BioEntSD

142 posts

BioEntSD

BioEntSD

@therealstansd

Katılım Ocak 2025
130 Takip Edilen65 Takipçiler
BioEntSD
BioEntSD@therealstansd·
The correct way to look at this is: ANY nimble US biotech can produce the same level of efficiency as "the China biotech" by using Chinese CROs. Speaking from personal experience.
Pearl Freier@PearlF

A US-based biotech VC told @damiangarde: "you can spend $10 million on a best-in-class drug from China, or you can hire 25 people in the US & pay them some $40 million over 3 years to get to the exact same point. In general, going with China works out to a roughly 50% cost savings, he said, meaning the same monetary investment can fund double the work."

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BioEntSD
BioEntSD@therealstansd·
@jrkelly With all due respect, this line of thinking comes from a fundamental lack of understanding of how innovation actually happens. "Fast following" inherently is NOT evil, it's NOT theft, it's how a big part of innovation is done. We'd do the society a huge disservice to demonize it
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Jason Kelly
Jason Kelly@jrkelly·
This will not end well for the US biopharma industry. The BMS/Hengrui deal announced yesterday includes co-commercialization which is the last piece after manufacturing and discovery that has not been present in Chinese drug cos. If we want to maintain our lead in US biotechnology we need to: 1. Drop cost and increase speed of phase 1 clinical trials in US. Good progress here recently from @US_FDA 2. Drop cost and increase speed of the lab work that drives product development in therapeutics. At @ginkgo we believe you do this via autonomous robotic labs, but I'll take anything that works -- right now discovery is 1/3 the cost in China as bench scientists there are 1/3 the labor cost. 3. Improve IP protections so its not too easy to fast-follow a biologic -- often the ultra-risky first clinical work on a new target is done in US and Chinese startups are fast-following and easily designing around patent limitations on protein sequences. 4. Leverage the fact that US consumers are paying for 70% of the profits in the biopharma industry to put in place the sort of trade restrictions we use to protect domestic automotive, defense, AI, and other strategic industries. Easy way to get started here is add biotech to the COINS Act list of strategic technologies alongside chips, AI, quantum, drones, etc. We need to do it now. Democracies should control genetic engineering - it's not more complicated than that. "Hengrui, which has the option to co-develop certain assets and participate in commercialization globally, gains access to some of the fruits of BMS’ drug discovery engine, plus its partners’ global R&D, regulatory and commercial capabilities." fiercebiotech.com/biotech/bms-in…
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BioEntSD
BioEntSD@therealstansd·
@jrkelly This protectionist approach is a classic example of "the road to hell is paved with good intentions". Anything you propose to inhibit fast followers will come back to stymie innovation right here in the US. Higher heights are always reached by standing on the shoulders of another
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BioEntSD
BioEntSD@therealstansd·
@jrkelly Enough of this vitriol for fast followers!Let's be honest with facts: 1.There can only be ONE first-in-class;2. a single drug per class is not enough;3.later comers trend to be much better drugs and offer valuable differentiation;4.the line of BIC and FIC is increasingly blurred
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BioEntSD
BioEntSD@therealstansd·
@jrkelly Drug Discovery is so damn hard already. We need all the help we can get no matter where it's coming from. Protectionism will ultimately harm our industry and patients. Let's NOT inject politics into science PLEASE. It's medicines we're talking about here not weapons!
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BioEntSD
BioEntSD@therealstansd·
@NotGenentech @bioinvestor24 Of course. But you don't ignore a pristine early signal just because it's early. RVMD showed their 30% Grade 3+ toxicity profile very early in their own dose escalation. At comparable early stages, ERAS-0015 is showing 0 DLTs and 0 Grade 3 GI tox, objectively cleaner
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Bioinvestor24
Bioinvestor24@bioinvestor24·
From $ERAS BOA today. MGT indicates that investigators on trial described rash as better than what they saw with comparator compound. Also CEO stated that if 3 sets of data are C/W BIC response , there is no scientific reason to believe the 4th will not follow the same pattern .. ERAS0015 combo with $MRK pembro started And first ever response in RAS inh class with EGFR ab in CRC seen after first dose.
Bioinvestor24 tweet mediaBioinvestor24 tweet media
Bioinvestor24@bioinvestor24

