Robbert

Voor het eerst sinds veertig jaar wordt er weer een nieuwe chipsfabriek gebouwd in Nederland. Dankzij de EU Chips Act. In Eindhoven werken ze de weekends en in de bouwvak door om photonica chips te kunnen ontwerpen en maken. Voor AI data centres, maar ook voor sensoren en medische apparaten. We werken in Brussel nu aan een nieuwe, ambitieuzere EU Chips Act. Voor meer nieuwe en ambitieuzere fabrieken. Wordt vervolgd

The MAGA crowd in Washington has decided that since Europeans don’t sufficiently appreciate Trump, the American bases on the continent must go. This is the strategic reasoning of a man who burns down his own kitchen. American bases in Europe were never a favour. They are the logistical spine of every war the United States fights east of Gibraltar. Ramstein moves the cargo, Aviano launches the jets, Rota services the ships. Without them the Pentagon does not project power into the Middle East. It projects PowerPoint. The fantasy assumes the alternative is aircraft carriers gliding majestically into the Persian Gulf. That era is ending. A modern carrier is a thirteen-billion-dollar trophy that can be reduced to scrap by a couple of hundred cheap missiles fired from the Iranian coast. China noticed. The other fantasy is that America simply fights from home. Picture the alternative: twenty thousand transatlantic sorties shuttling spare parts, munitions, fuel bladders, mechanics and replacement pilots from Norfolk and Dover to wherever the war happens to be. A C-17 burns through roughly 35,000 dollars of fuel every hour it flies, and the round trip from the American east coast to the Gulf is the better part of a day. Multiply that by every bolt, every missile, every spare engine. The war becomes a sustained airborne traffic jam with the bill arriving by the second. So you need land, specifically land near the war. Modern combat aircraft are not Spitfires you fuel up and send off with a wave. An F-35 demands an entire Walmart of spare parts, a small city of technicians, climate-controlled hangars and a supply chain stretching halfway round the planet. Drones need operators, networks, satellites and a steady diet of components no carrier can store. Modern war arrives by container ship and lives in a warehouse. Close the bases, and Washington loses the warehouses. Lose the warehouses, and the next confrontation with Iran is either fought by phone or fought from Kansas with a flight schedule that bankrupts the Treasury before the first missile lands. MAGA thinks shutting Ramstein punishes Europe. It punishes America. Europe will be inconvenienced. America will be unarmed. And so, after a thousand insults, a thousand sneers, a thousand late-night posts about freeloading allies, Europe is quietly drafting the politest letter in diplomatic history. It thanks America for its service. It wishes the troops a safe journey home. It suggests, with great warmth, that Washington might now turn its attention to its neighbours in Latin America, where a fading superpower can busy itself with whatever a fading superpower busies itself with. Spain had its century. Britain had its empire. The Soviets had their parades. Each ended the same way: as a shadow of itself, with the historians left to argue, volume after volume, about precisely when the rot set in and why nobody noticed in time. America is welcome to join them on the shelf.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ If you like what you read, please follow Gandalv on Substack: @gandalv" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">substack.com/@gandalv

Germany is not hosting American troops. It is hosting American power. Amplifying it. Projecting it across three continents. And now, for the first time with real legal and political weight behind it, voices inside Germany are beginning to say out loud: Berlin could shut down every American base on German soil. A fiber-optic cable runs beneath Ramstein Air Base. It carries a signal from a drone pilot in Nevada to an armed aircraft over Yemen. Fraction of a second. Precision. Control. That cable sits on German soil. Cut it, and the strikes do not miss. They simply cannot happen. This week Washington punished Berlin for telling the truth about the Iran war. Five thousand troops withdrawn. A presidential post calling Germany a failure. The language of a tenant who has forgotten whose name is on the deed. Because Berlin can end all of it. Not the 5,000. All 36,436. Every soldier, every satellite dish, every signal passing through German soil on its way to a target over Africa or the Middle East. Spain tore it up. Italy said no. Germany has not moved yet. But it is thinking about it. And what it is thinking about is this: Germany holds the one thing that separates America from every other country on earth. The ability to project military force across three continents simultaneously. Take away the European staging ground and the United States becomes what every other nation in the Western Hemisphere already is. Large. Armed. And unable to reach anyone who does not live next door. open.substack.com/pub/gandalv/p/…

China’s GPL (government procurement) law has effectively been pushing out European vendors from the Chinese market for years

I resigned as U.S. Ambassador Ukraine when Trump kept siding with Putin over our democratic partner. Now, my successor is doing the same. I knew I had to speak out and run for office because siding with dictators is just not who we are.

