WinterTrader

@JoshMandell6 @dotkrueger “Sorry for the convenience”

Very short-term prices appear to be random/stochastic. There is a drift which appears to be downward when you're below the Power law trend price, occasionally corrected by dramatic repricing upwards. And when you're above the trend price the dynamic seems to reverse. In other words, in some regions it takes the escalator up and the elevator down and in other regions it takes the elevator up and the escalator down. When the power goes out, the escalator becomes stairs. H/T Mitch Hedberg

Bitcoin tends to drift down and then violently reprice upwards. The "trend" means nothing.

@JoshMandell6 $MSTR and $ASST? You still 2:1?

@lotusinvest777 @theresa_perrin 💯

@theresa_perrin @trader_winter This is a once in a generation dip on $GME , the lower this goes the higher the rebound . Buying time is when/if the deal is announced and we know exactly how many share are issued. I’ll be waiting cash on hand to load up

$GME Ryan Cohen is saying he is going to dilute you more to get the deal closed. Clear as day they don’t have $56B and need to issue stock to raise these funds.

@schang76 @SteveUrkelDude You’re exactly right. They had something they wanted him to say and he wasn’t going to say it. Smart investors know how to, and do, read filings and news releases. Cohen understands his fiduciary responsibility.

@SteveUrkelDude The CNBC people were asking loaded questions. They are accusing him of lying about his ability to buy Ebay, so why not just state their opinion instead they try to goad Ryan into "explaining the numbers" like they are not in finance. Can't they say "Ryan, GME can't afford Ebay"?

This is such a weird interview with Ryan Cohen. He’s asked where the cash will come from for $GME to acquire $EBAY and he can’t even answer the question - or he’s being a dick about it.. can’t tell.

@lotusinvest777 @theresa_perrin Absolutely. Apart from common I’m on the sell side of calls anymore. I don’t doubt LEAPS will become attractive though when price likely dips.

@trader_winter @theresa_perrin Long term yes this dip is a gift . If the deal goes through at this point we could see 10$ per share and that is a definite load up zone.

@theresa_perrin @lotusinvest777 Likely not a good time for swing traders. Dilution seems to be a given, all the hosts were trying to do was get Cohen to say the word. DCA is the smartest move for investors.

@lotusinvest777 It’s not a buy now though and I am sure all the Apes think otherwise.

Thank you @POTUS for letting me go wild.

@RachelDashCS Now revenues could potentially increase ~25%. Also, likely to test the monthly 200MA soon. Watching $FRO

Looking at some loooong term charts today... $FRO forming a possible cup & handle on the monthly *Not a recommendation

Anyone else notice that when one of our heroes was assinated in cold blood if front of thousands of people including his wife and young kids that not a single store in America had to board up their windows? That tell us everything you need to know.

We want justice. That's what the people telling us to "move on" from the Epstein case don't understand. We have a deep desire for justice, down in our bones, in our souls. We see how the corrupt and the powerful are never held accountable. We see violent criminals running rampant in our streets. We want these evil doers to be punished. We want the innocent to be vindicated and defended. We want justice. It's one of the most basic and most honorable of all human desires. So, no, we can't just drop it. Give us justice.

