SYD TANG
16 posts


I’m not convinced $ODD has fixed its Meta CAC issue.
IL MAKIAGE shows only 2 active Meta ads, despite ~680 ads since Jan. If you exclude January, only ~150 remain.
SpoiledChild has lots of historical Meta ads but none active. MethodIQ appears to have no active ads and no meaningful history.
Meanwhile, IL MAKIAGE’s TikTok videos are only getting hundreds/low-thousands of views, and Google ads presence looks limited.
Similarweb also shows most social traffic to ilmakiage.com coming from Pinterest, X, and YouTube — not Instagram/TikTok. Pinterest is 40.7%, X 27.1%, YouTube 22.8%, TikTok 4.7%, and Instagram just 2.7%.
Hard to see Pinterest/X replacing Meta at scale for paid beauty acquisition.
Maybe they’re deliberately pausing unprofitable spend. But based on visible channel checks, I don’t see evidence that the Meta acquisition engine is fixed

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@matt_barrie $56.1 billion for the NDIS? Welcome to our socialist utopia
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@PawlukZenon @weary_centurion The 'Try Before You Buy' model is built on trust. If $ODD fulfills its promise and makes returns easy, the positive feedback is genuine. Satisfied service leads to satisfied ratings; it's that simple
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@weary_centurion Lol $ODD's deep technical work on fixing the ad algorithm disruption is to game the algos to not see returns as returns (say to keep product), and a fake "Head of Support" personally reaching out to artificially boost survey metrics.
I wonder how Meta, Google will like this🤔

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$ODD
Something is happening with SpoiledChild
Iv been tracking TrustPilot review data since November last year when I started seriously looking at the company
Back then, they had a total of 3,668
In the space of just 6 months, that number has reached 7,837, with 500 reviews being added in the last 2 week period alone
For context, in January 2025 they only had around 150 reviews. It took them less than a year to bring in 3,500, a more than 20x from the start of the year
But in only 6 months since then, more than double that amount of reviews has been pulled in
This is a massive implied acceleration and seems to correlate with the explosion in data we have seen in internet traffic Q1 metrics
In the last 6 months they have grown faster than the previous 3 years combined in terms of review volume. Their avg. score has also ticked up from 4.2 to 4.3 in that time period
This is only a small snap shot of actual business. The sample size here is likely a small fraction of total sales volume. But one thing is for sure, growth looks to be exploding at SpoiledChild
The same is happening with METHODIQ at an even higher trajectory as per my recent post
In a year or two, I don’t think IL MAKIAGE growth is going to matter anymore. There is a good chance METHODIQ is disrupting and pulling business away from IL MAKIAGE.
Normally, this would concern me. But in this case, you are trading fickle, more unlikely to remain loyal makeup customers for potentially lifetime users as a result of health issues being resolved and effectively managed. Longer term, I think METHODIQ will become far stickier and higher margin than IL MAKIAGE. And that’s why I don’t care that the two brands are effectively competing with each other right now
Very excited to see what data we have on SC and METHODIQ at Q1 and potential guidance for Q2. I suspect SpoiledChild will outperform this year by a wide margin
I am not really concerned at all about the slowdown in IL MAKIAGE. At present, it is a funding vehicle for SC and METHODIQ. Once the two newer brands have scaled, it’s their future I am excited about, not IM. I would not invest in this company if IM was their only brand
Based off of their recent hires, I suspect brand 4 is going to turn some heads when it’s finally announced and launched. I don’t know what it will be, but I suspect it will be a further move into the medical/science field, moving the company even further away from makeup as its primary identity
I am happy for a delay in brand 4 if that happens. It makes sense now to scale SC and methodiq. They don’t need a 4th brand right now. But that is their decision. I am fine with either route.
The plaintiff deadline is on Monday. Following that we may see a retort from the company and a move to dismiss. We should also get a PR for earnings either next week or the week after
Not financial advice
Not financial advice



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@PawlukZenon @weary_centurion If a customer is happy with a smooth refund process, why shouldn't they leave a good review? It’s not 'gaming the system'—it’s providing great service. An unhappy customer wouldn't give a 5-star rating just because they were asked to
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@saguieig @weary_centurion They borrowed $600M from an over-eager market at zero cost when the stock was expensive, then used that free money to buy back their own shares at a 80% discount when the market panicked — paying nothing to borrow, and creating multiples of value before the debt is ever due.
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@weary_centurion Convertible notes,even if 0% & undrawn, it's future obligation due 2030
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$DLO D-Local is a solid company
But I think Oddity Tech is better
$ODD will clear $1B revenue probably next year due to the advertising setback
Profitable since inception with the following revenue trajectory:
2020: $110M
2021: $223M
2022: $325M
2023: $509M (IPO)
2024: $647M
2025: $810M
2026 will likely be $850M - $900M
2027 they will probably clear $1B
• Whilst buying back shares
• Whilst remaining profitable
• Whilst returning capital to shareholders
• Whilst building new brands
• Whilst reinvesting aggressively
• With elite gross margins of 70%+
• Whilst having a pristine balance sheet
It amazes me every day how many people are sleeping on this company
Not financial advice
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@lidangzzz 中國人均也才12000,,好像也沒多高,靠的就人多韭菜多,上海一線城市還算可以,很多鄉下地方真的窮到不行,所以中國很多人會被騙去緬北,不是沒有道理
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陈奕迅和赵本山在泰国演出取消了,估计12个月内其他人也都不敢开演唱会了。
很多老中会告诉你,“泰国很安全”、“曼谷民风比上海淳朴”——对,只要你天天吃饭、打卡、旅游,只接触机场、旅馆工作人员和饭馆服务员,泰国确实好。
其实也不用脑子想想,一个人均GDP7000刀的国家,法治和治安能强到哪里去, 如果社会治安和风气这么好,曼谷怎么没早点把上海宏观产业经济给直接干死。
明明就是对灰色产业睁一只眼闭一只眼,明面上吸引全球游客来养老、度假、消费、娱乐,私下对各种犯罪放纵,营造“无人监管的法外之地”,这才是这些地方的本质。
一个比他妈贵州还穷的国家,被一群老中意淫吹捧,狂吹从老百姓到政府道德自律、法制健全到食品安全,全面追赶西欧国家的水平,纯粹是他妈自欺欺人。
党哥再跟大家嘱咐一句,为了一个安全和完善的法治生活环境,普通人的地板是上海,不能去比上海更差的地方,下限是韩国、马来西亚,
任何比上海更差、更穷的地方,只会比上海更乱、更复杂、犯罪更多,轻则财产归零,重则产生生命危险,
对于绝大多数普通国内中产而言,上海就是自己能工作生活的天花板,与其天天在这些粪坑国家(葡萄牙、泰国、各种岛国、希腊)里吃屎,还不如踏踏实实在上海工作生活。
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