MaPo

65 posts

MaPo

MaPo

@ponlineMP

Katılım Temmuz 2015
118 Takip Edilen36 Takipçiler
MaPo
MaPo@ponlineMP·
@alex_avoigt Most important statement was ",,, our products, supply chain readiness and allocation decisions between sale to customers or use for our owned and operated fleet."
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Alex
Alex@alex_avoigt·
The most important statement by far in Tesla's Q1 quarterly earnings call was that the company sells now autonomous driving and that the vehicles serve just to deliver the system, which means that Tesla is now an physical AI company. This simple but crucial fact hasn't yet sunk in the heads of all who listened but its a game changer. Tesla is the largest and most competitive physical AI company in the world and believe me the winner takes it all. $tsla
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James Stephenson
James Stephenson@ICannot_Enough·
@garyblack00 @farzyness Before “exiting your $TSLA position” (completely) at $358 in May you had already sold almost all of it below $177.
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Gary Black
Gary Black@garyblack00·
Everyone scoffed when I suggested a few years ago that others would solve for unsupervised autonomy around the same time as TSLA, but with five competitors already completing 750K paid unsupervised autonomous ride-hailing trips per week and a half-dozen OEMs likely to launch L4 autonomous driving options as part of their own EV offerings using $NVDA chips and software stack in 2026, investors are starting to understand that unsupervised autonomy is about to become table stakes for every automobile manufacturer and $TSLA will not be the only one who solves for it. With $UBER (+9.6% this week) likely to begin offering a self-driving option on its app at a reduced price as soon as regulators pass autonomous driving standards, we can expect unsupervised autonomy to be democratized quickly via ride-hailing platforms over the next couple years.
Gary Black tweet media
Sawyer Merritt@SawyerMerritt

NEWS: Lucid today unveiled its production-intent robotaxi vehicle, developed in partnership with Group, Nuro and Uber, that will power its global robotaxi service. They also debuted today the Uber-designed in-cabin rider experience: • Sensor array featuring high-resolution cameras, solid-state lidar sensors, and radars. • Halo-mounted integrated LEDs to help riders easily identify the correct vehicle, display rider initials, and provide clear status updates from pickup through dropoff. • In-vehicle visualization that shows what the robotaxi sees and its planned path in real-time, including maneuvers such as yielding to pedestrians, slowing at traffic lights, changing lanes, and dropping off a passenger. • Interactive screens that let riders personalize their autonomous journey — from heated-seat and climate controls to music, as well as options to contact support, or request the vehicle to pull-over. • Fit up to six passengers • Compute based on NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Thor, part of the NVIDIA DRIVE Hyperion platform Pending final validation, the production intent robotaxi is expected to start production at Lucid’s Arizona factory later this year.

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MaPo
MaPo@ponlineMP·
@alex_avoigt At the same time, the needs of the welfare state and public acceptance must be taken into account.
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MaPo
MaPo@ponlineMP·
@alex_avoigt The taxation of AI and robotics has to be very carefully timed, because otherwise the development of the affected companies – and thus their competitiveness compared to countries that act differently – will be severely hampered.
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Gary Black
Gary Black@garyblack00·
I love the $TSLA story: Most profitable EV business model on the planet, generalized unsupervised autonomy about to scale, Optimus robot manufacturing starting in 2026, fully-engaged @elonmusk. But I dislike the valuation: 2026 P/E 220x vs long-term forward EPS growth of +35% (6x PEG) and continued falling earnings ests (-11% in last 3 months, -47% over past year). Critics tell me to ignore the financials and just focus on the tech, but that mindset will get you in trouble every time. The next major catalyst is an announcement by $TSLA that the safety monitors are coming out of some or all the Austin cars, which signifies the technology is ready, and $TSLA robotaxis will hereafter drive unsupervised and autonomously. @elonmusk has promised this by year-end, which is likely why TSLA stock keeps going higher.
Gary Black tweet mediaGary Black tweet media
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Gary Black
Gary Black@garyblack00·
@Teslaconomics lol… Investing is a marathon, not a sprint. Let’s check back at the end of 4Q.
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Gary Black
Gary Black@garyblack00·
I expect $TSLA stock to remain strong through the end of 3Q (9/30), as analysts scramble to raise 3Q delivery estimates (my est 470K vs consensus 432K). This should reverse in 4Q as hedge funds unwind their bullish bets geared to a 3Q delivery beat. The bigger catalyst remains removal of robotaxi safety monitors at year-end, which if successful, would allow TSLA robotaxi to expand from 150 cars now in Austin/SFO to potentially thousands as TSLA scales up its autonomous ride hailing business. At even a 5,000 vehicle robotaxi fleet I anticipate little 2026 TSLA incremental earnings impact ($.08-$.10/share) at the $1 base fee plus $1 - $2.50/mile promo price. I don’t view the new more affordable (~$35K) TSLA model to be introduced in 4Q as a catalyst. Unless it turns out to be a new form factor sufficiently differentiated from Model Y to generate incremental volume net of cannibalization, it is likely to be a repeat of 2023-2024 when TSLA cut prices and costs and TSLA earnings ests plunged by 50%. In the long run earnings certainly matter, but for TSLA investors today further earnings cuts don’t seem to be impacting the stock price.
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MaPo
MaPo@ponlineMP·
@Tslachan What kind of journalism is this?
MaPo tweet media
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Tsla Chan
Tsla Chan@Tslachan·
$TSLA Tesla has received orders for just over 600 cars since launching sales in India in mid-July, a number that has fallen short of the company's own expectations, Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter. finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-get…
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Gary Black
Gary Black@garyblack00·
One of the biggest mistakes retail investors make is doing a ton of research on understanding product (#3), but almost no research on valuation (#11). Even those with huge followings on $TSLA (e.g., @herbertong @farzyness) spend little time discussing value vs price. TSLA upside/downside vs all other names in our universe is very different at $350 vs $200. We exited TSLA at $358 in May because of valuation, not because we didn’t believe in the product.
Gary Black@garyblack00

