PMody 📐🚀

@SpacedExplained How is that not a CGI?

🚨: The black hole Gargantua in Interstellar wasn’t CGI. It was rendered from Einstein’s equations on an IBM supercomputer.

It seems unfair to compare market cap for a rapidly growing company based on a number that's six months old. I'd think that it's reasonable to see recent numbers for last month or to (May or June) and calculate multiples based on that. It's not the treditional approach but it makes sense as it provides more accurate multiples for a company that's on the onset of an S curve.

$1.75 trillion. $15 billion in revenue. 116x. That’s the SpaceX IPO ask, and the breakdown gets more interesting from there. For context, Tesla at peak mania traded around 30x revenue. Saudi Aramco IPO’d at 18x. This would be the richest large-cap pricing in stock market history. The number that actually justifies it is Starlink. $10.4 billion of that $15 billion came from satellite internet. 69% of total revenue from a subscription business that doubled subscribers three years in a row: 2.3 million to 4.6 million to 9.2 million, with Payload Space projecting 18.4 million by year-end 2026. At $70 average revenue per user globally, 18 million subscribers generates roughly $15 billion in annual recurring revenue from Starlink alone. This tells you what the IPO is really selling. An orbital telecom monopoly, bundled with a government contractor holding $22 billion in federal contracts, bundled with an AI company (xAI) that got approved to run Grok inside classified Pentagon systems four days ago. The xAI acquisition in February valued the combined entity at $1.25 trillion. The IPO targets $1.75 trillion. That’s a $500 billion markup in a single month. The stated justification: “orbital data centers with AI” and a moon base. Musk is selling three narratives simultaneously: Starlink as the AWS of space connectivity, SpaceX as the sole launch provider for Golden Dome missile defense ($175 billion program, with SpaceX already positioned for a $2 billion satellite constellation contract), and xAI/Grok as the Pentagon’s preferred AI model because it agreed to “all lawful purposes” with zero restrictions. The government revenue concentration is worth noting. SpaceX holds $22 billion in federal contracts. Defense contracts doubled from $856 million in 2023 to $1.8 billion in 2024. Total government funding over two decades: $38 billion, with $6.3 billion in 2024 alone. Musk’s DOGE role canceled 10,000+ federal contracts across agencies, none touching SpaceX, which raises governance questions that public market investors will eventually have to price in. This IPO is expected to raise $50 billion, shattering Saudi Aramco’s $29 billion record. Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley are all on the deal. Polymarket traders are pricing a 40%+ chance the IPO closes above $2 trillion. The real question here: a company generating $8 billion in profit priced at 219x earnings, while simultaneously serving as rocket provider, internet provider, AI provider, and defense contractor for a government where the CEO just finished running the cost-cutting agency. Every institutional investor on Earth will want a piece of this IPO. Whether the math works at 116x revenue depends entirely on whether Starlink’s doubling streak holds.

@aaronburnett My understanding is that V4 is supposed to be taller for larger payloads in hopes that v4 raptors would have higher thrust. This is in addition to having full reusability with V3 starship. Is that not right?

Full reusability on V3 would indicate it is the version SpaceX will choose to scale meaning <$100/kg costs may be achieved sooner than later. Reusability + Manufacturing is the one-two punch.

Considering that the xAI valuation was 250B at the time of acquisition, it'd not turn participants stock into 3 even assuming xAI component of SpaceX grows three folds by the time of IPO (very less likely). It'd mean that the xAI holder stocks would go up about 33% or so if SpaceX valuation goes up 33% from the xAI acquisition to the IPO. I agree on folks retiring after having some amount of wealth and after achieving a specific target or at a good stopping point.

BILLIONAIRES DECIDE TO RETIRE XAI now has $250 billion valuation. But when the Spacex IPO happens XAI part will go to $750 billion. Tony will be able to sell after a 6-12 month lockup. Typical co-founder equity in AI startups with multiple founders and heavy dilution from funding rounds is 0.5-2% per founder. In 12 months or so , If Tony owns 0.5% of xAI he will have $3.75 billion of SpaceX. If Tony owns 1% of xAI the $7.5 billion of SpaceX. SpaceX will have a Space monopoly with about 30% of all global communications.

this isn't looking good

@aaronburnett Compute will only generate revenue if not used internally and when offered as service.

