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Sebastian Furn
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Sebastian Furn
@SebastianFurn
Obsessed with the BTC treasury space. 185 companies tracked across 33 countries. | @Halvex1
Entrou em Ocak 2024
424 Seguindo981 Seguidores
@RichardByworth @btcjvs Saylor came up with the 1.22x mNAV in the latest earnings call by using fully diluted mNAV.
Today the fully diluted mNAV is 0.90x.
So it was dilutive.
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@btcjvs Definitely do not agree. As long as mNAV is above one he must keep diluting the common. As he has done here he increases the collateral base for the pref as well as accretes more btc per share.
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The June 1 to June 8 update was a dilutive week for Strategy.
This is one of five BTC Yield declines greater than 0.1% since the company started reporting in 2024.
mNAV is now at 1.22x.......
The company should have sold BTC and not diluted the common shareholder.
Michael Saylor@saylor
Strategy has acquired 1,550 BTC for $101 million to increase our $BTC Reserve to ₿845,256. We have also increased our USD Reserve by $100 million to $1.0 billion. $MSTR $STRC strategy.com/press/strategy…
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@chcbearsfan Makes a lot of sense. A treasury with high amplification and Bitcoin leverage will naturally have higher "claim %"
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Housekeeping: I've renamed a metric
"Drag" is now "Senior Claims %" (Claims % for short)
The number never changed. It's still net senior claims over total BTC. But "drag" implied a feeling and a direction the metric was never meant to carry
It's just the share of the stack that sits ahead of common equity. So it should say that
When the term is the problem, fix the term
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$ASST just bought 2,500 BTC last week. That's a 15% BTC Yield in one week.
Halvex@Halvex1
$ASST bought 2,500 BTC. Holdings: 19,000 BTC.
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$MSTR sold Bitcoin for the first time since 2022. A new era of net-positive accumulation.
Halvex@Halvex1
$MSTR sold 32 BTC. Holdings: 843,706 BTC.
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@PunterJeff Absolutely. The most valuable product for investors is maximum Bitcoin exposure risk-adjusted. Not just the minimum risk.
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We are not trying to optimize away every last basis point of risk.
There is a meaningful difference between reducing the probability of failure from 10% to 1% and reducing it from 0.02% to 0.01%.
The latter may technically cut risk in half, but from an expected value perspective it is immaterial if the tradeoff is materially lower upside.
$ASST $SATA
Matt Cole@ColeMacro
I agree. We spend a tremendous amount of time thinking about downside risk, stress testing scenarios, and building protections accordingly. In our view, $ASST is not over-amplified. If anything, we believe it remains under-amplified relative to the opportunity set Bitcoin presents. It’s important to understand that risk management is a constraint, not the objective. The goal for Strive’s common equity, $ASST, is to outperform Bitcoin and maximize long-term shareholder returns. Importantly, we are not trying to optimize away every last basis point of risk. There is a meaningful difference between reducing the probability of failure from 10% to 1% and reducing it from 0.02% to 0.01%. The latter may technically cut risk in half, but from an expected value perspective it is immaterial if the tradeoff is materially lower upside. This philosophy informs every major capital allocation decision we make. We start by protecting against outcomes that could permanently impair shareholder value. Once that threshold has been met, our focus shifts to maximizing expected value. In our view, risk is not measured solely by the probability of loss. It is also measured by the opportunity cost of failing to fully participate in a highly asymmetric outcome. That is why we intentionally have no debt, maintain substantial dividend reserves, and run amplification aggressively. We seek to eliminate risks that could permanently impair shareholder value so that we can maximize amplified participation in Bitcoin’s upside. We believe Bitcoin’s return distribution will continue to be highly asymmetric to the upside. If there is a meaningful probability that Bitcoin compounds dramatically over the coming decades, the optimal capital structure is not the one that sacrifices substantial upside to marginally improve an already remote downside outcome. It is the one that preserves resilience while maximizing participation in that upside. This is also why we are focused on acquiring as much Bitcoin as we can while it remains below $100,000. We believe Bitcoin is likely to be substantially higher over time and that periods where Bitcoin trades near its 200-week moving average are precisely when amplification should be run as aggressively as prudently possible. We think in probabilities, expected values, and equity compounding. If you optimize around fixed income math, you should expect fixed income returns. We built the company we personally wanted to own: an engine designed to maximize Bitcoin per share growth, outperform Bitcoin, and maximize shareholder value across a wide range of bullish Bitcoin outcomes.
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@ColeMacro Completely aligned with this thesis. Everything should be viewed through risk-return💯
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I agree.
We spend a tremendous amount of time thinking about downside risk, stress testing scenarios, and building protections accordingly. In our view, $ASST is not over-amplified. If anything, we believe it remains under-amplified relative to the opportunity set Bitcoin presents.
It’s important to understand that risk management is a constraint, not the objective.
The goal for Strive’s common equity, $ASST, is to outperform Bitcoin and maximize long-term shareholder returns.
Importantly, we are not trying to optimize away every last basis point of risk. There is a meaningful difference between reducing the probability of failure from 10% to 1% and reducing it from 0.02% to 0.01%. The latter may technically cut risk in half, but from an expected value perspective it is immaterial if the tradeoff is materially lower upside.
