TKX CAPITAL

Merkle3s Weekly Recap: Capital Rotates from Risk Assets to Gold as Crypto Narratives Shift 1️⃣ Macro: Iran War Rewrites Global Asset Pricing ➡️ Since Iran conflict escalation: fuel +78%, natural gas +72%, US equities -7.4% — Deutsche Bank says "bottom is far from here." Korean equities enter technical bear market (-20% from Feb highs) ➡️ Global central banks dumped $82B in US Treasuries in one month, Middle East oil producers selling bonds for cash — largest monthly sell-off in years ➡️ Yen breaks 160, Japan's Finance Ministry labels it "speculative," signals "all-out" intervention readiness; BOJ holds at 0.75% but hints at future hikes ➡️ Gold at $4,506/oz, Goldman Sachs doubles down after 13% pullback: central banks buying 60 tonnes/month, year-end target $5,400; 68% of central banks plan to increase gold holdings 2️⃣ AI/Tech: Dev Tool Wars Enter the "Ad Invasion" Era ➡️ #GitHub Copilot auto-injected promotional copy into PR descriptions, 1.5M+ PRs affected, Reddit exploded → GitHub shut it down within hours. Developer trust is being monetized by Microsoft ➡️ Ollama 0.19 ships MLX build for Apple Silicon, Qwen3.5-35B decode hits 112 t/s (vs 58 t/s prior) — local inference performance doubles. #AI localization accelerates ➡️ Google open-sources TimesFM, a 200M-parameter time-series foundation model with 16k context — new tool for financial/energy forecasting ➡️ Apple AI for China launched then immediately pulled back, Apple says "actively advancing China rollout" — regulatory chess match continues 3️⃣ Capital: Risk-Off Rotation vs Structural Inflows ➡️ Korea approves $17.1B emergency budget for Middle East energy shock, PM Lee says it "keeps me up at night"; fiscal expansion signals intensifying globally ➡️ Goldman raises gold year-end target to $5,400 (+20%), WGC forecasts ~850 tonnes central bank purchases in 2026, private sector follows central bank accumulation ➡️ Aluminum up ~10% intramonth, biggest monthly gain in nearly two years — Iran war disrupts supply chains, industrial metals become next pricing focus ➡️ China MIIT data: Jan-Feb software revenue +11.7% YoY — tech infrastructure investment expanding against the tide 4️⃣ Crypto: BTC Geopolitical Resilience + Narrative Rotation ➡️ #BTC ~$67,300, range-bound $66k-$68.5k, Fear & Greed at 27 (extreme fear), but BTC dominance holds 58% — capital didn't flee crypto, it concentrated into BTC ➡️ #Bittensor ecosystem token #SN3 achieves 72B-parameter decentralized LLM training, boosted by Jensen Huang podcast mention — SN3 surge lifts entire $TAO ecosystem, decentralized AI training narrative repriced ➡️ World Cup approaching, fan token sector ignites: #Chiliz $CHZ +15.2%, SANTOS +13.3%, ASR +8.45% — event cycle + engagement platform effect ➡️ #SpaceX historically largest IPO expected to file in June, shadow stock #VCX pumped 10x in a week then crashed 70% after Citron Research publicly shorted it — textbook bubble case

Merkle3s Weekly Snapshot 📊 3/4 1️⃣ Core Tension: Disorderly Volatility Under Geopolitical Shock ➡️ The U.S. strike on Iran triggered a classic “panic sell-off → event confirmation rebound” rollercoaster across risk assets ➡️ BTC initially dropped sharply, then staged a rapid V-shaped recovery once the news settled ➡️ BTC likely needs more time consolidating in the lower range to allow large capital to accumulate 2️⃣ Capital Structure: Sentiment Rotation, Not Trend Repair ➡️ The recent rebound reflects position adjustments and short-term trading rather than a true return of risk appetite ➡️ Volatility remains heavily event-driven, with macro direction still unclear ➡️ The market continues to swing between fear and relief, but lacks sustained buying pressure 3️⃣ Crypto Internal Structure: AI Trading Narrative vs BNB Cooling ➡️ On #Base, DX Terminal ignited the “AI Agent automated trading” narrative, with related token $Poopcoin raising over 10,000 ETH in presale ➡️ BNB sentiment continues to weaken; CZ’s new book Freedom of Money failed to trigger the expected community hype, leading to quick pullbacks in related tokens 4️⃣ Cycle Positioning ➡️ The market is currently in a phase of “high volatility + low certainty,” rather than trend expansion ➡️ Localized narratives can still create bursts of momentum, but macro uncertainty limits sustained capital inflows ➡️ Structural repair will require time, not a single headline-driven catalyst

