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Phillyd1207
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Phillyd1207 retweetledi
We know that the Treasury has been suppressing cash settled oil futures on behalf of the administration.
But think when we finally audit this corrupt administration we’ll also find they were bolstering the S&P 500 futures as well.
During the past two weeks, we’ve had aggressive nightly TWAP buying during closed market hours, repeatedly shifting prices up 0.2% plus, reversing every sell off and obeying every EMA line.
Remarkably odd behavior, and it always perfect front runs the next Barak Ravid headline, and leads with futures with spot chasing.
The administration has risked billions in tax payer money to fraudulently paint the tape, in violation of its own CFTC regulations.
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Sec. Bessent response to UAE after UAE threatened to price oil and gas in CNY if US would not supply USD swap lines a few days ago (bottom):
"Yes - we will give you whatever swap lines you want 'to prevent the disorderly sale of US assets'."
Luke Gromen@LukeGromen
UAE to Trump Administration: "You started this war; if we run short of USDs as a result of it, either you will give us USD swap lines, or we will be forced to start transacting oil and gas in CNY and other currencies." -WSJ, just now Via @ces921
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So if he posted an image of himself multiplying five loaves of bread and two fish into a feast for thousands, would he claim it was a depiction of himself as a caterer?
Acyn@Acyn
Reporter: Did you post that picture of yourself depicted as Jesus Christ? Trump: It wasn't a depiction. I did post it and I thought it was me as a doctor. And had to do with red cross as a red cross worker, which we support and only the fake news could come up with that one.
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Phillyd1207 retweetledi
The U.S. Faces a Strategic Deadlock with Iran
The failure of the recent talks in #Islamabadtalks drives from the fact that Iran did not arrive at the negotiating table weakened or desperate. On the contrary, Tehran came with a sense of resilience, and even advantage and behaved accordingly.
For weeks, the U.S. policy appears to have been guided by the assumption that sustained kinetic pressure had eroded Iran’s position enough to force meaningful concessions, particularly on uranium enrichment and freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
But negotiations are not shaped by objective reality alone, they are driven by perception. And Iran’s perception is fundamentally different.
From Tehran’s perspective, it has withstood pressure, absorbed blows, and demonstrated its capacity to retaliate across multiple arenas. That is not the mindset of a regime preparing to compromise.
This gap between American expectations and Iranian self-perception now lies at the heart of a growing strategic deadlock.
The options facing Washington are all "problematic":
A. Renewed negotiations may simply reproduce the same dynamics, with Iran unwilling to concede and the U.S. unwilling to settle for less.
B. Ending the confrontation without an agreement risks signaling weakness and undermining deterrence. Escalation, meanwhile, carries the most significant risks of all.
C. A return to high-intensity conflict is unlikely to produce decisive results. While strikes on Iranian infrastructure, or even more ambitious military moves, could impose real costs on the regime, they would almost certainly trigger a broader response. Iran has both the capability and the willingness to expand the conflict horizontally, targeting U.S. interests, Israel, and regional partners. The result would not be a quick resolution, but a wider war with direct implications for global energy markets and economic stability.
In other words, military escalation may satisfy the desire to reassert leverage, but it is unlikely to deliver a strategic breakthrough.
This leaves Washington with a difficult but unavoidable conclusion: the burden of recalibrating strategy rests primarily on the United States.
That does not mean conceding to Iranian demands. But it does require a more sober assessment of what pressure alone can achieve, and a clearer understanding of the risks embedded in escalation.
The alternative is to continue operating under an illusion of leverage, one that recent events have already begun to expose.
Complicating matters further are the mounting political and strategic constraints facing Washington. With a high-stakes meeting between President Trump and China’s Xi Jinping on the horizon, a global spotlight event like the Soccer World Cup approaching, and midterm elections looming, the U.S. has limited appetite, and even less time, for a prolonged military campaign.