"We zijn op allerlei gebieden – veiligheid, energie, grondstoffen – afhankelijk van anderen. Pas als wij die afhankelijkheden afbouwen, dan komen we sterker te staan." 👆 Onze minister van Buitenlandse Zaken @tbwberendsen spreekt met het AD over zijn inzet namens Nederland. 🇳🇱

🔴 لسنوات كنت أتابع العلاقات الاماراتية السعودية عن كثب، استطيع القول أننا اليوم أمام أخطر قرار يضرب العلاقات الثنائية منذ سنوات طويلة وستكون تبعاته الجيوسياسية كبيرة. انسحاب الإمارات من منظمة "أوبك" هو تمرد سياسي على السعودية اكثر منه خطوة اقتصادية، هذه الخطوة ليست مجرد "خيار اقتصادي" ناتج عن الرغبة في زيادة الإنتاج، بل أصبحت تعبيراً عن تحول وجودي في السياسية الإماراتية، لا سيما بعد الحرب الإيرانية. الامارات تروج أن فكرة الانسحاب من أوبك ردا على "زيف الوعود" المتعلقة بالتضامن العربي. لكن الحقيقة ان خروج الإمارات من أوبك يمثل "الزلزال" الذي قد ينهي عصر السيطرة السعودية على سياسات الطاقة الإقليمية. وسيفتح الباب أمام رسم خارطة علاقات إماراتية خارج المنظومة العربية، خاصة جهة إسرائيل والولايات المتحدة. 🔴 سأشرح ذلك بالتفصيل وبعمق كبير للمهتمين 🔷 كان هناك خلاف تاريخي بين السعودية والإمارات في اوبك بلس حوّل سياسات الإنتاج، قررت الإمارات معالجة الاختلاف عبر تجاوز التشاور والتنسيق مع المملكة. 🔷 تحتاج السعودية إلى أسعار مرتفعة (فوق 80 دولاراً) لتمويل مشاريع "رؤية 2030"، مما يدفعها للتمسك بخفض الإنتاج من خلال أوبك. في المقابل، تمتلك الإمارات اقتصاداً أكثر تنوعا وتكلفة إنتاج هي من بين الأقل عالمياً، مما يجعلها تفضل زيادة حجم المبيعات حتى لو انخفضت الأسعار قليلاً لضمان الاستحواذ على حصة سوقية أكبر. 🔷 تحولت العلاقة بين الرياض وأبوظبي في السنوات الماضية من "التحالف الوثيق" إلى "المنافسة الشرسة" في الاقتصاد. ويمثل الانسحاب من أوبك الإعلان الرسمي عن نهاية "التبعية الاقتصادية" لسياسات الرياض، وتبني "قومية مفرطة" تضع مصالح الإمارات فوق أي اعتبار تضامني خليجي. 🔷 يعاني مجلس التعاون من ضعف مؤسسي يجعل القرارات رهينة العلاقات الشخصية بين القادة. ومع تزايد الفجوة في المواقف تجاه إيران واليمن، أصبح النفط هو الساحة الأخيرة للتنسيق، وانسحاب الإمارات، سيؤدي إلى انقسام المجلس إلى كتل متنافسة. 🔷 الانسحاب الإماراتي سيؤدي إلى إضعاف تحالف "أوبك بلس" بشكل قد لا يتعافى منه أبداً. 🔷 تعد الإمارات صمام أمان داخل التحالف لموازنة "عدم انضباط" روسيا، التي غالباً ما تنتج فوق حصتها لتمويل مجهودها الحربي. بدون الإمارات، ستجد السعودية نفسها وحيدة في مواجهة "المجانيين" (Free Riders) مثل موسكو، مما قد يدفع الرياض لشن "حرب أسعار" مدمرة لاستعادة الانضباط، كما حدث في عام 2020. 🔴 على المسرح الدولي، سيمثل هذا القرار إعادة رسم لخرائط النفوذ الجيوسياسي. 🔷 ترى الولايات المتحدة في أوبك "كارتلاً" يخدم المصالح الروسية ويضر بالمستهلك الأمريكي. انسحاب الإمارات سيعتبر "انتصاراً كبيراً للسياسة الخارجية الأمريكية"، لأنه سيؤدي لتفكيك وحدة القرار النفطي العربي-الروسي ويضعف من قدرة أوبك على استخدام النفط كسلاح سياسي. 🔷 تتجه بوصلة الطلب العالمي نحو آسيا (الصين والهند). تسعى الإمارات لتوقيع اتفاقيات توريد مباشرة مع هذه القوى، على حساب قدرة أوبك على التحكم في تدفقات الخام نحو الشرق. 🔷 طموح الإمارات لا يتوقف عند بيع الخام، بل تسعى لتكون مركزاً عالمياً للهيدروجين والأمونيا والطاقة المتجددة. هذا التحول يتطلب سيولة مالية فورية وضخمة، والانسحاب من أوبك هو "المفتاح" لتحرير هذه السيولة من خلال الإنتاج الأقصى. 🔴 وفي التفاصيل الحقيقية التي تقف خلف القرار الإماراتي 🔷 تتبنى الإمارات استراتيجية تقوم على إنتاج أكبر قدر ممكن من النفط الآن لتمويل التحول نحو الاقتصاد الأخضر. هناك إجماع على أن "نافذة الطلب" الذهبية على الوقود الأحفوري قد تنغلق بحلول عام 2040. 🔷 لذا، ترى أبوظبي أن الاحتفاظ بالنفط تحت الأرض التزاماً بحصص أوبك هو مخاطرة بخلق "أصول عالقة" (Stranded Assets) لا قيمة لها في المستقبل. 🔷 استثمرت الإمارات أكثر من 122 مليار دولار لرفع طاقتها الإنتاجية إلى 5 ملايين برميل يومياً بحلول 2030. ومع ذلك، تظل حصص أوبك تجبر الدولة على الإنتاج بمستويات تقل بكثير عن قدرتها الحقيقية (حوالي 2.6 إلى 3.1 مليون برميل يومياً في اتفاقات سابقة). 🔷 كما أن إطلاق خام مربان كمعيار تسعير عالمي يتطلب مرونة في الإمدادات لا توفرها أوبك؛ فالإمارات تطمح لأن يكون مربان منافساً لـ "خام برنت" و"تكساس"، وهذا يتطلب ترك قوى السوق هي من تحدد حجم الإنتاج، وليس القرارات السياسية للمنظمة في فيينا.