Stifel on $ERAS data. KOL from MSKCC “KOL mentions that his patients are used to GI tox (i.e., nausea, diarrhea) which are common AEs that are generally well tolerated, but vomiting, seen with daraxonrasib, can be very bothersome. This was pointed out as an AE where ERAS-0015 appears to be numerically differentiating • The KOL was intrigued by early combinability of ERAS-0015 with panitumumab in CRC, but cautioned it is still too early to get overly excited. He said he would never want to combine daraxonrasib with an EGFR mAb, but the n=3 data presented by ERAS suggests ERAS-0015 could be combinable with EGFR mAb. • KOL said , based on his experience with $RVMD daraxonrasib, he would expect Asian patients to have less skin tox versus U.S. patients; thus, he is not fazed by the fact that ERAS only presented U.S. safety. • Regarding the pneumonitis-related death, the KOL seemed unfazed. He said PDAC patients can be incredibly sick and can deteriorate very quickly; while he would need to see this patient's file/scans to make a fair judgment call, he thinks it is possible the death was more related to the patient being very late stage versus a concerning drug-related AE. It is not uncommon for patients to withdraw supportive care at this stage. He also felt the history of cryoablation of pulmonary mets put the patient at high risk. Biologically, there is a known connection between the RAS inhibitor class and this risk, however, he said he has not personally seen a high grade pneumonitis with daraxonrasib likely because of RVMD's enrollment criteria excluding high risk patients

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BioEntSD
BioEntSD@therealstansd·
Potency doesn't automatically equal safety, but ERAS-0015 seems to have decoupled them. It's driving superior ORR at 1/10 the dose while hitting zero DLTs. Also, dropping the daily xenobiotic mass by 10 fold massively reduces direct chemical irritation on the gut mucosa. It all makes sense
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BioEntSD
BioEntSD@therealstansd·
@NotGenentech @bioinvestor24 The "How" is debatable. But ultimately what matters is ERAS-0015's empirical clinical data. So far it's showing strong signs of a much better TI--better safety and better efficacy
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BioEntSD
BioEntSD@therealstansd·
@bioinvestor24 This conflict of interest theory sounds quite compelling
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Bioinvestor24
Bioinvestor24@bioinvestor24·
Probably the most plausible explanation for resignation of two $TNGX board members who lead Nextech ( 60% of its funds in $RVMD ) is failed attempt by RVMD to acquire TNGX .. potentially as resentment to MGT stance One of them is also on RVMD board. RVMD can lock 40% of pancreatic ca cases that harbor MTAP deletion and prevent a collaboration with $ERAS RVMD enthusiasts are underestimating management concern about ERAS. This is rare in drug development to make a couple of changes in a molecule and end up with 10x higher potency.. Or they resigned due to conflict of interest if a deal getting close ? Overall TNGX was up big today .. leak ?
Bioinvestor24@bioinvestor24

I think $RVMD is very unhappy with $ERAS progress. We don’t know what is now going on behind the scene also from BP interest in ERAS. The phase 1 data are large and compelling. It can’t be coincidental two $TNGX board members strongly connected with RVMD ( financially and much more than TNGX ) to resign .. and the news TNGX initiating a trial with ERAS in H2 .. just my 2 cents. There could be other reasons.

