VZ

I’ve been lurking on X for years – consuming, never contributing. That changes now. My philosophy is simple – I only focus on companies or assets that meet two criteria: 1. A legitimate reason why it’s mispriced RIGHT NOW 2. A real catalyst for why today is the entry point – not 6 months ago, not 5 years from now Every post will have a conviction score (#1–10) at the top. Low numbers = brainstorming and research. High numbers = where I’m actually putting money. Not every post deserves equal weight – this system keeps me honest. I started this account for a few reasons: to think out loud publicly, get feedback from smart people, timestamp my ideas so I can reflect and improve, and hold myself accountable to having real logic behind every investment. This is my public investing journal. I’m here to get better – follow along if that interests you.

@aleabitoreddit Would love to know what market cap you believe they should or can be worth in next 1-2 year when comparing with valuations to similar companies in the industry currently.

For $SIVE to become the next $80B+ $LITE. Sivers is the current laser kingmaker of the optical transition to CPO and 1.6T. They basically supply lasers to the leading players in the CPO space. From likely $MRVL Celestial, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, $POET, and others for CPO. before they got big. And now with large players like $JBL for 1.6T LRO + more test/qualifications underway for pluggables. They've finally solved the Catch22 problem, and have the attention of the market to pull off foundational CPO related IP acquisitions downstream on NASDAQ listing (or now with equity). And expand revenue as much as possible from the laser source into: -> Optical Engine/ELS value. -> Optical Transceiver IP Just like $LITE did to drive their valuations from $2B -> $80B in 2 years. But instead of EML + pluggables, Sivers is doing this for the CPO supercycle, the fastest TAM expansion in history for photonics. I'm following the story for them to pull this off this David vs. Goliath shift catching up to $LITE. More than I care about little MC % returns that's happening currently.

A few weeks ago I posted my case for why $RDW was near its low at $9.28. It’s now at $17.63. Up roughly 90% from there. And my calls are up +382%. Not posting this just to flex, posting it because the setup is what matters. Maximum pessimism, forced selling, a beaten-down name with catalysts on the calendar. That’s the pattern. I think $HIMS is the same setup right now. I called its bottom to be at or very near $21-22 with c:9, my highest conviction ever. The convertible note pressure just cleared, and the real catalyst, the FDA peptide panel, is July 23–24. Not guaranteeing a repeat. But the ingredients that worked on RDW are the ones I see on HIMS. We’ll know by summer.

Portfolio update – end of week. Account at an all-time high: $13,140. The app shows +238% YTD. That number actually understates my trading performance, because it’s diluted by cash I deposited along the way. More accurately it would be +400–500% YTD. I started the year with about $2K of original capital. I then deposited around $1,500–$2,000 over the last couple months. Strip the ~$1.5–2K in later deposits back out, and that starting stake accounts for roughly $11K of today’s value – call it a ~465% return. Even on conservative assumptions it’s still 350%+. The deposits mostly went into $NOW, $AMBA, and $TRT – TRT ran up big and then round-tripped back near my entry, while NOW and AMBA are still near the prices I bought them. So nearly all the growth traces back to the original account. Posting the honest math, not the flattering headline. More importantly: this was the week I started really brainstorming new trades. Higher-conviction trades from here.

Sold my $PENG calls this morning at a small loss. Actually would have been slightly above breakeven if I held a few more hours. Either way this was a quick experiment with a short-dated momentum strategy I don’t normally run. The plan was always to close it this week regardless of outcome. And the pump didn’t really materialize, so I closed it. Followed my exit plan instead of hoping. Rotating into higher-conviction trades from here.

@aleabitoreddit Forget the contract. The actual catalyst is Serenity posting space again. RKLB and space stocks to the moon confirmed

$RKLB $90M US Space Force contract. Not much revenue, but implication/narratives go brrr with the US space buildup. Fun to see before the SpaceX IPO as well.

@aleabitoreddit Korean market: where your small portfolio has more digits than your phone number

Out of any market I’ve interacted with: The Korean market is the most degen

@aleabitoreddit Certainly! Here is your post, rewritten: ‘Why do various influencers utilize AI to reproduce my legacy content?’ Let me know if you’d like another variation!