For the first time in recorded history, more Americans are moving to 🇪🇺🇨🇭🇬🇧 EU+EFTA+UK countries each year than Europeans from those places are moving to the 🇺🇸 US. The ratio was 4:1 in favour of the US in the early 2000s. It crossed parity around 2022. This is new.

President Trump’s abuse of America's allies has reached a tipping point. Now countries have started making long-term policy shifts — and those shifts will soon take on a life of their own. My take:

General Sir Richard Shirreff doesn’t mince words. “This is not the act of an ally,” he said. “It is the act of a predator, a bully, and a country which is undermining NATO.” Shirreff isn’t some think-tank bureaucrat who has never left his armchair. He was NATO’s Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe. The second-highest military post in the entire alliance. When he speaks, it carries weight that most politicians can only dream of. And he is saying, plainly, that the United States is no longer an ally. Europe has heard the message. Defence spending across EU member states hit 343 billion euros in 2024, up 19 percent in a single year. Nearly every NATO member has now signed up to the new 5 percent of GDP target. Germany unlocked over a trillion euros in defence and infrastructure spending. Poland is already at 4.7 percent. The continent is rearming at a pace not seen since the Cold War. Not because Russia got more dangerous overnight. Because Washington did. The old transatlantic bargain was simple: America leads, Europe follows, everyone stays safe. That bargain is dead. What replaced it is something uglier. A protection racket dressed up in alliance language. Pay more, or we might not show up. Spend five percent, or face consequences. Open the Strait of Hormuz, or NATO has “a very bad future.” That is not an ally talking. That is an extortionist. Shirreff called it a predator. He is right. And Europe, slowly and expensively, is finally building a house that doesn’t depend on the goodwill of the landlord. youtu.be/rhU0m_Y5ItU?is… via @YouTube

