Sherlock | DeFi Researcher

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Sherlock | DeFi Researcher

Sherlock | DeFi Researcher

@Sherlockwhale

| Founder @Foxianorg | Blockchain & Web3 Researcher | | Physics Graduate | Time-Series Data Analyst |

Katılım Haziran 2023
244 Takip Edilen15.2K Takipçiler
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Sherlock | DeFi Researcher
Sherlock | DeFi Researcher@Sherlockwhale·
I found a pattern on Bitcoin that has a 100% win rate across 8.5 years of data. 18 out of 18 with zero exceptions. Every week, Bitcoin opens at a price on Monday and if by Thursday the lowest price of the entire week has not dipped more than 0.25% below that Monday opening price, the week closes green. Every single time. 18 for 18 since 2017. The probability of this happening by random chance is 1 in 131,072. The average return when this pattern triggers is +10.98%. Not 2% or 3% but almost 11% in a single week. The smallest green was +1.9%. The largest was +28.8%. Even the worst outcome was solidly profitable. It works in every market condition: 2018 bear market: +28.8% 2022 bear market: +8.6% 2023 recovery: +21.9% 2024 bull market: +11.8% March 2026, three weeks ago: +10.4% Bull market, bear market or sideways, it does not matter. If sellers cannot push price even a quarter of a percent below the weekly open in 4 full days, buyers are in complete control. The rest of the week is just momentum playing out. Every Thursday, check one thing. What was the lowest price of the week so far? If it never dropped more than 0.25% below Monday's open, the week closes green and there will be no further dump, you can stay comfortable in your longs. Bookmark this and check this by Thursday close (today). If price has not dipped 0.25% below 66,000 (Monday open), there will be no further dump.
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Sherlock | DeFi Researcher
Sherlock | DeFi Researcher@Sherlockwhale·
Bitcoin has printed one of the ugliest weekly candles you can get. Not because it was red but because of how it closed. Last week, price opened at $82,210, pushed up, failed, then closed at $77,457. That means the weekly candle did three things at once: 1- Red after a green week. 2- Body engulfed the previous green weekly candle. 3- Closed below the previous weekly low. This exact setup has appeared 33 times on Binance since 2017. In the next 12 weeks: 31 out of 33 times, Bitcoin traded at least 3% lower. 28 out of 33 times, Bitcoin traded at least 5% lower. 25 out of 33 times, Bitcoin traded at least 8% lower. 23 out of 33 times, Bitcoin traded at least 10% lower. The average drawdown after this setup was -20.9% and the median drawdown was -15.8%. Price closed last week at $77,457. A median version of this move would send Bitcoin near $65K and an average version would send it close to $61K.
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Sherlock | DeFi Researcher
Sherlock | DeFi Researcher@Sherlockwhale·
Had an amazing day in @FOXIANORG 6+ scalp trades executed, all closed in profit. +3 successful scalps on $TRUTH +1 scalp each on $LAB, $IRYS, and $QUSDT
Sherlock | DeFi Researcher tweet mediaSherlock | DeFi Researcher tweet mediaSherlock | DeFi Researcher tweet mediaSherlock | DeFi Researcher tweet media
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Sherlock | DeFi Researcher
Sherlock | DeFi Researcher@Sherlockwhale·
When $84K broke in January, 1.2M bitcoin:native went underwater. Now price is rallying straight back into the zone where trapped buyers finally get the chance to sell near breakeven. Short Term Holders cost basis also sits around $86.9K–$88K. This is without any doubt one of the biggest supply clusters on the chart. Where do you think price is headed towards?
Sherlock | DeFi Researcher tweet media
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Sir Douglas
Sir Douglas@_Sir_Douglas·
@Sherlockwhale The real question is where do you see it going? You are extremely knowledgeable on this topic 👍 love your work
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Sherlock | DeFi Researcher
Sherlock | DeFi Researcher@Sherlockwhale·
Every Wednesday at exactly 17:00 UTC, mark the Bitcoin price. For the last 13 weeks, Bitcoin has traded lower by at least 1% within the next 24 hours. 13 out of 13 times and not once did it fail. The smallest drawdown was -1.11% The average drawdown was -2.58% The median drawdown was -2.40% The largest drawdown was -3.91% This week it happened again. Wednesday 17:00 UTC price was $81,452. Next 24h low was $79,500, a -2.4% down. ethereum:native did the same thing: 13/13 solana:So11111111111111111111111111111111111111112 did the same thing: 13/13 Raw P-Value is 0.000244. In plain English, that is roughly a 1 in 4,096 chance if this was random. Next Wednesday, mark the price at 17:00 UTC and watch the next 24 hours.
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FBI Boston
FBI Boston@FBIBoston·
🚨#BREAKING: An #FBI Boston investigation has resulted in charges against 30 individuals for their roles in a global insider trading scheme that netted tens of millions in illicit profits. The #FBI executed arrests in AL, CA, FL, NJ, and NY today for individuals who are accused of capitalizing on confidential information stolen from leading corporate law firms advising on mergers & acquisitions in Massachusetts and elsewhere. Two subjects, located in Israel and Russia, are actively being sought. Read more about today's takedown➡️: ow.ly/tyCh50YVHRu
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Sherlock | DeFi Researcher
Sherlock | DeFi Researcher@Sherlockwhale·
bitcoin:native In the previous weekly ranges, BTC and USDT.D moved almost perfectly inverse. BTC swept the range high and failed to hold. USDT.D swept the range low and failed to break down. This time BTC had already swept its range high, but USDT.D had not taken the range low yet, so one confirmation was missing. That is why I didn’t want to force the short early. Now USDT.D has finally swept the weekly range low. If it closes this week back inside the range, that becomes a failed breakdown on dominance. And if that happens while BTC is near $84K-$85K resistance, that is the actual short trigger for me. Not calling for a straight line dump. But structurally, this is where BTC can form the lower high that later creates the lower low.
Sherlock | DeFi Researcher tweet media
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Sherlock | DeFi Researcher
Sherlock | DeFi Researcher@Sherlockwhale·
bitcoin:native This is why you wait for the close. The equal high short got invalidated. Price did not just sweep the highs, it gave a daily close above them. More importantly, it closed above April’s high inside the first 5 days of May. Since 2017, whenever Bitcoin has closed above the previous month’s high in the first 4 days of a new month, price traded at least 5% higher later that month in 14 out of 16 cases. The p-value for the +5% stat is 0.00418, so roughly a 0.4% probability of being random. From yesterday’s close around $79.8K, that puts the magnet right around $83K-$85K. So no, I’m not shorting here. The first short is dead and the real short, if it comes, is higher.
Sherlock | DeFi Researcher tweet media
Sherlock | DeFi Researcher@Sherlockwhale