Some basic lessons for new investors to live by: 1/ Ignore the crowd. You make money by going against the consensus. 2/ Always pick stocks where you feel you have a research edge. 3/ You rarely go wrong investing in the company with the best product. 4/ Don’t listen to management. They are paid to be bullish. 5/ Study competitors, suppliers, and customer behavior. Be a product junkie. 6/ Have in your mind what you think a stock is worth, which is different from price. 7/ Be able to articulate in one sentence why you own a stock. 8/ Develop specific downside scenarios that would cause you to sell the stock. 9/ The highest quality of growth is unit growth, then pricing, then margin expansion, then cash reinvestment. 10/ Be wary of companies that grow by buying other companies. 11/ Sell discipline is selling a stock once it hits your price target, or your investment thesis (why you bought it) changes. 12/ Short stocks that have bad businesses, and not because they trade at high P/Es. 13/ Two big value creators are brand extension and TAM expansion stories. 14/ High P/Es are a function of high future growth rates, and not the industry. 15/ When investing in growth stocks always look for a controversy (“fight”). 16/ Buy stocks that can leverage key secular megatrends, and avoid those that will be hurt by them. 17/ Always consider cannibalization of existing products when sizing up new product opportunities. 18/ Be wary of “hockey stick” sales forecasts absent new products or expansion to new distribution channels. 19/ Stock buybacks are accretive if the E/P ratio exceeds the after tax cost of debt or return on cash. 20/ Price cuts rarely add value since competitors usually match them.

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Gary Black
Gary Black@garyblack00·
One, I agree 100% with TSLA’s posture of being paranoid as hell about safety, since any incident would set TSLA’s autonomous efforts back months if not years. Two, remember we sold the remainder of our $TSLA position at $358 on valuation concerns, and not because we didn’t believe. Our view for YEARS - which looks increasingly accurate - is that TSLA would achieve generalized unsupervised autonomy, but so would others.
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Gary Black
Gary Black@garyblack00·
Oy ve. The $TSLA robotaxi fleet will initially be a small fleet of 10-20 Model Y SUVs, operating in a geo-fenced area. The teleoperators will act as safety backup, and take over in emergency and highly complex situations. From Grok: The role of the teleoperator in Tesla’s new robotaxi service will be to remotely monitor and assist the autonomous vehicles to ensure safety and handle edge cases. Teleoperators do not actively drive the vehicles but are expected to intervene and take control of the vehicle when the AI encounters complex situations, such as navigating construction zones, crowded pedestrian areas, or unexpected road closures. They provide guidance or take temporary control to resolve issues, often using low-latency data streaming and, in some cases, VR rigs for immersive interaction. Their interventions also generate valuable data to improve Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) software. Teleoperation has limitations, including potential signal latency and connection losses, which experts note could pose risks as the fleet scales. I’m no $TSLA bear. We’ve never shorted TSLA stock. We just try to keep it real. My fellow $TSLA realist @TSLAFanMtl put it best yesterday: “We go from "Unsupervised FSD Robotaxi your car will make you thousands of dollars per year no matter where you live...every year for 8 years..." to "we are launching with 10 cars in one place and a bro will be in the front seat with access to a big STOP button."
Whole Mars Catalog@wholemars

You cannot remotely control a Robotaxi. Everything has to be handled by the AI on the car. Funny to see all the Tesla bears in denial of what is happening.

