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TRUMP EYES IRAN OIL POWER PLAY
Donald Trump is considering a bold idea: seizing Iran’s oil to boost U.S. energy dominance and gain leverage over China.
He openly suggested the move, arguing the U.S. could profit and strengthen its global position—though he acknowledged Americans are wary of deeper involvement in the Middle East.
The strategy reflects Trump’s belief that controlling oil equals geopolitical power. His thinking is that limiting Iran’s exports—especially to China—could weaken Beijing’s position in trade and supply chains.
But the plan faces major obstacles. Taking control of Iran’s energy sector would require significant military commitment, raise legal concerns, and likely face public opposition at home.
Meanwhile, China may be less vulnerable than expected. It has built reserves, expanded domestic energy production, and invested heavily in renewables, giving it resilience against supply shocks.
For now, no formal plan exists. Trump’s idea remains speculative—part strategy, part signal—as tensions, oil prices, and global power dynamics continue to shift.
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Salahnya Purbaya itu dia pake uang BI dialirkan ke bank tapi ga punya kuasa nurunin bunga bank. Akhirnya ya ekonomi ga kemana-mana karena masyarakat tetap takut buat minjam duitnya. Takut sama bunganya..
tirtoid@TirtoID
Purbaya: Uang Pemerintah di BI Tersisa Rp120 Triliun tirto.id/purbaya-uang-p…
Indonesia
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Menteri Luar Negeri Singapura, Vivian Balakrishnan, berusaha jujur kepada warganya dengan memperingatkan dampak ekonomi dari perang di Iran masih bisa lebih buruk dari saat ini. Menurutnya, sekarang bahkan risiko pasar saham dan komoditas belum sepenuhnya memperhitungkan kemungkinan terburuk.
Pemerintah di berbagai negara mulai memperingatkan kondisi ke depan akan semakin menantang, seiring kenaikan biaya impor energi yang berpotensi mendorong inflasi dan menekan pertumbuhan ekonomi, karena perang dan penutupan Selat Hormuz yang mengganggu alur distribusi minyak dan gas.
Singapura termasuk negara yang sangat rentan terhadap kondisi ini karena hampir seluruh kebutuhan energinya berasal dari impor dan lebih dari 90 persen listriknya bergantung pada gas alam.
"Kami berusaha jujur kepada masyarakat bahwa situasi ini serius dan bisa memburuk. Kita semua perlu memasang sabuk pengaman," katanya dalam sebelum wawancara di Bloomberg Television, Selasa (7/4).
📸: Dok. Antara Foto.
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Indonesia
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IHSG udah turun -24%
Mau lebih dalam lagi kah?

talon@TalonXBT
“Energy Shock” Ini bisa jadi Alasan untuk Lockdown, bukan soal Virus tapi Krisis Bahan Bakar di beberapa Negara sudah terpengaruh Filipina, Malaysia dan Vietnam. dampak nya akan banyak pekerja yang akan disuruh WFH. Ini gara-gara Perang di Timur Tengah yang belum kian mereda, Negoisasi Gencatan Senjata kemarin aja gagal jadi bisa di perkirakan ini akan Panjang jadi mulai lah menghemat dan jangan boros ya di situasi begini. Cash is King
Indonesia
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Ada idiom Inggris, "the shoes are too big for him". Saya ingin menggantinya menjadi "peci itu terlalu besar untuk Menlu Sugiono @Kemlu_RI". Makna harfia/literal atau makna simbolik. Bibir peci terlalu dekat dengan alis. Mungkin beliau perlu mengecilkan ukuran peci satu nomer. Atau setidaknya setengah nomer. Biar enak dilihat.
Secara simbolik. Peci menlu emang kebesaran untuk Pak Sugiono. Bukan karena beliau orang yang tidak intelek atau orang jahat. Saya yakin Pak Sugiono ini orang sangat pinter dan orang baik. Tapi pengalaman dan karirnya selama ini bukan untuk posisi diplomasi level tertinggi.
Pak Sugiono lama menjadi sekretaris pribadi Pak Prabowo. Banyak posisi yang cocok baginya di pemerintahan. Tapi bukan Menlu. Beberapa kali kita lihat gestur canggungnya. Bahkan ada menteri Perancis yang hampir skip bersalaman dengan dia. Untung ada yang mengingatkan, ini ada Pak Menlu.
Menlu itu posisi yang butuh gestur, pengetahuan dan jaringan Internasional yang sudah dimiliki sekian lama. Pak Sugiono ga punya 1000 jam terbang di sana. Seribu jam terbang ini istilah yang saya ambil dari buku Outliers. Kita butuh sebanyak itu untuk top expert di suatu bidang.
Pak Sugiono tak punya itu untuk Menlu. Tapi mungkin bisa untuk menjadi Mensesneg, Seskab atau fungsi koordinasi pemerintah lain.
Jadi. Sebaiknya Pak Sugiono memang harus ganti peci. Harfiah atau Simbolik.
*Pak Yusril yang paling pas ukuran dan cara pemakaian pecinya. Lagi-lagi, harfiah dan simbolik.