This is correct, Mars acted as capital sink in our original model exchanging cash for enterprise value in terms of Optimus productivity. Now biggest cash flywheel after Starlink is orbital compute first from earth but ultimately from moon. Though, I would expect all of these moon businesses to pale in comparison to compute.

@chipmonkey75 Don't worry. AI will help you soon.

I don't know what to do with this, but I'm very proud of my collection of #bookmarks. There were undeniably some prior to 2013, but my organizational system had not caught up. Someday maybe I shall find them.

@elonmusk Tesla made it to the magic number.

@elonmusk @Tesla Roadster...

Just left the @Tesla design studio. Most epic demo ever by end of year. Ever.

@elonmusk It would be super helpful to exclude list of accounts from "Following" section if those accounts are added to "Notifications". This would reduce double impressions and save users a lot of time and not force them to read same messages twice.

Please post feedback for improving the 𝕏 algorithm in replies. Be as specific as possible and include examples.

Let me know if you can relate to this: - USPS delivers piles of garbage to house in form of spam mail - Person walks to place where garbage is delivered, either front of home or mailbox outside - Person walks back and sorts through garbage - Person finds 2 pieces of mail amongst 20+ pieces of garbage - Person opens 2 pieces of mail and realizes it's also garbage - Person then puts the entire pile of garbage delivered by USPS into the garbage - The cycle repeats USPS is nothing more than a taxpayer-funded garbage distributor in many instances. How do we fix this?

@SawyerMerritt Or Tail Decent Controllers.

@SawyerMerritt Interesting. No canards..

Updated renders of SpaceX's Lunar Starship.

@JohnAlden47 @garyblack00 Does that mean that the way Gary calculates price target is not right? Considering that he doesn't account for market sentiment?

@prmody @garyblack00 yes

We wouldn’t ordinarily raise our $TSLA price target unless we raise our long-term earnings estimates, or we believe TSLA’s growth rate will accelerate (which increases TSLA P/E). We fully expected a Trump victory and shouldn’t be raising our TSLA price target just because TSLA’s stock price is 30% higher following Trump’s victory.

@SpaceX This is Epic! Congratulations SpaceX!

Watch Starship's fifth flight test twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1…

@farzyness @HansCNelson The door line looks like a normal coupe on the teaser. Different from the book render.

@farzyness @garyblack00 @garyblack00 needs a few years of working at Tesla to understand the difference.

Tesla controls the manufacturing of these L4/L5 systems. They have shown they can manufacture these at millions per year already - and will continue to grow the scale with every-cheaper vehicle platforms like the compact 2-seater form factor. They also control the app ecosystem - which means that companies like Uber will have a natural disadvantages such as: - Having higher prices vs companies like Tesla since they need to pay themselves to offer the service - They will Osbourne the shit out of their existing business model (cars with drivers) if they offer a price anywhere close to what Tesla will be able to offer without drivers, which will further make them less price competitive. Tesla's approach is also much faster to scale given that a) they are vision only + compute, requiring no more than $2k of COGS, if that, per car to make them fully autonomous b) no need for HD maps c) is the only western company approved to operate in the world's largest market in China. Companies like Uber are so incredibly useless and obsolete in a world where Tesla solves for Autonomy that it's not even funny.

The big disconnect between $TSLA bulls like @farzyness and me: I believe others will develop and be approved for unsupervised L4/L5 autonomy around the same time as $TSLA is. I also believe $TSLA will roll out its robotaxi platform one region at a time since in addition to regulatory approval they need infrastructure (set-up, monitoring, rescue) to launch. Farzad thinks TSLA will have a monopoly on unsupervised L4/L5 autonomy even though others ( $BIDU $MBLY $GOOG) have already been approved to deploy their own L4/L5 autonomous vehicles. We are also seeing increased segmentation between consumer and industrial strength autonomous vehicles. $BIDU recently estimated the cost of manufacturing its RT6 Apollo robotaxi is now under $30K excluding the battery so the idea that no one except TSLA can make money on autonomy seems absurd.

@chipmonkey75 I wonder what the V8 or V16 would look like. 🤔

@chipmonkey75 She is awesome, and so is the V3. 🎉

The rare but awesome #SickBurn from Gwynne! She's totally underrated, btw, since Elon gets the spotlight so often. 🚀 Also great shot of the new #raptor #engine working.