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MaPo
MaPo@ponlineMP·
@CapitalKing4 @alex_avoigt No, it is not... You have to copy the simplicity of nature, not the complexity. Or worse, make it even more complicated.
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Capital King
Capital King@CapitalKing4·
@alex_avoigt That is like arguing that because birds have flapping wings and exist in nature, we should build planes with flapping wings to fly and not use jet engines because birds don't have them
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Alex
Alex@alex_avoigt·
Humans drive with the help of their neural network and two camera-like sensors, while a Tesla drives with the help of a neural network and many cameras, but they still don't understand why it works. 😂 Not understanding something creates fear, and fear is a powerful emotion that often determines a person's behaviour and statements, because fear triggers one of the oldest parts of our brain, which knows only two modi operandi: fight or run. Later, it will go down in history as a joke that companies assumed that lidar sensors, a technology that does not exist anywhere in nature, were necessary to drive safely on a road.
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Pejjy
Pejjy@CuriousPejjy·
This will forever haunt him 😂 $TSLA
Pejjy tweet media
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MaPo
MaPo@ponlineMP·
@TroyTeslike First comment comes from Stanphyl Capital. Which shows the quality of your analysis... 🥱
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Alex
Alex@alex_avoigt·
The information the AfD provides to the public may not sound extreme at first glance but if you look at data, facts, and their actions you realize they are a radical right-wing party. I try to give you the short answer as to why and this are not opinions but supported by data and facts: 1. the AfD wants to stop production in 🇩🇪 Giga Berlin and is against Tesla and SpaceX 2. the AfD is largely controlled by right-wing extremists 3. the AfD stands for racist policies 4. the AfD deliberately spreads hatred and disinformation 5. the AfD is against free speech, attacks the press and diversity of opinion 6. parts of the AfD do not shy away from violence 7. the AfD propagates a völkisch Nazi-like image of women 8. the AfD makes policy for the rich 9. the AfD jeopardizes our prosperity through isolationism 10. anti-science: the AfD wants to abolish climate protection 11. the AfD is evidently partly financed by Russia and therefore corrupt 12. the AfD is anti-democratic in its basic principles and wants to abolish democratic Germany I could go on but that should help to answer your question.
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Naomi Seibt
Naomi Seibt@NaomiSeibt·
My name is Naomi Seibt, I am from Germany, and I voted for the #AfD. For Sovereignty, Safety and Freedom. 💙🇩🇪
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MaPo
MaPo@ponlineMP·
@Markus_Soeder Das wäre ein großer Rückschritt. Wer meint, im Jahr 2024 auf diese Weise im internationalen Wettbewerb bestehen zu können, wird böse auf diese Nase fallen. Das wird viele tausend Arbeitsplätze kosten.
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Markus Söder
Markus Söder@Markus_Soeder·
Die Autoindustrie ist eine unserer wichtigsten Branchen und der größte Arbeitgeber. Europa hat ein Verbrennerverbot beschlossen und in Deutschland wird die Förderung für Elektromobilität gekürzt. Das ist ein großer Fehler. Wir werden beides rückgängig machen. Mit guten Verbrennern haben wir beste Chancen für den Klimaschutz. #csupt24
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MaPo
MaPo@ponlineMP·
@alex_avoigt Not sustainable for BMW, because they cannot compete.
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Alex
Alex@alex_avoigt·
Frank Weber, Head of BMW R&D in an interview a few days ago, "In the case of Tesla and the Chinese, we see the prices of the electric cars they are selling and we understand that these are not sustainable practices. We have not entered into this price war and we will not." Facts: BMW iX3 discount last year was -15% and this year -26%. In fact, Tesla's price reductions in 🇩🇪 Germany are way lower (Model 3 -9% and -6%) than all other automakers. Why is it that many legacy automaker executives are notorious liars and why would anybody buy a car from a person that lies to you?
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Dietmar Oeliger 🐓
Dietmar Oeliger 🐓@DOeliger·
„Schwerlastverkehr kann natürlich nicht elektrifiziert werden“ - es ist nur schwer zu ertragen, wie schlecht informiert unsere Bildungsministerin ist. Zur Info liebe Frau @starkwatzinger: Alle großen LKW-Hersteller planen 50% Elektrifizierung bis 2030.
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MaPo
MaPo@ponlineMP·
@HolzheuStefan @christianduerr 1:1 mit dem Heizstab wäre (mal rein hypothetisch betrachtet) immer noch deutlich besser als die doppelte Menge an Strom für eine H2 Ready Heizung.
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Stefan Holzheu
Stefan Holzheu@HolzheuStefan·
Lieber Herr @christianduerr, das ist Schachsinn³ Selbst wenn der Heizstab anspringt arbeitet die Wärmepumpe weiter. 1:1 ist ausgeschlossen. Bei unserer Luft-Wasser-WP Mit Heizkörpern war in drei Jahren Betrieb der Heizstab übrigens noch nie an.
wenig Worte@wenig_worte

#Dürr versucht bei #Lanz ernsthaft zu erklären, dass Wärmepumpen nicht Umgebungswärme nutzen, sondern 1 zu 1 direkt nur mit Strom heizen und stellt damit die Sinnhaftigkeit von WP komplett in Frage. Soweit ging bis jetzt noch kein Gaslobbyist, auch nicht in der FDP.

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