Indonesia
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Citrini Research sent an analyst to Oman with $15,000 in cash, recording sunglasses, a smuggled camera, and Cuban cigars for networking. The analyst signed a pledge to Omani authorities not to gather intelligence, then got on a boat and sailed to within 18 miles of the Iranian coast. What he saw contradicts every headline about the Strait of Hormuz being closed.
Approximately 50 percent of tanker traffic in the strait is missing from public AIS tracking systems. The vessels are not missing because they sank. They are missing because they turned off their transponders, spoofed their GPS coordinates to broadcast false positions, duplicated the identity codes of decommissioned ships, switched to low-power transmission mode, or swapped identities with nearby vessels. The result is an electronic fog through which physical ships move crude to Asian ports while the tracking systems that Bloomberg terminals rely on show an empty waterway. More than $3 billion in crude has been transported through the strait since the war began, primarily to China, much of it under Iranian terms, paid in yuan or cryptocurrency.
The strait is not closed. It is filtered. Iran decides who passes and who does not. Ships that pay the IRGC toll and accept escort through the Larak corridor transit under the electronic fog. Ships that refuse are turned away or attacked. The “closure” that drove Brent to $115 and Aramco’s OSP to a record $19.50 premium is a selective blockade operating behind spoofed transponder data that makes it look total when it is not.
Brent dropped from approximately $115 to the $108 range as the report circulated. The market had priced in a complete shutdown. The reality is a controlled chokepoint generating toll revenue while maintaining the appearance of total disruption to maximise the scarcity premium on every barrel that gets through. Iran is running two operations simultaneously: a blockade for the cameras and a toll booth behind the blockade for the revenue. The opacity is the product. The fear is the markup.
The techniques are not sophisticated. Going dark requires flipping a switch. GPS spoofing requires a $500 device injecting false coordinates into the transponder’s GPS input. Identity theft requires typing a different MMSI number into the AIS configuration screen. Low-power mode requires switching from 12.5 watts to 1 watt. These are not state-level cyber operations. They are the maritime equivalent of turning off your phone’s location services. The ghost fleet runs on technology any ship’s officer can deploy in minutes.
The 50 percent blind spot means every estimate of Hormuz disruption based on public AIS data, every IEA shortfall calculation, every Goldman Sachs supply model, and every insurance premium derived from vessel tracking is working with half the picture. The other half is sailing in the dark, loaded with crude, headed for Chinese refineries, paying the IRGC in the currency of the country that ships sodium perchlorate to fill the missiles that the same IRGC fires at Israeli cities.
The strait the world thinks is closed is open for business. The price of admission is invisibility. And the entity collecting the toll in yuan while demanding war compensation in the ten-point response is profiting from the blockade it claims is absolute, selling passage through the chokepoint it says will “never return to its former state,” and funding the war with the revenue from the peace it refuses to sign.
open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

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NEW: US officials say there is too large a gap to bridge between the US and Iranian positions before Trump's 8 PM Tuesday deadline, per the Wall Street Journal.
Trump is expected to issue final orders for strikes Tuesday evening.
US officials say Trump has privately been less hopeful that Iran will make a deal, despite his public framing of "good faith negotiations."
Iranian officials told mediators they expect the US to continue striking and Israel to keep killing senior officials even if negotiations move forward.
English
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Peraturan di rumah saya kalau nanti punya suami:
1. Bila suami tidak di rumah, semua tamu lawan jenis akan diterima di teras kecuali saudara saya (Bapak, adik) dan bapak mertua. Adik dan kakak ipar laki-laki akan tetap diterima di teras.
Sama halnya bila saya tidak di rumah dan hanya ada suami, tamu perempuan tidak boleh masuk kecuali mahram.
2. Bila ada suami di rumah, tamu lelaki baru boleh masuk.
3. Bila ada teman suami main dan ada suami di rumah, maka hanya boleh sampai pukul 9 malam. Batasan ruang yang boleh dimasuki sampai ruang tamu.
Apabila lebih dari pukul 9 malam, silakan main di luar. Menginap? Teman? Oh, hell, no.
YAPPINGFESS@yappingfess
Yap! gimana menirut kalian?
Indonesia