Why are there so many influencers just rewriting my old posts with AI? Prompt: "Copy Serenity's old posts... output it re-written" Or even the same thing... just in a different language. IDM too much if you're doing this, but at least have your AI add original takes.

@TradexWhisperer Put into perspective like that, the growth and shift in demand is absolutely crazy.

$MU $DRAM $SNDK Holy Shit 625x More Memory Demand by 2028 vs 2022 That is Dell's CEO projecting memory demand growth His warning: supply takes years to expand. Demand is not slowing.

I've been thinking lately about what comes next. Will likely be closing most if not all my space positions right before the $SPCX IPO. Classic buy the rumor, sell the news. To be specific, I'm talking about my $RDW, $LUNR, and $FLY call options. I'm still extremely bullish for now and expect these stocks to rally significantly over the next few weeks, heading into the IPO. But once that catalyst is over what follows is less clear. Also I intentionally structured most of my space options to expire in July to give the IPO window the exact room needed to play out. I sat down for 15 minutes and just dumped every sector living in my head right now. Not organized, not ranked - raw brainstorm: - Quantum - Semiconductors - Power Grid - Data Centers - Fiber Optics - Drones - Oil - Uranium - Small Modular Reactors - Rare Earths - Peptides - SaaS - Robotics - Genomics - Cybersecurity Right now this is purely the brainstorming phase, and honestly I'm excited to take profit and rotate aggressively into something new. I've been researching many of these topics for months now, but haven't come to a definitive conviction on most yet. But the bar I'm holding myself to is this - with every position I open, I want a very specific reason why I'm buying that stock NOW, the exact catalysts coming up, and a rough target date for when I'd close it. Same way I built the space trades. That discipline matters even more if I keep running options in the SHOOD account, where timing is everything and a thesis without a catalyst is just a guess. Plenty to dig into from here.

@aleabitoreddit Keep these humanoid shower thoughts coming. Starting to give me some interesting new ideas.

Just a shower thought: US Gov/Japan should put Ulvac (6728) on the export control list so they stop shipping to China. That way you can disrupt China's entire humanoid program (since it's "Dual Use Military Applications"). As retaliation over upstream InP/rare earth related export controls. Adding 45% tariffs on sock exports won't do much, but disrupting China's robotics program, sure. Ulvac is Japan's major chokepoint over neodymium magnets. "Ulvac has long manufactured rare-earth magnet vacuum melting furnaces through its Chinese subsidiary". So maybe put that to rest? If they stop shipping, you can break Unitree's and other humanoid mass production supply chains in China. And only if they allow rare earth exports to start flowing again, then exports can continue.

@aleabitoreddit Interesting how often the bottleneck is never where people expect it to be.

Who could have thought China was holding all the cards over humanoid mass production? Really if America sees a future in $TSLA or Figure robotics programs. Maybe it’s time to start pouring more funding sovereign rare earths supply chains. Whatever we’re doing now isnt enough.

@aleabitoreddit Holding $SIVE as my largest position in $IBKR. Didn’t expect Apple to become part of the bull case but here we are.

This is just confirmation on timelines: H2 2026 is the "major redesign of high end Apple Watches" for blood pressure related stuff using TASC photodiodes(2340). This next part is $SIVE likely project with $AAPL: "After this, Apple's next health monitoring capabilities are expected to focus on noninvasive blood-glucose monitoring." So.. the next cyle refresh is likely Sivers for hyper-customized lasers. Maybe H2 2027 or 2028. Still a bit early, but if timeline/implications are in tact, markets might appreciate multi-year revenue visibility with Apple.

@sunxliao Absolutely. Couldn’t agree more.

As $AMPG hits 4 AMERICAN DOLLARS... here are some quick thoughts. I still remember crypto stocks ripping before the spot $BTC Bitcoin $IBIT ETF launch. In the 6 months leading up to the launch in January 2024... $MARA ran from $7 to $34 (over 380%). $RIOT ran from $7 to $18, and $COIN ran from $80 to $260. The miners and exchanges that were going to benefit from the institutional bid rallied long before the ETF actually opened for trading. By the time it launched, most of the easy money was already made. The pattern was simple. Wall Street knew the ETF was coming. I've been saying this for months... $SPCX SpaceX IPO has the exact setup. Every space ETF on Earth is going to have to own it. Every passive index fund tracking the Nasdaq 100 will own it within 15 trading days, under the new fast track rule. Every institutional allocator who wants space exposure is going to want it. When the most important private company on the planet drops onto public markets, every adjacent name in the sector gets repriced relative to it. That repricing does not start on June 12. It starts now. Today is May 19. The IPO is 24 days away. The public space basket is the SpaceX proxy... Until SpaceX is the SpaceX proxy... $ASTS $BKSY $FLY $LUNR $PL $RDW $RKLB $SATL $SIDU $SPIR $UFO $VELO $VOYG Good luck to everyone! NFA!

