Matthew Turk

@SCballrs Ballr boffins $$$

🔢 NUMBERS CRUNCHED 🤯 The ballr boffins love the wingers for the Eels and Roosters this weekend 👀 Here's how the game are expected to go in NRL Round 27 🚀 #SCballrs #NRLSuperCoach #SuperCoachNRL #NRL #Supercoach

@SCballrs @AmanTalksNRLSC Kurt Mann-bun?

If @AmanTalksNRLSC hair had a SuperCoach team… what would it be called? 😂 The community delivered some elite puns last night 👇now it’s your turn. Drop your best hair-related NRL player names in the comments 💈👇 #NRLSuperCoach #NRL #SuperCoachNRL #SCballrs

@SCballrs @AmanTalksNRLSC Waited all day for you to open this up! Bringing you; Fade Egan Ronaldo Mullet-alo Bob Toia Mitch Barnet (UK) Anthony See-bald (coach)

@SCballrs Kelly v Toia v Schiller Extra player request for my draft desires

PROJECTION POWER HOUR 🚀 Magic Round edition Week 2 is here — and so is Magic Round! From 4:30 – 5:30 pm AEST today, ballr is taking your projection requests. Reply with: 🔮 ONE player — get their Round 9 projection ⚔️ TWO players — we’ll break down the head-to-head matchup First in, first served. Let the Magic begin 👇 #NRLSuperCoach #NRL #SuperCoachNRL #SCballrs

@SCballrs Cobbo v CNK

@SCballrs Marky Mark v Billy Smith

PROJECTION POWER HOUR 🚀 Hot off launching ballr projections, we’re unleashing the ballr data machine from 4:30 – 5:30 pm AEST. Reply with: 🔮 ONE player — we’ll serve their Round 8 projection ⚔️ TWO players — we’ll run the head-to-head numbers First in, first served. Go! 👇 #NRLSuperCoach #NRL #SuperCoachNRL #SCballrs

🔥Matt said he hasn’t seen a rig like this in the NRL before… could SuperCoach eye candy Jamie Humphreys be a No.1 contender for the @TheNRLRoast Hottest 100 in 2025? 👀 #NRLSuperCoach #NRL #SuperCoachNRL #SCballrs #RoastHottest100

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@haralabob Bitcoin has never been a better bet than it is now. Our generation will be defined by who bought and who didn’t and you aren’t too late at these levels. In fact you are have a better bet than anyone who got rich guessing <$50000. Min hedge 5% of your net wealth. Win win.

@RufusPeabody Better golf courses than Kansas!

Not in Kansas anymore.

@RufusPeabody In addition, good punters can never lose LT. How much u win is a factor of how u can get set and how u can compound your bank roll. If you don’t ruin accounts in process (by arbs) you must always pursue increasing roll to turnover > on a bigger bank )even at occasional -EV cost)

@RufusPeabody Placing -EV bets is a pre-request of live trading. You have many opportunities to enter a market with your match roll. If you know you will have an opportunity to get it in better later (as basis diff from market) you should free roll to enter again on terms that > loss taken

This is a really good example of why you should take both sides of an arb, even the -EV one, provided betting limits are large enough relative to your bankroll that you're able to bet optimally. Attached image shows how much better off a bettor with a $100 bankroll is betting $65 on heads at +300 and $35 on tails at -125 than they would be just optimally betting tails. They create an effective bet of $37 to win $160 (+432.4). Though their ROI per dollar bet is less than the optimal tails bets (61.5% vs. 100%), their ROI on effective risk -- and bankroll, since they are putting it all in action -- is much much higher.

@Golfpunter1 Anyway I take you point in the industry as a whole I just wish you had picked a better target! Cheering them to have a 200-1 to go into profit and then everyone’s happy!!

@turkishbathtime Lets look specifically at this line; 'The number 1 in Golf Betting Tips for 2024' How do you honestly assess it? Is it true? Is it fair game to make that claim? Is it just a little mistruth and that it's what everyone does? Or is it just a deliberate and misleading lie?

