Chris Papadopoullos

From Andrew Bailey's interview with Lionel barber. I'm not sure Bailey knows what 'groupthink' means...

It's not team transitory vs team permanent any more on #inflation , it's wage-price cyclists vs money supply watchers

@ojblanchard1 Central banks in practice prefer to use 'the counterparts approach' to understand broad money changes rather than the multiplier. The competing approaches explained here: omfif.org/2020/06/us-unp… Chart from ECB:

As I revise my macro textbook, I am eager to get input on the following: In an environment of large remunerated bank reserves, and generous liquidity provision by central banks, how should one think about the money multiplier? That it has become irrelevant, or not quite?

As significant as the Inflation Reduction Act but discussed hardly as much. EU's carbon border tax and updated emissions trading system takes another step forward. euronews.com/my-europe/2023…

Interesting Tenreyro speech. Key message is that central bankers and academics are still allergic to any mention of broad money/money supply despite increased attention from investment commentary and financial press bankofengland.co.uk/speech/2023/ap…

In case you're wondering why your flat white has been getting worse, it's because arabica beans nearly doubled in price and are being replaced/cut with cheapo robusta. Some hope in recent price falls.

Why would anyone want to leave Canary Wharf? It's got security, the Liz line, is shaking off its soulless business district vibe, and even has a Greggs. cityam.com/city-calls-cli…

Potentially better mon pol approach: pick a yield curve you like, set a corridor around it, offer to always buy at the ceiling and sell at the floor. Lift/steepen curve to tighten policy, steepen if market converts too much long debt to short. Merge central banks & debt managers

Speak of the devil

Enjoyed this brief, level-headed note. LDI: The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated russellinvestments.com/uk/blog/ldi-pe…

Monetary aggregates fell out of fashion during the 1990s due to a loss of usefulness and associations with the free market politics of monetarism, but have proved a reliable indicator of demand and inflation over the 2010s, more so than the labour market omfif.org/2020/06/us-unp…

The Bank of England has sneakily got back its pre-1997 powers - financial supervision and now debt management - but managed to keep its independence. Too much power for an independent institution? capx.co/time-the-bloat…

In 2020 I asked Sir Robert Stheeman, who manages the UK's national debt, whether the UK's macro framework could handle an environment like the current one. Here's what he said: omfif.org/2020/08/uk-dmo… via @OMFIF

Obviously the fiscal mishap is important, but the Bank of England's abrupt ending of unofficial yield curve control was always going to cause problems in the gilt market

I think I recall Gertjan Vlieghe saying in a BoE Q&A that high public & private debt => rates wouldn't need to rise as much in tightening cycle. Shame he left.

@Gilesyb Related point - the BoE has got back the powers it lost in 1997: fin supervision and debt management, but managed to keep its independence. Sneaky.

"The Bank’s independence from the government is much more secure than the government’s independence from the Bank" - on.ft.com/3rLxOUL My first piece for the FT, 12 years ago. Back then, I felt the Bank forcing Government to rein it in a bad thing....

"bond markets are set for trouble" - 16th September, a week before the maxi budget, on problems with the UK's macro framework capx.co/time-the-bloat… via @CapX

The Bank of England doesn't appear to have done many speeches/papers on the financial stability impact of a rapid rise in long-term yields. Seems like an obvious thing to have done.

But financial stability...