In the United States, President Trump’s periodic insults hurled toward allies get treated as routine tantrums. But in those countries, the accumulation of abuse has reached a tipping point. My latest column: washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/…

The United States has just nuked its own arms export business. Not with a missile. With a phone call. Pete Hegseth rang Estonia’s defense minister and told him the HIMARS and Javelin deliveries are on hold. Indefinitely. Months, not weeks. No timeline. No alternative. Just: sorry, we’re busy bombing Iran. And that’s it. Twenty years of patient alliance-building, vaporized in a Monday morning call. Here’s what European defense planners now know for certain: American weapons come with an asterisk. The asterisk reads “subject to cancellation whenever Washington decides its own adventure takes priority.” You can sign the contracts. You can train your soldiers. You can build your entire defensive posture around US systems. And then one day, the ammo stops. No warning. No plan B. Estonia is already shopping elsewhere. So is everyone else, with the kind of focus that only comes from genuine betrayal. The Americans think this is a pause. Europe knows it’s a divorce.

The EU just declared war on glued-in batteries. From February 18, 2027, every smartphone and tablet sold in Europe must have a battery you can swap yourself. No heat gun. No solvents. Just normal tools any person can buy. Article 11 of the EU Batteries Regulation makes it law. There’s a loophole, naturally. Phones that clear certain waterproofing and battery longevity thresholds can skip end-user replaceability, as long as a professional can still do it. Apple’s lawyers are already reading that sentence very carefully. Samsung may actually be ahead of the curve. Recent Galaxy models already use pull-tab adhesives, which could put them close to compliant without a redesign. The era of “sorry, that’s not a serviceable part” is ending. In Europe, at least.

Bravo! Electric buses are 56% of city buses in Europe 🇪🇺 - up from 12% in six years! City buses in Europe go electric at high speed. In my home country, Norway, we are close to 100%. But please look at the map - the trend is across the continent! It will be supercharged by the war in the Gulf. Every nation wishes to be energy independent. And why cling to fossils when electric buses are cheaper to run, more high tech and easy to charge in bus depots? It’s important to note that the electric turn is not just in Europe. China of course is leading on everything electric. Ethiopia has prohibited fossil cars. 80% of new cars in Nepal are electric, 40% in Vietnam and 50% in Singapore. Santiago de Chile and Delhi host the highest number of electric buses outside China - more than any European city. The trend is global! The tipping point is behind us. The green shift is much faster than we often think!

"I want Germany and Europe to be strong enough that nobody can blackmail us". This by @larsklingbeil is exactly the right understanding of European sovereignty. The sovereignty to make choices and not be blackmailed.

Peak of tulip season is right now in the Netherlands. This one is from earlier this week.

De kade van de Kloveniersburgwal bij het Trippenhuis is prachtig opgeknapt en vooralsnog autovrij. Mag het zo blijven? Wat een verschil met de overzijde waar het een verloederde bende is, deze stad onwaardig.

America went to war in the Middle East to secure oil. China just sold everyone the exit. While Washington burned through alliances and aircraft carriers, Beijing spent a decade quietly monopolizing solar panels, batteries, and electric vehicles. The Iran war didn’t slow that down. It accelerated it. Oil prices spiked. Clean energy orders went through the roof. Chinese battery exports are up 57% year on year. Solar, batteries and EVs hit $22 billion in a single month. Gandalv / @Microinteracti1

Can Europe electrify faster if energy rules and chemicals rules pull in different directions? A joined-up approach to materials and infrastructure policy could help keep projects moving and systems safe, say @EpoxyEU. Partner content

💥🇭🇺🗳️ BREAKING: Péter Magyar says Viktor Orbán called to concede and congratulate him. Magyar will be Hungary’s next prime minister and, as it stands, is set to secure a 2/3 supermajority – enough to fully dismantle Orbán’s system. A 16-year chapter is over.