@ParadisLabs Don’t forget $RDW They’re a confirmed supplier of critical satellite components including antennas, sun sensors, and RF hardware. Plus their Roll-Out Solar Arrays (iROSA) regularly fly into orbit directly aboard SpaceX Falcon 9 missions.

SpaceX $SPCX Supply Chain: Some are confirmed suppliers. Most are strongly inferred from supply chain mapping + vendor marketing since SpaceX keeps its supplier list private. Critical: $STM - RF chips for antennas $LIN / $APD - LOX, helium, hydrogen for Starbase/Cape $SNPS - design compiler for Starlink/terminal ASICs $ATI - titanium plate/sheet, alloys $CRS - specialty steels, Ni-superalloys $VELO - 3D printing for Raptor engine components Outokumpu - 304L variants in 4mm sheet/coil $KEYS - RF/microwave test $ADI - Beamforming front-ends + RF transceivers Filtronic - RF/GaN amplifiers for satelitte connectivity Others: Infineon - power conversion $TXN - Analog + power management semis Innolux (3481): RF chip packaging + display components $MCHP - MCUs Universal Microwave Tech (3491): RF + microwave components + modules for Starlink ecosystem. $BA - solar cells? Tong Hsing Electronics (6271) - ceramic substrates and RF transceiver modules? $LHX - space-qualified comms + radar Chin-Poon Industrial (2355): PCBs + electronics assembly. $HON - pressure sensors + GPS receivers Compeq Manufacturing (2313): PCBs + electronics assembly for LEO satellite bodies + ground stations. $NXPI - networking SOCs $INTC - ground station compute Renesas (TYO:6723) - MCUs + silicon $GLW - glass for terminal optical windows? $MOG.A - thrustor valves + fluid transfer Wistron NeWeb (6285): manufacturer of Starlink user terminals, dish antennas + ground-station hardware. $CW - pressure transducers / motion control $KRMN - separation systems? Acerinox - 304L too via subsidiary North American Stainless? $HWM - structural fasteners Toray Industries (3402) / $HXL - Carbon-fiber prepreg $CMI / $GRNC - backup power? $EQIX - colocation for Starlink peering? $ANET - data-center switching (likely in Starlink IXP/PoP backbone?) Panasonic (6752) - Li-ion cells e.g. $TSLA? $PH - hydraulics + fluid systems? Need to research each independently + actually check if they make up a significant portion of the SpaceX BOM. There's loads of other names that could be assumed, but less sure on those.

Adding a screenshot of $HIMS price this morning for reference. Now at $22.53. Can’t wait to look back on this post later.

c:9 Raising $HIMS to my highest conviction ever. I believe $HIMS is at or near its bottom. I had this same feeling when I posted that $RDW was at or near its bottom at $9.28. I was right within roughly a week. I’m making the same call now. This morning feels like maximum FUD. In the span of a week: – Mixed Q1 earnings with a headline EPS miss – $300M convertible notes offering announced – Offering upsized to $350M the next day – Bank of America cut their price target from $30 to $28 – Stock down 27% in a month The severity of every single one of these events is being exaggerated. The earnings miss was driven by ~$33M in one-time restructuring charges from shutting down the compounded GLP-1 supply chain. Non-recurring. Forward guidance was actually raised to $2.8B-$3.0B. Q2 guidance of $680-700M is a massive sequential jump from Q1. The convertible notes are 0% interest with a capped call price of $50.15. That means shareholders only see dilution if the stock is above $50.15 by June 2032. That’s a +120% move from here. This is essentially free financing. The short-term price drop is from delta hedging by institutional note buyers – a technical event, not a fundamental one. And the biggest catalyst is still ahead. FDA Commissioner Makary is out. His replacement Diamantas was elevated by RFK and already signaled openness to peptides. The FDA advisory panel on peptides is July 23-24. The regulatory backdrop just shifted meaningfully in HIMS’s favor. The market is pricing in fear. I’m pricing in what comes next. Subscribers growing. Forward guidance raised. Free financing secured. FDA catalyst approaching with a more favorable commissioner. This is the setup. As I’ve mentioned before, if we don’t see a severe re-rating leading into the FDA advisory meeting I’ll be increasing my position substantially.

