact on humans on a social level. How will it change interpersonal relationships? @WSummerlinAI sat down with @MaggieSin to discuss!

AI will solve this

There is a lot of activity in the AI legal space. Check out @WSummerlinAI's conversation with Jordan Domash about how Responsiv reduces outside counsel spend and helps in-house legal teams be more productive - and why using ChatGPT or Perplexity isn't an option.

How much will AI companies collectively be worth in 2035? Here is a very simple way to think about it: Human knowledge workers are paid $32 trillion annually. AI can automate a significant % of knowledge work. The value of automation is clear - AI will be 10x-100x better and faster than humans at most specialized cognitive tasks - designing circuit boards, writing software code, etc. Depending on the market/pricing power/labor dynamics, it will likely be a lot cheaper as well. I think it’s reasonable to assume that by 2035, AI companies will generate $3+ trillion in revenue by automating knowledge work. For context, companies currently spend ~$1 trillion annually on enterprise software and ~$5 trillion on IT overall. A strong argument exists for more aggressive revenue assumptions, especially if automation leads to significant economic growth. Assuming $3 trillion in collective revenue at ~60% gross margin, there is probably $20-$30 trillion in net new enterprise value up for grabs.

@pitdesi Def felt that

Yes, New Yorkers that was an earthquake

The dark art of tool and die making.... Check out @WSummerlinAI and Aaron Slodov's (@aphysicist) conversation below.

@lucasbagnocvaz @RavelinCap Amazing 🔥 Congratulations!

INTRODUCING RAVELIN I’m excited to finally talk about what I’ve been up to. Ravelin (@ravelincap) is an early-stage venture firm backing exceptional founders building Critical Software. Here is who we are, what we do, and what we believe in: ravelincap.com/introducing-ra…

@nathanbenaich @modern_ai @theinformation Wow!

Cool to see @modern_ai featured on @theinformation’s top 50 companies list 😎

Global conflicts are escalating on multiple fronts as evil rears its ugly head. As the global military superpower, we (America) will be involved in one way or another. Importantly, our allies will depend on us for military supplies. We aren’t prepared. Our stockpiles are dwindling, and we are overly dependent on a complex global supply chain that will almost certainly be disrupted by global conflict. It seems like a good time to start aggressively investing in US manufacturing. We have done it before, and we can do it again. America won WWII in large part due to our superior industrial capacity. Before 1940, the US aviation industry had produced a total of 3,000 aircraft. Incredibly, by 1945, that figure jumped to 300,000 aircraft. Our grandparents and great-grandparents did the impossible with slide rules, well-worn hands, and sheer force of will. No computers, AI, or any of the modern tools we have. Imagine what they could have accomplished with modern technology. When pushed, the collective American spirit is an unstoppable force. It’s time to awaken that spirit.

Many AI startups are trying to automate work currently done by human workers - making common, existing workflows 10x faster/cheaper. Fewer are leveraging AI to do tasks that humans can’t do well. Things get interesting when AI can do a task >100x better than the top expert humans.

Although ARK is about to celebrate its 10th birthday, I know this is just the beginning for ARK, and I look forward to following the team from the sidelines and staying involved in ARK's research ecosystem. As for what comes next - stay tuned! (2/2)

It's bittersweet to announce that today is my last day at @ARKInvest after five amazing years of learning, investing and building. Thank you to the entire ARK team and especially @CathieDWood and @wintonARK for their trust and guidance. (1/2)

Congrats to @NaveenGRao, @barrydauber, and the entire @MosaicML team! Great move by @databricks. wsj.com/articles/datab…

The plow increased the productivity of farmers by 5-6x. That productivity uplift enabled significant portions of the population to shift from food gathering (the primary “job” at the time) to producing specialized goods and services. It set the stage for significant economic growth. Much of knowledge work in its current form (writing code, reviewing contracts, etc.) is the modern equivalent of churning dirt with a stick. AI will make knowledge workers 5x+ as productive, give rise to new forms of work, and set the stage for a period of significant economic growth. History doesn’t repeat, but it does rhyme. Humans are exceptionally good at adapting to new technologies and economic opportunities.

🎯 Great for Braintree, but bad for PayPal’s gross profit (what matters in payments) Unbranded volume increased from 19% in 2018 to 30% in 2022, while branded declined from 36% to 30% Problem: The declining branded volume accounts for ~70% of PayPal’s gross profit

Toast continues to be a beast

The cost to build LLM applications just got a lot cheaper, thanks to @MosaicML's open-source MPT models and new inference service. You can now replace public foundation models (i.e., GPT-3) with a private alternative hosted on your own infrastructure and save up to 15x on inference costs. Plus, with MPT-7B, 64k+ context length!

🎉 Ansa is out of stealth! Excited for @thefintechfund to work with @sophgoldb and JT Cho to make cheaper payments a reality @cheaperpayments. techcrunch.com/2023/04/26/fou…