Large-scale options such as a ground invasion would require months to execute and sustain, with no guarantee of decisive results. Even extensive strikes on Iranian infrastructure, while painful, are unlikely to deliver a knockout blow. Instead, they risk entrenching the conflict and inviting retaliation across multiple fronts.
Taken together, these constraints underscore a deeper reality: the United States is not just facing a tactical dilemma, but a strategic entanglement, one in which its military options are costly, its diplomatic leverage is limited, and time is increasingly working against it.
Meanwhile, Iran remains defiant. The regime shows no indication that it is prepared to yield, certainly not under pressure, and not at this stage.
Strategy deadlock.
#IranWar
Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش@citrinowicz
I hope those advising the U.S. President are making the following points clear: 1. Iran sees itself as having achieved a significant strategic gain. From its perspective, if its terms are not met, there will be no meeting in Islamabad, even at the cost of renewed escalation. 2. Iran is unlikely to reopen the straits without a full ceasefire, which it believes was promised, even under pressure or threats. 3. Tehran has no intention of offering new concessions beyond what has already been discussed with the U.S. It views itself as negotiating from a position of strength, so why concede more? 4. The “Axis of Resistance” operates as an interconnected system. As long as fighting continues in Lebanon, Shiite militias in Iraq and potentially the Houthis, are likely to remain engaged. Iran does not see itself as having been defeated. It did not seek these negotiations, and it is unrealistic to expect concessions at the table if, in its own assessment, it has not conceded on the battlefield.
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Phillyd1207 retweetledi
The escalation now appears increasingly unavoidable, especially as President Trump significantly raises the stakes.
Iran is unlikely to back down. It will likely test U.S. resolve by targeting American naval assets, while also attempting to disrupt commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz or deter tankers from transiting altogether.
Such developments would almost certainly trigger a sharp spike in global oil prices, with cascading second and third order effects particularly across Asian economies that rely heavily on Gulf energy flows. At the same time, Iran will aim to project resilience and avoid appearing to capitulate under pressure.
Further escalation would increase the likelihood of Houthi action in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, potentially threatening another critical maritime chokepoint. It would also raise the risk of Iranian strikes against infrastructure designed to bypass Hormuz, including pipelines such as the East-West corridor.
While Iran would sustain significant damage, it will attempt to maintain oil exports through alternative routes like the Jask terminal, calculating that Gulf states may ultimately suffer greater economic harm.
In any case, this is not a scenario with a clear winner, only varying degrees of loss.
#iran
Barak Ravid@BarakRavid
🚨After the collapse of the negotiations, President Trump announces a naval blockade on Iran
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Phillyd1207 retweetledi
Phillyd1207 retweetledi
Oh man something big is about to drop
Acyn@Acyn
Melania Trump: The lies linking me with Jeffrey Epstein need to end today. I've never been friends with Epstein. I never had a relationship with Epstein or his accomplice, Maxwell. My email reply to Maxwell cannot be categorized as anything more than casual correspondence.
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Guess the new Ayatollah not fuking around on day 40
Middle East Observer@ME_Observer_
⚡️ 🚫Explosions are heard in some areas of Basra, Iraq ⚡️ 🚫 Explosions heard in Dubai and Kuwait
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Phillyd1207 retweetledi
The 2026 vibe in an Easter egg shell.
OSINTtechnical@Osinttechnical
President Trump, from the South Portico of the White House, with the Easter Bunny, addresses Iran:
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There appears to be an event happening at Jubail - the bulk of these fires are not normal
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@luxeprogressive you could probably make that point without dragging israel in but you do you
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This is such a disgusting way to talk about human beings. An entire country. It’s the Israel model of complete civilizational destruction. Sickening and indefensible.
Acyn@Acyn
Trump: We are going to hit them extremely hard over the next 2 to 3 weeks. We're going to bring them back to the stone ages where they belong.
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RT @hkuppy: The half-life of a Trump TACO is approaching that of a ceviche TACO in the Cancun sun…🤮🤮🤮
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