Antonio Lengua

videoregistrazione dello special "Mindfulness e Trading", trasmesso mercoledi 19/9 su ClassCnbc : Marco Poggi ed io intervistati per 45' da Emerick DeNarda video.milanofinanza.it/classcnbc/trad…

@shanaka86 On CNBC the calculations of Iran stocking capacity is totally different cnbc.com/2026/04/30/tru…

BREAKING: Iran has offered Washington a deal through Pakistani mediators to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war while postponing all talks on its nuclear program to a later stage. Axios reported the proposal late yesterday. Trump’s national security team is reviewing it in the Situation Room today. The headlines are reading this as Iranian sequencing. War end first, sanctions relief, blockade lift, then nuclear later. The structural reading is the opposite. The proposal is not a negotiating posture. It is a confession of physical constraint that the storage math has already settled. On April 26, TankerTrackers published satellite-based open-source intelligence reporting approximately one point zero five billion dollars of Iranian crude forced back to Kharg by US Navy interdictions, with a separate three hundred eighty million dollars seized by the US Coast Guard in the Indian Ocean and diverted toward the United States. CENTCOM’s running tally of redirected vessels rose to thirty-eight on April 27. At Brent prices near one hundred seven dollars per barrel, the implied volume returned and seized sits between thirteen and fourteen million barrels. Kharg’s onshore spare capacity at blockade start was approximately thirteen million barrels. The returned cargoes alone exceed it. Iran’s continued loading of four point six million barrels at terminals on April 24, plus an estimated four million additional barrels exfiltrating dark across the blockade line per TankerTrackers, does not reset the math. It accelerates it. Production runs at three point zero six million barrels per day per OPEC. Refining and domestic demand absorb a fraction. The remainder accumulates with nowhere left to go. NASHA, the thirty-year-old VLCC towed to Kharg as emergency floating storage, was supposed to buy forty-eight hours of buffer. NASHA arrives this week into a system that no longer has the buffer to extend. The reservoir physics now move from theoretical to imminent. Kpler’s April 26 analysis of the Asmari and Bangestan formations notes natural decline rates of four to twelve percent annually without pressure support, fracture-dependent productivity, and the explicit warning that “reservoir performance can deteriorate quickly and, in some cases, irreversibly” once pressure support is disrupted. Vaughn Cordle’s same-day mechanics breakdown on Substack describes the cascade: pressure collapse first, water and gas coning through fracture networks, then matrix compaction permanently reducing permeability around the wellbore. Rystad estimates three hundred thousand to five hundred thousand barrels per day of permanent capacity loss. Iranian field permeability does not recover. The fractures that built the regime’s revenue base accelerate its destruction once the pressure equilibrium fails. This is the trade structure inside the Axios proposal. The IRGC is asking to surrender what its physics no longer permits it to defend, the Hormuz blockade leverage, in exchange for the only thing that can save the reservoirs, an end to forced shut-ins. Nuclear deferral is the price tag attached. Sequencing is the fig leaf. The blockade has won the argument the talks have not yet started. President Trump cancelled the Witkoff and Kushner delegation to Islamabad on April 25 citing the Iranian position. He is reviewing the proposal in the Situation Room today while explicitly maintaining the naval blockade. He is reading the same gauges Tehran is reading. He is letting them fill. The blockade does not need to break Iran. The blockade is letting Iran’s reservoirs do that. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

VOLUME TALKS, youtube h 8:15 # 946 Saltano negoziazioni ma sell-off contenuto: si guarda agli earnings INDICI ES 6900 resistenza, MM200. BONDS rendimenti in salita Orban KO youtube.com/live/ZDi78_WbI…

VOLUME TALKS, youtube h 8:15 # 945 Rally per tregua (traballante) INDICI vicini a resistenze pre-guerra, spread dax/es stabile, trimestrali in arrivo BONDS rendimenti in discesa, spread Corporate si stringono Aste Usa ok. Oggi GDP, domani CPI youtube.com/live/XH0ewj0mZ…