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BioEntSD
BioEntSD@therealstansd·
@NotGenentech @bioinvestor24 Finding good investments is all about being able to connect the dots before the picture becomes definitive. Is the risk zero? Absolutely not. Is it asymmetrically favorable? Absolutely yes
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NotGenentech
NotGenentech@NotGenentech·
@bioinvestor24 Discussions around anti-EGFR combos...with data from 2 patients. Who runs this company?
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BioEntSD
BioEntSD@therealstansd·
@FidelisAurelius @TTRAmyloid Of course, although would Merck have signed this if they thought the IP overhang is insurmountable? Probably not.ERAS-0015 has to win on data. Never a question about that.Hard truth is clinically darax’s 30% Grade 3+ tox makes combos tough, and a total NoGo in CRC with anti-EGFR
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Fidelis Aurelius
Fidelis Aurelius@FidelisAurelius·
@therealstansd @TTRAmyloid Merck does this to every drug ever. It's in their interest to try and combo pembro with every molecule in existence. Merck takes no risk and only benefit if $eras wins. $eras on the other hand has to prove their copycat + pembro is superior to darax. Good luck to that.
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Not Odd
Not Odd@TTRAmyloid·
It gives me great pleasure to see $eras reacting poorly to the $mrk news. No $mrk will not buy $eras because they will lose in court. 😂
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BioEntSD
BioEntSD@therealstansd·
@avidresearch It's not what ERAS wants but what Merck wants that matters. Merck chose to work with ERAS-0015,who now has TWO BIC combo partners (TNGX's PRMT5).This Merck combo just makes all the sense scientifically. If this data kicks ass, MRK buys ERAS in a heartbeat, IP overhang be damned
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BioEntSD
BioEntSD@therealstansd·
@MarcJacksonLA Merck just lit a fire under RVMD's butt. It goes to show if you have a truly valuable asset, suitors will come knocking. And these are companies with the best-in-class combination partners: Tango's PRMT5i and Merck's anti-PD1. Validation for ERAS
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stock setter
stock setter@MarcJacksonLA·
$ERAS $MRK Erasca Announces Clinical Trial Collaboration and Supply Agreement with Merck to Evaluate ERAS-0015 in Combination with KEYTRUDA® (Pembrolizumab) stocktitan.net/news/ERAS/eras…
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BioEntSD
BioEntSD@therealstansd·
@unemon1 Good detective work. Still, why would the royalty holders only accept "make whole" with risk vs cash, unless the equity offers potentially a higher return? Which implies they considered 222 a share as a floor
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unemon
unemon@unemon1·
The $ABVX royalty buyback math is too precise to be a coincidence? ‼️Deal incoming at 222.29 USD per share? ‼️ Let me walk through it: The setup: - Royalty cap: €175m - ABVX bought it back for just €77m - Structure: 50% cash / 50% equity - Balance sheet: €500m cash+ planning a raise in June 🇫🇷Red flag #1: Why pay in equity at all?🇫🇷 - ABVX had more than half a billion in cash. They did NOT need to issue shares. Royalty buyouts are almost always done in cash. When equity is used, a lock-up is standard. - Here? No lock-up. None. 🇫🇷Red flag #2: The NPV math🇫🇷 - If maintenance data reads out positive and the asset is totally de-risked, the NPV of those royalties is ~€115m. - Royalty holders received €77m headline. So they took a ~33% haircut on de-risked value… voluntarily. Why would sophisticated counterparties do that? 🇫🇷Red flag #3: The make-whole price🇫🇷 - Run the math on the equity leg: if ABVX gets acquired at ~€190 / ~$222 per share, the royalty holders — thanks to the unlocked equity component — receive exactly €115m total. The full de-risked NPV. They get made whole. 🇫🇷Red flag #4: The rumored LLY offer🇫🇷 - The rumored Lilly bid? ~$225 / €192 per share. - That is almost precisely the make-whole price. Cushion of ~1% above the threshold — exactly the spread you'd expect if the buyback was reverse-engineered from an indicative bid. ‼️Putting it together:‼️ Equity used despite no need for equity ✅ No lock-up despite using equity ✅ Headline price implies haircut UNLESS stk rerates ✅ Stock re-rate price = rumored takeout price ✅ Each fact alone is explainable. Stacked together, they describe a structure where royalty holders accepted "cash today + optionality on a known catalyst" instead of full cash value. ‼️The open question: when?‼️ Coincidence? Possibly. But the numbers aren't approximate — they're exact. And the structure does work royalty buybacks normally don't need to do.
unemon tweet media
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