I am never more bullish on Ethereum than now! #Ethereum $ETH

Global Uncertainty Hits Record High: The World Uncertainty Index reached 106,862 in February, surpassing levels from COVID, the 2008 crash, and 9/11, driven by geoeconomic confrontations. Market Impact: Erodes investor confidence, likely leading to defensive positioning in stocks (e.g., value over growth) and crypto pullbacks.

Sandisk $SNDK's guidance for the next quarter is Non-GAAP EPS of $12.00 to $14.00 (~ QoQ +110%), revenue QoQ +59%, gross margin rising to 66%. Given the market's recent ongoing price increases, it's estimated to beat consensus. $WDC Western Digital's "bulk" Sandisk shares to institutions at prices of $535-$555 is great joy for everyone. What is the target price of the institutions that took the shares?! Currently, most major banks' analysts' target prices are $690-$1,000. Estimated that if there are no surprises, after the new quarter, they would likely raise EPS forecasts and valuation multiples. Not investment advice, DYOR.

Thinking about Circle's moat, starting from Libra and Tether. Circle is a wild horse, a big shot. After its listing, one of my fren started shorting it at around $170 because he thought it was severely detached from actual value. As a result, it rose to $299, and finally dropped back down. He sold it off and made a small profit. Its price is influenced by four factors: 1. The heat of cryptocurrencies, 2. Policy influences, 3. Fed interest rates, 4. Scale. The first two are "emotional," while the latter two are mid-to-long-term outcomes. After chatting with two super OG big shots, they don't recognize $CRCL's moat at all. They think that Meta, Google, or even Musk could issue stablecoins in the future. One super big shot asked me, "Do you still remember Facebook's Libra?!" Later, the team came out and created projects like Aptos. Tether's recognition is far higher than USDC's, and it's also challenging the position of its "compliant big brother." Masayoshi Son and Cathie Wood both like Circle. The facts may differ from how Wall Street interprets their narratives, but if the two align, that stock will soar. Fundamentals + narrative, with numbers and storytellers—the herding dog will lead the flock in a mad dash! Is this the situation now?

After WDC Selling off USD3Bln Sandisk shares at $535 - $555 per share, is it good time to buy SNDK?

Which prediction of the timeline for achieving Artificial General Intelligence ("AGI") do you agree with?

为一家美国加密货币巨头商业伙伴拍摄视频。分享观点和感受！团结就是力量！ 亚太地区是全球增长最快的加密货币市场之一！ Filming for a U.S. crypto giant business partner. Share views and feelings! Together we are stronger! Asia Pacific is one of the fastest-growing crypto markets in the world!

比特币，他总会回来的！ 2026年，系好安全带，享受这段旅程！ 希望大家都能安然度过这crypto寒冬，我2016年进入这行业，现在经历第三个周期，比特币对比其他传统资产，他是较为新、小，他虽然有“价值存储”功能， 但他却是归类于“风险资产”，唯一能决定他价值的是“流动性”，机构进场后，更复杂了，有不同的杠杆产品放大影响。 其实每样资产，都是有他底层逻辑，比特币最重要的是唯一大众接受的去中心化资产，当时我在OKX时，大家开个玩笑说，核弹也消灭不了比特币。 段永平经常说一个投资的标的，主要看两样，一是生意模型，二是文化，比特币是唯一大众接受限量2千1百万枚去中心化proxy资产，是一种宗教、faith。 很多好的公司如特斯拉，看数据，不少人觉得贵，但大家相信马斯克，他能创造奇迹，的却波动大，但每每创造惊喜（当然也有惊讶），正如比特币，他从没让我失望过，他总会回来的。 感恩，即使身为一个古板的专业人士CPA，大公司CFO的我，有了这信仰，他成就了我，相信他能成就更多的人，也看到了新生代的未来机遇。 另外，2028年的减半周期，还有两年零3个多月，链上资产RWA 猛增， 稳定币规模至2030年CAGR保守估计40%以上。 今年，市场波动会很大，不限于数字货币，还有股票、黄金，但不变的是政府不断滥印的钞票，比特币、黄金、白银才是Peoples' Money 人民的钱！ 兄弟、姐妹们，have faith！Fastern the seat belt and Enjoy the ride! 系好安全带，享受这段旅程！ 前提是低杠杆，甚至不用任何杠杆！ 祝愿你和你的家人，健康、平安！ Chris Lee

