John. ✪

When you hold puts too long after a Trump tariff threat 😆

$SPY I hope it’s becoming clearer to you now why I don’t want to short the 659 rejection and that I’d rather wait for at least 669 instead. Although price rejected yesterday, it’s forming a higher low support around 648-649, we can also see a bull flag and an inverse head and shoulders on the 4H and 1H. if the 648 support holds, it’ll bring us back into the 660s, at least. I’m not buying calls though, because that support can fail and we retest 644-641. It’s really 50/50, a lottery ticket, no edge. If you’re short here, you can get a $10 drop, but a squeeze risk is very high too. Trading mid range like this is for gamblers in my opinion. Not my cup of tea.

This was in the DMR (Daily Market Roadmap) this morning. SPY has gone red to green to red 5 times today. Sideways choppy price action. Also, price vaulted 35 handles over the hour post the S&P Flash releases at 9:45am: 🔽

“He who has a ‘why’ to live can bear almost anyhow ‘how’.”— Victor Frankl

On Sunday night, March 8th $SPY dipped to $656.8 on the heels of the Straight of Hormuz closing. I wrote on X and in the first renditions of the DMR that it would likely be re-tested during the cash session in March (in ten days or so). It was reached on day 11, March 19th when $SPY tagged $655.17 intraday during the cash session. Yesterday it tagged $641 & $666.8 during the pre-market pop after Trump’s 7:05am eastern tweet about the Iran war. These prices (high & low) were not reached in the cash session. I expect both of these levels to be re-tested in the cash session in ten days or so. This is based on historical probabilities & not a claim they will happen for certain. For cash close lows the retest often comes much later (weeks to months). Pre-market highs & lows tend to (not always) retest much sooner than cash close lows & highs.

Hello, S&P Flash Services fell from 51.7 to 51.1 but manufacturing rose to 52.4 from 51.6. This gave a 12 handle move for SPX before it dropped back down (see below). As I wrote about in the DMR today for paid subscribers the Flash Services & Manufacturing PMI is a stealth release that often catches many off guard. Today was not a large deviation from expectations therefore the initial pop got sold.

I as posted yesterday. The bounce looked pathetic. VIX stayed too elevated by the close. Credit spreads aren’t tightening either. Flash services & manufacturing PMI could flip it around or send it more down at 9:45 am est. so I’ll be watching those releases. 💯

Good morning! Welcome to a new day 🍀. These guys are back at it again. 🤣

That’s odd timing … 🛢️

Everyone on here trying to figure out the next move. Well I have news for you - there is no figuring it out. These kind of moves are perfectly normal in a volatility environment such as this. It’s a news-driven market. Take the profits when you get them in either direction. Don’t get married to one side.

Trading will expose every weakness you have. Impatience. Greed. Fear. Ego. The strategy is the easy part. The mental game is where most people quit. If you are thinking about quitting - PLEASE DM me. I'm one of those people that ACTUALLY want to help as many people as possible

The Zombie Apocalypse occurred at Ruby Tuesday 🤣.

Until $SPY can close above the 5, 10 & 20 DMA, & the 8 EMA it's just a dead cat. (I do prefer cats alive!) 🤣 Today was not that bullish at all from a technical perspective but if you swung calls Friday it was 💰!

Shocking. 5 minutes before. Of course nobody knew … of course 🫣

Someone loaded $655k worth of 1dte puts that were 2% OTM not 15 minutes before the headlines that dumped the rally broke on the wires. You can't make up this unbelievable level of insider trading.

If you’re considering launching a paid sub service on X keep in mind the fees you have to pay aside from the fees to X & state / local taxes. 30% to Apple & 15% to Google if folks use those platforms to subscribe vs using a web link. Apple takes the biggest bite. 🍎💯

Our long-term signal flipped red on Friday, March 20th. First time since March 7, 2025. Core equity models are sitting 40-51% in short-term T-bills.

When in doubt-stay out.

This 🔽🔽🔽

I shared this message below to paid subscribers on X & Substack today. It bears repeating again & again. 🔽 --------------- Hello, I know of two professional traders with 8-9 figure accounts & they haven’t taken a single trade in a MONTH. They are sitting in cash waiting for the right move. Imagine yolo’ing puts on Friday (or taking a large SPY / SPX put position). Did we know Trump would reverse the futures 200 handles in 5 minutes this morning? I certainly didn’t know. Those folks got obliterated. The key discipline you have to MASTER to be a consistently profitable trader is doing nothing when the setups are too risky (aside from quick scalps). One DM I received Sunday night a person blew up their account on Friday AFTER reading the DMR where I advised NOT TO TRADE triple witch. Sure, some get lucky with a bet. But try doing that for 5, 10, 15 or 20+ years & see how it pans out. Statistical data shows most traders walk away broke. I don’t want that to happen to a SINGLE one of you. Sincerely, John