VOLUME TALKS, youtube h 8:15 # 944 Trump raffredda il trade “fine guerra”,ancora 2-3 settimane. Tutte le opzioni sono sul tavolo (marines ecc). INDICI cancellano rally di ieri BONDS +10bp rendimento Domani festività + NFP youtube.com/live/LqL5E6Yzf…

VOLUME TALKS, youtube h 8:15 # 943 La scadenza del 6aprile incombe Wti 101 INDICI Leggero risk-on nella notte. BONDS : dopo reflazione, cominciano a prezzare rischio recessione? Collar JPM scade fine mese Macro: CPI €, PMI, NFP (venerdi) youtube.com/live/i3ppfvet3…

Domani, giovedì 26 marzo, alle11 con Aga Barberini su Webank: youtube.com/live/U5rYYyivJ…

VOLUME TALKS, youtube h 8:15 # 942 FED standby ma non tranquillizza: lettera su indici e bonds INDICI: Spx triplo min 6630, NQ comp quadruplo min in pochi giorni BONDS rendimenti in salita dopo FED . Cdx HY a 350. OIL >90 domani OPEX, Buyback fermi youtube.com/live/EJMdWdoxp…

VOLUME TALKS, youtube h 8:15 # 941 Chiusura settimana con indici e bonds su minimi. Nel weekend nessun peggioramento, OIL 99 INDICI ES torna a 6600, doppio min? Spread dax/es FED BOC / BCE BOE BOJ + vix + quadruple witching youtube.com/live/Xfk2YID4x…,

@TheFedIsEvil @BobEUnlimited in jan 2020, i shorted heavily EU and US indices when I read that asymptomatic persons were infectious (jan 23). Kolanovic & others were calling an indices melt-up. Eventually I proved right but had to wait 1month and another leg up rally on indices. I see a similar complacency

@thehawktrader @BobEUnlimited Again I ask, are traders complacent like they were during the early stages of Covid?

Oil market facing supply gap of about 10mln bbl/d as long as the conflict continues, and it'll be tough to get even 2mln bbl/d out of G7 release. x.com/BobEUnlimited/…

VOLUME TALKS, youtube h 8:15 # 940 Iran mantiene alta la tensione, OIL 94, fine guerra si allontana INDICI timori private credit, canali discendenti, 2°onda ribass? KIE insur BONDS rendimenti in salita, bund quasi 3% Cpi no news, domani PCE youtube.com/live/1Ki3V4_MX…

@TheFedIsEvil @BobEUnlimited I think so

@TheFedIsEvil @BobEUnlimited sell off started feb 20 at 11.45 ET with a huge volume spread on all EU and US indices, feb 24 , after a brief pullback, the sell off went ahead with same volume as on feb 20. Feb 24 opened in gap down and the snow ball became an avalanche.

@BobEUnlimited Do you think traders are late to act, similar to what we saw during Covid? Covid was known by Jan 2020, but the market selloff happened in March.

VOLUME TALKS, youtube h 8:15 # 939 Con OIL a 108, si allineano tutti i risk-off: inflazione, recessione, private credit/equity INDICI ES 1° tgt 6600, γ negativa, spread dax/es BONDS Bund al 3%, top rendimento dal 2020 Blackout FED, Cpi US mercoledi youtube.com/live/52pPjifWN…

@shanaka86 if the reinsurance program is rolling, could it mean that 60 ships are insured during the transit through Hormuz, and, once transited, other classic forms of reinsurance can replace the DFC insurance ? So, 1st transit of 60 ships, then the insurance is moved to 2nd 60 , ecc ecc?

