Ren

Five key points >TSMC has not stumbled in Co-Packaged Optics CPO and has already entered mass production In cooperation with Broadcom it has shipped over fifty thousand Tomahawk 5 Bailly switches > Meta reliability study covers more than one million 400G port device hours with zero link failures > Broadcom third-generation Davisson 1024Tbps was launched in October 2025 using TSMC COUPE process > NVIDIA Quantum X Photonics will enter mass production in early 2026 > Spectrum X CPO follows in second half of 2026 both based on TSMC technology Although Intel EMIB has advantages in yield and thermal management with long-term silicon photonics investment It remains at demonstration stage with no customer shipments yet — Three conclusions > TSMC has successfully crossed the CPO production threshold Ecosystem partners such as Broadcom and NVIDIA are jointly advancing the industry > Technical superiority does not guarantee market dominance Semiconductor history has many cases of excellent architectures that ultimately failed > Intel may capture 15 to 25 percent share in the CPO field But 90 percent forecasts are overly optimistic and require the entire supply chain to fail simultaneously — > > > TSMC has never hyped itself aggressively But always delivers on schedule with yields on schedule Therefore Tier-1 customers in the market all use TSMC chips — Additional point on process leadership TSMC now maintains at least one full generation lead in mass production processes compared to Intel A new tech node must undergo extensive IP verification and library development before design houses can use it reliably This makes mature verified and volume-produced nodes extremely valuable for the most advanced products They ensure design houses achieve expected performance without unexpected bugs or stability issues If a foundry delays wafer delivery the design house risks handing its hard-won time-to-market advantage directly to competitors — Real-world example Intel struggled for years with its 10nm process delays which dragged on from planned volume production in 2016-2017 until full ramp in 2019 This allowed AMD to fully switch to TSMC 7nm and launch competitive Ryzen and EPYC products years ahead gaining massive market share in CPUs while Intel lost ground in data centers and client PCs during that period​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ $TSM