steeroid
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BREAKING: Iran’s Parliament Speaker just killed the ceasefire. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, March 10: “We are certainly not seeking a ceasefire. We believe the aggressor must be struck in the mouth. We will break this cycle of war, negotiation, ceasefire, war.” This arrives the same day the Wall Street Journal reports Trump’s advisers privately urging an exit. Oil crashed from $119.50 to below $91. The market exhaled. Iran’s second most powerful elected official just told the world the exhale was premature. Here is what every actor is actually doing while the ceasefire dies. The IRGC launched Wave 33 this morning. One-ton warheads on Kheibar Shekan missiles targeting Tel Aviv and the Fifth Fleet. Codenamed “Labbayk ya Khamenei” for a Supreme Leader who has not spoken and may not be conscious. General Mousavi announced no warhead below one ton from this point forward. Thirty-one autonomous provincial commands continue firing without central orders. The doctrine does not need a ceasefire because it was built to function without one. Seven P&I clubs, Gard, Skuld, NorthStandard, Steamship Mutual, American Club, Swedish Club, London P&I, covering 90% of global tonnage, cancelled war-risk cover on 5 March under Solvency II. Zero have reinstated. Hormuz crossings collapsed from 138 daily vessels to approximately 2. Premiums surged from 0.05% to 1-3% of hull value. The DFC’s $20 billion backstop has produced zero confirmed large-scale VLCC transits. Force majeures have cascaded from QatarEnergy to Saudi Aramco to Kuwait Petroleum to Bapco to Aluminium Bahrain to Yeochun NCC Korea to Formosa Taiwan to PCS Singapore to SCC Rayong Thailand. The naphtha-to-polyethylene chain feeding Asian manufacturing is broken. Ghalibaf’s rejection ensures it stays broken. China is not intervening. It is collecting. MizarVision publishes AI-labelled satellite imagery of every US asset in theatre. Shadow fleet vessels deliver drone components at night. The PLA is learning American reaction times, electronic warfare effectiveness, and interceptor depletion economics in the most comprehensive live-fire intelligence collection it has ever observed. Beijing does not need the war to end. It needs the war to teach. Russia is harvesting. Urals at yearly highs. Power of Siberia delivering 38.8 billion cubic metres to China. Putin evaluating a preemptive halt of European energy to redirect at Hormuz-inflated prices. The war finances Ukraine without Moscow firing a shot. The Houthis have resumed selective Red Sea strikes. If Bab al-Mandab activates alongside Hormuz, both chokepoints bracketing the Arabian Peninsula close simultaneously. Ghalibaf’s rejection extends the timeline in which that can happen. Twelve days. One Supreme Leader dead. One invisible. Thirty-three waves. Seven clubs withdrawn. 138 daily transits reduced to 2. Five navies deployed. Zero commercial transits restored. Zero insurance reinstated. Zero ceasefires. Zero negotiations. The war has no political exit because Ghalibaf closed it. No commercial exit because the actuaries closed it five days earlier. No military exit because the doctrine was designed to outlast every strategy conceived by the adversaries it was built to fight. The market priced a quick war. The doctrine priced a long one. Ghalibaf just told you which. Full analysis in the link. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
🚨🇮🇱🇱🇧 The Israeli army reports it completed a wave of attacks on Hezbollah's key centers in Beirut @AlArabiya_Brk