Absolute insane call option activity this morning as well. In case any more proof is needed.

c:6.5 Down 50%. CEO buying millions in stock. The president announced just last week that he owns it. $NOW is clearly having a breakout. Full thesis. I’ve been watching ServiceNow for months. I was almost ready to jump in when it was in the low 90s but hesitated. Then last week Trump’s OGE disclosure revealed a $1-5M position in $NOW alongside $ORCL, $ADBE, and $WDAY. It immediately jumped out at me because it was already on my radar. Yesterday $1.6M in unusual call activity hit the tape. That plus the breakout got me over the edge. I’m no stranger to SaaS. I used to hold a lot of $PATH and I’ve been eyeing a re-entry there this week ahead of earnings. But $NOW is the one that stood out when I dug deeper into the sector. The entire space has been crushed on fears that AI will replace traditional software subscriptions. ServiceNow is down over 50% from its highs. The sentiment has been brutal. That’s exactly when I started paying attention and here’s what I found. ServiceNow is the workflow automation backbone of enterprise IT. Every major company runs internal processes through their platform – IT tickets, HR onboarding, security operations, customer service. They call themselves the “AI Control Tower” and they’re positioning to orchestrate AI agents across the enterprise rather than be replaced by them. The financials are strong. $13.3B revenue in 2025, growing 21% YoY. 81.5% gross margins. 35% free cash flow margins, generating $4.6B in cash annually. Profitable. Raised full year 2026 subscription revenue guidance to $15.74-$15.78B. Q1 2026 beat on every metric. 16 deals over $5M in new annual contract value, up 80% YoY. AI product revenue on track to hit $1.5B in 2026, up from an initial $1B target. They raised guidance by $205M at the midpoint. The government AI tailwind is real. ServiceNow signed the “OneGov” deal with GSA to drive federal AI adoption. FedRAMP authorized. The DOGE modernization agenda directly benefits their platform. McDermott said publicly: “When President Trump says the federal government needs to operate like a best-run business, he means it.” The valuation doesn’t make sense at these levels. ~7.4x P/S on a company growing 21% with 35% FCF margins. A year ago this traded at 15x P/S. Among SaaS companies I compared, NOW has the best combination of growth, margins, and valuation. The Iran conflict caused a 75bps headwind on Q1 deals from delayed Middle East closings. If that resolves, it removes a drag on growth. Q2 earnings July 29 is the next major catalyst. $120 call 10/16 at $10.30. Breakeven $130.10. Gives me runway through Q2 earnings and into the back half of the year.

@JohnLoc18 We are so back.

$2k account doubled

@bubbleboi Old news. Back to green we go.

*taps sign* x.com/bubbleboi/stat…

Renaissance Technologies filed their Q1 2026 13F on May 14. Space showed up in their filing. New $40-58M position in $LUNR. 13x’d their $RDW position. For anyone unfamiliar, RenTec is arguably the most successful hedge fund in history. Founded by Jim Simons. Their Medallion Fund returned ~66% annually for over 30 years. They don’t trade on narratives. They trade on data. Here’s what they did in Q1: $LUNR – brand new position. 1,934,000 shares. They held zero shares last quarter. A fresh entry from scratch. $RDW – aggressively increased their existing position by 1,301%. Went from 23,500 shares to 329,300 shares. When the most data-driven fund on the planet opens a new position in one of your stocks and 13x’s another – you pay attention. I’ve been in both names for weeks. Called $RDW near its bottom at $9.28. Re-entered $LUNR after taking profits on a 380% trade. The thesis hasn’t changed. SpaceX S-1 expected any day now, sector momentum building. Nice to have RenTec on the same side.