JUST IN: The most powerful military in human history just admitted that aircraft carriers cannot reopen the Strait of Hormuz. An insurance policy can. And the insurance policy is $332 billion short. The Trump Administration announced a $20 billion reinsurance program through the Development Finance Corporation to cover war risk losses for vessels transiting the Persian Gulf. The DFC will coordinate with the Treasury Department and CENTCOM. Priority goes to oil, gasoline, LNG, jet fuel, and fertilizer. The stated goal is to physically get tankers moving again through the strait that carries twenty percent of the world’s petroleum. Read those numbers again. Twenty billion in coverage. JPMorgan estimates the aggregate war risk exposure for all Gulf maritime commerce at $352 billion. The program covers less than six percent of the total insured value at risk in those waters. A single very large crude carrier can carry $300 million in insured cargo. Sixty six ships and the entire program is exhausted. This is not a criticism. This is the single most important admission in the entire war. For eighty years the United States Navy has guaranteed freedom of navigation through the world’s critical waterways by projecting military force. Two carrier strike groups sit in the theater right now. More firepower concentrated in one body of water than most nations possess in their entire military. And none of it can make a tanker move. Because the tanker’s problem is not Iranian missiles. The tanker’s problem is that seven Protection and Indemnity clubs cancelled war risk coverage effective March 5. Without that coverage the ship cannot satisfy insurance covenants in its financing agreement, cannot meet coverage requirements of the destination port, cannot fulfill liability terms of its charter contract. A ship without P&I coverage is legally excluded from global maritime commerce regardless of how many warships surround it. The DFC program is the United States government saying out loud, through the structure of the solution it chose, that this is a financial problem dressed in military clothing. The aircraft carriers provide the security perimeter. The reinsurance provides the permission to sail. Without both, nothing moves. The Navy can sink every Iranian vessel afloat and the tankers still will not transit until someone in an office in London or Bermuda or Connecticut underwrites the voyage. Seven letters from seven insurance clubs closed Hormuz. The United States just responded with an eighth letter. The question every oil trader should be asking is whether $20 billion in rolling coverage is sufficient to convince a shipowner to send a $300 million asset through waters where Iranian drones struck the Skylight on March 1, where GPS jamming affected 1,100 vessels in a single day, and where the reinsurance market that normally prices this risk has formally and contractually withdrawn. The programme exists. The ships have not moved. The gap between the announcement and the first insured transit is where the real price discovery happens. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

►► Oro Nero e Linee Rosse : geopolitica e economia nel cuore del Golfo oggi webinar su youtube : Marco Grisantelli e il sottoscritto. allee 18:00 mezzora per inquadrare cosa sta succedendo e cosa potrebbe accadere. youtube.com/live/Wv9xHrG99…

VOLUME TALKS, youtube h 8:15 # 938 INDICI EpicFury muove poco gli indici, preoccupa invece privatecredit e fallimento MFS in UK. Opzioni ES 6850 6800 6700, Sx7e TestaSpalla BONDS poco flight to quality. OIL +5% a 72, il minimo sindacale.. youtube.com/live/VdB6-tGtW…

VOLUME TALKS, youtube h 8:15 # 936 INDICI Nvidia tiene il 200, no melt-up sopra 7000 ES. Recupero SaaS ma non il privateCredit. Sx7e su spalla destra. BONDS rendimenti in salita, spread Corporate stabili Asta 5yr debole, oggi 7yr youtube.com/live/56g_U5jq6…

VOLUME TALKS, youtube h 8:15 # 935 Ven: paura AI + forte di CPI benigni INDICI Spx chiude su minimi laterale di 180punti, 6900 res. 2° onda? EU + forti BONDS flight to quality, negano tutte figure bearish oggi US chiusi, in settimana scad VIX,opex youtube.com/live/6Qg28icqy…

VOLUME TALKS, youtube h 8:15 # 934 Attesa per CPI domani. INDICI bancari e wealth management in lettera, seguiti da real estate x AI. SPX pullback dai massimi. BONDS Dopo NFP, rendimenti +9bp Lun US chiusi, long week end, OIL sempre comprato youtube.com/live/trxgDMIUA…

VOLUME TALKS, youtube h 8:15 # 932 Warsh scusa per sell off metalli preziosi BTC. Colloqui in ME: oil giu. INDICI dax debole vs 24k, US tengono meglio ma aumenta la vola BONDS leggero flight to quality BCE+BOE, no shutdown, PMI NFP youtube.com/live/jrDwszjtL…