Merkle3s Weekly Snapshot 📊 02/04 1️⃣ Macro & Risk Appetite ➡️ From US government shutdown risk to the Fed nomination narrative, #BTC took two consecutive hits: first a fear-driven selloff, then a second wave of pressure as the Fed nomination story got amplified ➡️ Precious metals also saw an unusual two-way move: a fear-led spike followed by a sharp pullback under the “stronger USD” narrative ➡️ A rebound in inflation data remains a potential time bomb, with some views suggesting deeper downside or a longer consolidation ahead 2️⃣ Flows & ETF Direction ➡️ After the panic flush, $BTC saw a round of inflows, while $ETH continued to see outflows ➡️ Flow structure looks like “de-risk first, then re-allocate,” with near-term positioning staying defensive rather than fully risk-on 3️⃣ On-chain Hotspots & Narrative Rotation ➡️ On-chain capital rotated noticeably: as the CZ vs OKX dispute escalated, #BNB and Chinese #Meme momentum cooled across the board ➡️ #Base absorbed part of the #BNB spillover, mainly into the #AI narrative around #ClawdBot/#MoltBot/#OpenClaw, also lifting older AI token $CLANKER on the back of renewed attention 4️⃣ OpenClaw: Short-lived Hype & Reversal ➡️ OpenClaw’s agent-only forum #Moltbook saw a hype wave, pushing $MOLT past a $100M market cap ➡️ A broader market dump quickly reversed the move; combined with Moltbook downtime and reports of spam-filled content, negative sentiment and trust discount intensified

🚨 U.S. crypto regulation just hit a real milestone — but CLARITY is NOT law (yet). The Senate Agriculture Committee just advanced its draft of the Digital Asset Market Structure framework by a 12–11 party-line vote 🏛️ This is the furthest crypto market structure legislation has ever gone in the U.S. Senate — but let’s be very clear about what this does (and does not) mean. ❌ This does NOT mean the CLARITY Act passed ❌ This does NOT mean the bill is heading to the President ✅ It means one Senate committee version is now officially in play 🧩 What exactly passed? • The Agriculture Committee’s portion of a CLARITY-style framework • Focused on defining “digital commodities” • Assigning crypto spot market oversight to the CFTC 📊 • Leaving securities-related assets with the SEC Think of this as the CFTC half of CLARITY, not the full package. 🛑 Why the party-line vote matters Earlier drafts were bipartisan. Democrats say Republicans walked away from the joint November framework after recess. At markup, Democratic amendments failed on: • Ethics rules for senior officials ⚖️ • Consumer & bankruptcy protections 🧾 • Fraud safeguards 🚨 Result: 0 Democratic votes in favor. ➡️ What happens NEXT: 📌 Step 1: Formal reporting • The bill is formally reported out of the Agriculture Committee • Placed on the Senate calendar 📅 📌 Step 2: Senate Banking Committee (the real gatekeeper) The bill CANNOT reach the Senate floor without Banking Committee approval. Banking is handling: • Stablecoin yield 💵 • Tokenization 🧬 • SEC vs CFTC boundaries • Wall Street lobbying pressure 🏦 • Ethics & conflicts of interest No Banking approval = process stops here ❌ 📌 Step 3: Merge the Senate texts If Banking advances its version: • Agriculture + Banking drafts are merged • Manager’s amendments can reopen negotiations 🔄 • This is the last real chance to pull Democrats back in 📌 Step 4: Senate floor vote • Potential amendments • Filibuster risk ⚠️ • 60 votes needed for cloture • Only then a simple majority vote Without bipartisan support, the bill dies here. 📌 Step 5: Back to the House Yes — even though the House already passed CLARITY before: • Any new Senate version must go back to the House 🏛️ • The House votes again on the final unified text • Only after BOTH chambers approve can it move forward 📌 Step 6: President • Final bill goes to the President’s desk 🇺🇸✍️ • Signature = law 🔍 Bottom line This vote does not mean CLARITY passed. It means crypto market structure has officially entered the Senate’s legislative machinery.