@jag1ra $2B is not strangling $2T

covered Call ETFs Like MSTY: The Financial Handjob Strangling Bitcoin’s Moonshot Let’s cut through the bullshit. MSTY—a covered call ETF slinging options on MicroStrategy (MSTR)—is the financial equivalent of edging Bitcoin’s price action. Here’s why this "income strategy" is cockblocking volatility and warping price discovery for both MSTR and Bitcoin: 1. IV Suppression: The Theta Decay Bukkake MSTY’s entire game is selling out-of-the-money (OTM) calls on MSTR, pocketing premiums like a degenerate at a roulette table But every call sold injects theta decay into MSTR’s options market, turning Bitcoin’s natural volatility into a limp noodle. MSTR’s IV gets gangbanged: By flooding the market with short calls, MSTY drowns implied volatility (IV), the lifeblood of options pricing. Lower IV = cheaper options = fewer traders betting on big swings Bitcoin’s proxy neutered: Since MSTR’s stock is a leveraged Bitcoin ETF in drag, suppressing its volatility spills over to BTC’s price action. No IV? No explosive rallies. Just sideways purgatory 2. The Gamma Trap: Market Maker Fuckery When MSTY sells calls en masse, market makers hedge by shorting MSTR shares to stay delta-neutral But here’s the kicker: Downward pressure: Constant shorting creates artificial selling pressure on MSTR, dragging its price below fair value. Since MSTR’s value is pegged to Bitcoin’s price, this distortion bleeds into BTC’s spot market Gamma squeeze prevention: If BTC starts ripping, MSTR’s price should explode. But MSTY’s avalanche of covered calls acts like a ceiling made of diamond-handed dildos, capping upside and triggering sell-offs when strikes are breached 3. Liquidity Cannibalism: Exit Liquidity for Degens MSTY’s 109% yield isn’t free money—it’s a tax on hopium. By hoarding premiums, the ETF starves MSTR’s options market of the gamma needed for parabolic moves: Retail trapped: Investors chasing yield pile into MSTY, not realizing they’re funding the IV suppression fucking their own Bitcoin longs Whales cornered: Big players can’t leverage MSTR options for bullish bets without battling MSTY’s theta decay tsunami. Result? Liquidity dries up, and BTC’s price discovery gets rug-pulled 4. The Death Spiral: BTC’s Leveraged Feedback Loop MSTR’s $46B Bitcoin stash makes it a systemic risk time bomb. If MSTY’s covered calls suppress MSTR’s price, it triggers a nightmare chain reaction: MSTR underperforms BTC → Arbitrageurs short MSTR vs. BTC futures, crushing its premium MSTR sells BTC to cover losses → BTC’s price tanks, triggering margin calls across crypto Rinse/repeat until Bitcoin’s back to $30k and Saylor’s filing for bankruptcy in the Bahamas. Bottom Line: MSTY’s a Trojan Horse This ETF isn’t “income”—it’s a volatility vampire sucking the life out of Bitcoin’s price action. By capping MSTR’s upside and starving the market of gamma, MSTY turns Bitcoin’s moonshot into a soggy firework. Want to fix it? Burn MSTY to the ground, buy spot BTC, and let the market breathe. Otherwise, prepare for leveraged carnage.

@bariksis $MSTR $600 at $BTC $200k would be P/E ratio under 3x, currently 7.33x. Maintaining 7.33x would equal $MSTR >$1500.

Bitcoin should be at $200K and $MSTR should be at $600. Change my mind!

@MaximusInvestor 62% to the upside in the 3 months following this one

@mrbitcoinbasics @BTCBullRider @Asymmetry_X Pretty sure it’s currently sitting at 7.03x. I definitely don’t see the street pricing at 25x, but much higher than 2.5x.

@BTCBullRider @Asymmetry_X Same. Divide by 10. More likely a 2.5X multiple. Stock price of $600. Sorry to be a koala 🐨 but if so few people understand Bitcoin after 15 years, it’ll take time for the Street to understand MSTR.

🚨$MSTR 2025 Price Target I'll take a stab. $21.1B of 21/21 ($42B) plan used so far Predicted BTC purchases remainder of 2025 $4.3B remaining Equity from 21/21 $18B remaining Fixed Income from 21/21 $22.3B total Assuming avg BTC price $125k for $22.3B in purchases: 178,400 BTC additional added (This is bear case, I personally think they complete 21/21 plan and announce additional capital plan before EOY) Current BTC: 471,107 Current BTC price: $96k Current BTC stockpile: $45B Cost basis: $30.4B or $64,511 per BTC BTC gain: $15B 2025 EOY BTC: 650,000 2025 EOY BTC price: $200k 2025 EOY BTC stockpile: $130B 2025 EOY cost basis: $52.7B or $81,077 per BTC 2025 EOY BTC gain: $77B Considering majority of purchases will be fixed income and not equity, majority of this gain is true gain (not dilutive). But to be conservative, let's round down to $60B BTC gain 25x (avg S&P500 PE 30x) mBTC gain: $1.5T Share price: $6000 @saylor @werkman @PunterJeff @nithusezni @btc_overflow @TimKotzman @Z06Z07

I am thrilled to announce Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as The United States Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS). For too long, Americans have been crushed by the industrial food complex and drug companies who have engaged in deception, misinformation, and disinformation when it comes to Public Health. The Safety and Health of all Americans is the most important role of any Administration, and HHS will play a big role in helping ensure that everybody will be protected from harmful chemicals, pollutants, pesticides, pharmaceutical products, and food additives that have contributed to the overwhelming Health Crisis in this Country. Mr. Kennedy will restore these Agencies to the traditions of Gold Standard Scientific Research, and beacons of Transparency, to end the Chronic Disease epidemic, and to Make America Great and Healthy Again!

the countdown begins

This yield curve inversion is WORSE than 1929 and 2008 Buckle up

@AMAZlNGNATURE At least post credit. Stuck N The Rut.

What is that sound coming from the forest? 😳

@elonmusk @pmarca C.G. Jung

@pmarca Civilizational suicide

@ChrisAngelini11 @jgatomoon @S_O_J_K_A If I remember correctly this ore will require special milling due to sulfides, more costly??? Any input on this?

@jgatomoon @S_O_J_K_A 1000-1100 oz gold and 11ish oz silver