This philosophy informs every major capital allocation decision we make. We start by protecting against outcomes that could permanently impair shareholder value. Once that threshold has been met, our focus shifts to maximizing expected value.
In our view, risk is not measured solely by the probability of loss. It is also measured by the opportunity cost of failing to fully participate in a highly asymmetric outcome.
That is why we intentionally have no debt, maintain substantial dividend reserves, and run amplification aggressively. We seek to eliminate risks that could permanently impair shareholder value so that we can maximize amplified participation in Bitcoin’s upside.
We believe Bitcoin’s return distribution will continue to be highly asymmetric to the upside. If there is a meaningful probability that Bitcoin compounds dramatically over the coming decades, the optimal capital structure is not the one that sacrifices substantial upside to marginally improve an already remote downside outcome. It is the one that preserves resilience while maximizing participation in that upside.
This is also why we are focused on acquiring as much Bitcoin as we can while it remains below $100,000. We believe Bitcoin is likely to be substantially higher over time and that periods where Bitcoin trades near its 200-week moving average are precisely when amplification should be run as aggressively as prudently possible.
We think in probabilities, expected values, and equity compounding. If you optimize around fixed income math, you should expect fixed income returns.
We built the company we personally wanted to own: an engine designed to maximize Bitcoin per share growth, outperform Bitcoin, and maximize shareholder value across a wide range of bullish Bitcoin outcomes.
BTC Optioneer@BTCoptioneer
$ASST can pay $SATA dividends for 9 years even if Bitcoin depreciates 10%/year. So, no. $ASST is not overleveraged.
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It also takes into account fiat reserves, that's why.
I guess your point is that Strive will issue so much that they achieve a 1.1x BTC Rating? That means they will buy ~100k BTC at these Bitcoin price levels.
They will never reach a 1.1x BTC Rating anytime soon, maybe as the volatility of Bitcoin goes down.
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@SebastianFurn @ZynxBTC It look like rounded up.
Its x2.09
Just divide BTC holdings by notional value.
Again... tell me you will buy x1.1 BTC Rating???
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@btc_overflow The dividend capture trades are both buyers and sellers so there is no net-new demand.
The demand leading up to the dividend might decrease, but it will also dampen the selling after the dividend date. The overall volatility should reduce.
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This is the tail risk, and why it isn't a foregone conclusion that more frequent dividends are necessarily better.
That said, I do anticipate higher dividend frequency making $STRC and $SATA stickier with the right kind of capital.
Jesse@_JesseMK
Much of the $STRC and $SATA market appears to be dividend capture traders. As div frequency goes up, the trade becomes less lucrative. That demand disappears. Rates will go up.
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Indonesia
@SebastianFurn @ZynxBTC Would you buy credit instrument having x1.1 BTC Rating?
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@StrategyMaxi @ZynxBTC Paying 13% interest on an asset with 30% CAGR is risky🤔
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@ZynxBTC SATA will start cutting rates around summer.
They don't have enough BTC holdings to sustain their credit without taking too much risk to be under covered
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$SQNS is slowly unwinding its Bitcoin position.
Their Bitcoin holdings are down 80% since September 2025.
Their $189M convertible bond is fully paid off. But it didn't mature until 2028.
Instead of waiting it out, they became forced sellers at the worst possible moment.
Halvex@Halvex1
$SQNS sold 456 BTC. Holdings: 658 BTC.
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@ZynxBTC Definitely the most interesting opportunity right now.
Their fully diluted mNAV 1.48x which is relatively high compared to the other treasuries.
But I do think SATA will make up for it big time.
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We need to talk about $ASST.
Last week they were able to increase their Bitcoin stack by 7.2% by raising $91.7 million.
This week looks to be even better with their preferred equity $SATA running riot.
A company with a $1.35 billion market cap is about to raise $100 million in a single week.
This is not normal and quite simply incredible.
The NAV is growing by 5-10% every week and I see no reason for this to stop anytime soon.
All of this is happening in a Bitcoin bear market... What happens in a bull?
This is the best small market cap opportunity in America.
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@JustinWelter @ZynxBTC The warrants will dilute shareholders by 35% once they are exercised at their $27 strike. halvex.xyz/instrument/war…
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I am very confident that $ASST is the best small cap opportunity in America today.
It has built an incredibly well oiled machine that allows them to accumulate Bitcoin every single week while maintaining a pristine balance sheet.
Up 10.70% YTD while Bitcoin is down 12.23%.
Market cap today: $1.45 billion. Market cap in 5 years: $100 billion.
That is the bet.
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BTC treasury $BTM is facing bankruptcy.
Their operating business of Bitcoin ATMs has been running with a huge loss. This is why it's essential to look at the operating businesses of the smaller treasuries.
Halvex@Halvex1
$BTM Nasdaq to suspend trading May 26 and file Form 25-NSE.
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@EL92940216 You want to have maximum leverage on the BTC.
If BTC goes up 30% per year, it won't matter whether you pay 11.5% or 13% in interest.
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The higher BTC exposure wins. Whether you borrow at 13% or 11.5% won't matter.
It's all about how much you can borrow.
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@SebastianFurn My point is Strategy have ability to raise more money than all competitors that surpass relativity.
$MSTR > $ASST in performance. You will see and I will be here to say told ya...
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