bitcoin:native If price only takes these equal highs and rejects, look for the short there after the daily close. If it actually breaks above April’s high at $79,485 before May 5, then don’t short immediately and let the breakout buyers chase it first. Since 2020, whenever price failed to break above April’s high in the first 5 days of May, it resulted in a red month but last year it broke April’s high on May 1, then ran another 16.9% to $111,980 by May 22. So, its important to see if April high gets reclaimed by Tuesday or not. If $79.5K gets reclaimed, the better short is higher, around $84K-$85K. Sweep and reject these highs = Short the sweep. Clean break above April high = Wait for the squeeze into $84K-$85K.

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Reuters
Reuters@Reuters·
Taiwan has a right to engage with the world and no ‌country can stop that, President Lai Ching-te told Eswatini's king after he arrived for a surprise trip that Taipei says Beijing tried to stop, as China called him a 'rat' reut.rs/4ukZ8HO
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Sherlock | DeFi Researcher
Sherlock | DeFi Researcher@Sherlockwhale·
@EmporosResearch I’m not saying it goes down in a straight line. That is literally the point of the post. I said if it only sweeps the equal highs and rejects, that is one short setup. If it breaks April’s high cleanly, I’m waiting higher around $84K-$85K. That is not “straight down.”
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Emporos
Emporos@EmporosResearch·
@Sherlockwhale There is almost no chance market goes straight down in a line like that in a month. Please go back to researching defi. This reeks of serious inexperience.
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Sherlock | DeFi Researcher
Sherlock | DeFi Researcher@Sherlockwhale·
bitcoin:native If price only takes these equal highs and rejects, look for the short there after the daily close. If it actually breaks above April’s high at $79,485 before May 5, then don’t short immediately and let the breakout buyers chase it first. Since 2020, whenever price failed to break above April’s high in the first 5 days of May, it resulted in a red month but last year it broke April’s high on May 1, then ran another 16.9% to $111,980 by May 22. So, its important to see if April high gets reclaimed by Tuesday or not. If $79.5K gets reclaimed, the better short is higher, around $84K-$85K. Sweep and reject these highs = Short the sweep. Clean break above April high = Wait for the squeeze into $84K-$85K.
Sherlock | DeFi Researcher tweet media
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