Following on from yesterdays look at how some tipsters display data. That was from a websites European Tour selections. Different tipster, same website but now for the PGA Tour. 2018 -33pts 2019 -69pts 2020 +24pts 2021 -14pts 2022 +21pts 2023 +43pts 2024 -55pts (missing last couple of events) Total -83pts So slightly different in that its not just losing season after losing season. Down after the 7 seasons of tipping though. At favourable early prices. I even see things like enhanced odds used. A few gems from the website; "The number 1 in Golf Betting Tips for 2024" "Welcome to X, the United Kingdom’s number 1 independent website for free golf betting tips and a supporting suite of golf betting resources" As usual it is a website driven by affiliate deals rather than subscriptions. I wonder why. I guess it's like the whole industry. It's less about actually winning, doing what it says on the tin and more about "entertainment" via podcasts. The only thing I would say is that they are the ones making the claims you see above. No one is forcing them to. I love this game....

@Golfpunter1 It is clear for all to see/hear that this claim is not predatory in the way they present their tips or records or prices obtained (other than the tag line you seem to think is so valuable in driving their small and clearly well intentioned business).

@turkishbathtime Of course. We are always striving for that piece of information that may give an edge. The art is often in interpreting that information correctly. That's not my pt here though. They are not selling themselves as that.

@Golfpunter1 Honestly does anyone really care or take notice to that claim!? Even if they arrive at the site for that claim they stay for the content and free resource. What is the number one tipping site? Do you know? It’s all lip service (if that’s the right term)

@Golfpunter1 Being a good punter is a combo of maths x info and more info is nearly always better. I only need to hear 1 thing that’s resonates or hear of 1 injury I didn’t know about to profit to such an extent that it pays for my time to listen to it x 100. I imagine it’s the same for you.

Fair enough. I find this tricky. They are clearly nice guys. However, that doesn't mean they have carte blanche and can expect no one to question their claims. Nearly all the traffic they have driven to/through their website (prior to podcasts) is on the basis that they are golf betting experts. Not just golf betting experts but the very best. Number 1. That they are the best because they use the tools that they have available for anyone to use. It is what helped them to be so successful. They made these claims. No one else. They are number 1 on Google for 'golf betting tips'. Whilst it maybe "free" in terms of no subscription costs, they are clearly generating revenue in other ways (affiliate deals). The revenue generated will be directly correlated to the amount of users they can bring to their website, which is partly impacted by making claims such as 'The number 1 in Golf Betting Tips for 2024'. They made those claims for a reason. Only they know why. If you want to go down the route of entertainment (and the podcasts are very popular and well received - understandably so) that's fine. Sell yourselves as that though. People who love talking about golf, golf betting, golf stats. To portray yourselves as golf betting experts though would be somewhat misleading. To claim to be the 'The number 1 in Golf Betting Tips for 2024' is just dishonest, irrespective of what you say/allude to on podcasts. They have clearly amended the website and updated it for the 2024 season. They clearly believe it to still be true or it serves a purpose. Update the website to reflect the actual realities. Otherwise you might not like it if you are called out for it. All the thumbnails for their podcast relate to golf betting. They call it a golf betting show. That may seem harsh given how many bad actors operate in this space. Fwiw I am not comparing them to others. This is a unique situation. However, I will always call things as I see them.

@Golfpunter1 Maybe it is the problem with the industry but not with these guys themselves. You know that if you have listened to their pod content (which I assume you have). Just saying of all the people to call out these are not the people ones and that’s unfair

@turkishbathtime This is part of the problem with the industry. If you don’t want to be judged by your golf tips then don’t put them out there and claim to be the best at it. Claiming to be golf betting experts when the record would suggest otherwise. Fun interesting free golf content. Fine.

@Golfpunter1 In addition, even if they lose, and in turn their followers lose (by proxy), I would argue they lose at a much lower rate than they would without their resource. Thats +ive $ to the punter if the $ would have been spent by then anyway

@Golfpunter1 The reason i jump in is not be a smart ass but to stand up for those boys in the instance where your followers are one google away from finding out who you are taking about and that’s potentially unfair to what is a cracking small (free) resource