Tom Schultz

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Tom Schultz

Tom Schultz

@thomasjschultz

boglehead • bitcoin • collectibles • dabble in politics

Washington, DC Присоединился Nisan 2009
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Mark Cuban
Mark Cuban@mcuban·
No one knew who I was when I started. Literally no one. My 1st company , I had to email reporters and tell them what they got wrong or right. I learned quickly they needed as much content as I could help them generate. That led to more people asking me for my opinion on software, networking, you name it. That led to me going on various radio and tv stations and then news channels. That blew up my first company that I sold Then it helped blow up my second company that I sold. Then it helped me blow up my 3rd company that I sold. Then I bought the Mavs and the rest is history I wasn't an actor, athlete or born into fame. I was a guy who figured out that the more I communicated with people who had platforms, the more they would platform me The more I stood apart from everyone else and was able to back it up, the more interest I could create That led to a TV show that failed. That led to Shark Tank and who knows how many tv appearances. They got me the platform that allowed me to create @costplusdrugs I never had a PR firm. Never paid to appear anywhere. I found places where I could add value and stand out and went there. That's what got me here The difference between now and then, there are thousands of podcasts and streamers and influencers that need content more than anyone ever did back in the day . Anyone who knows how to brush their teeth can start on small podcasts, find a niche, see if it works and grow from there
Sean Gilfillan 🇺🇸@SeanCGilfillan

GTFO, Mark. If you have a mass distro channel like having an influencer with over 1M followers that you can use for free that’s ok. But that’s a silly thing to say. Every company needs distro. Influencer, event activations, digital, social, etc. you HAVE to have mass distro to reach enough people.

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shirish
shirish@shiri_shh·
Farmer pays $5–$8 per cow per month. A New Zealand company puts a solar-powered smart collar on cows. It tracks location 24/7, health, temperature, chewing activity, breeding. Farmer just opens a simple app and draws a line on the map. That line becomes the fence. As cows approach the boundary, the collar beeps and vibrates. With one tap, the whole herd moves to fresh grass or the milking shed. No physical fences. Less labor. Huge cost savings for farmer. Already on 700k cows across New Zealand, Australia, and the US. and now in talks to raise at a $2B valuation led by Peter Thiel.
Polymarket@Polymarket

JUST IN: AI cow collar startup Halter raises at $2,000,000,000.00 valuation, uses proprietary “cowgorithm” to herd cattle.

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Nick Nemeth (Mispriced Assets)
TLDR: I am a recovering alcoholic with no fund, no credentials, and no lobbyist. I rebuilt myself from nothing. Then I broke into finance with no degree, no pedigree, and no permission. I parsed SEC filings for a $31.5 billion private credit fund called Cliffwater. Not because anyone asked me to. Because nobody else would. The filings are public, but they are buried in footnotes that are not indexed, not searchable, and not structured for analysis. I have been told by fund managers that nobody even attempts this. Billions of dollars in pension capital, and the people who manage money for a living do not bother to read the filings. So I read them. Every loan. Every amendment. Every semi-annual PIK disclosure. 2,330 positions. I hand-researched fifty. I found 189 loans where borrowers are paying interest with more debt instead of cash. I found over 50 loans that are not generating enough cash to service their debt at all — carried at par on the books of a fund that has never reported a losing month in 41 months. The fund's Sharpe ratio is 3.75. Bernie Madoff — who was fabricating returns and could pick any number he wanted — ran a 3.5. He got caught because the numbers were too smooth by Markopolos. The greatest quant fund in history, Renaissance Technologies, runs a five or six. Cliffwater is claiming risk-adjusted returns that would be impossible even if you insider-traded with perfect information every single time, because the volatility of the underlying markets would still prevent it. Nobody asked questions. Bloomberg confirmed 14% redemptions 48 hours after I published. S&P cut the fund's outlook to negative this week. Cash on hand fell 76% in six months. This is not an isolated fund. This is the structure. $9.4 trillion in private equity. $3.5 trillion in private credit. They all pay their own valuation agents. The valuation agents decide what the funds are worth. No valuation agent has ever been fired for saying the number was too high. The marks produce the NAV. The NAV produces the fees. The fees come from pensions. The pensions come from firefighters and teachers and nurses in Oregon and California and Illinois who will never read a private placement memorandum in their lives. Wall Street ran out of rich people. The endowments were full. The sovereign wealth funds were tapped. So they went downstream — to 401(k)s, to retirement accounts, to interval funds sold to people who have no idea what they own. 1. Direct the SEC and FSOC to examine Level 3 fair value practices across interval funds and BDCs. 2. Require that valuation agents be independent of the funds they mark. 3. State publicly that the current self-marking regime creates systemic risk. 4. Mandate position-level mark disclosure for every fund that accepts pension capital. There are two ways this ends. It breaks all at once like 2008 and we fix it. Or it rots slowly like Japan: one fund blows up, six weeks of quiet, another one, and nobody connects it for a decade while a generation of retirees gets destroyed. I am not asking anyone to take my word for it. I am asking them to read the filings. If you know someone in the administration, a regulator, or anyone on a legislative committee, please send this to them. One person learned this from a one-bedroom apartment. Your government can too. The will is what is missing.
Nick Nemeth (Mispriced Assets)@NickNemo17

x.com/i/article/2034…

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junkbondinvestor
junkbondinvestor@junkbondinvest·
Look at the left chart. Private credit bankruptcy recoveries. 6 out of 13 issuers recovered 25 cents or less. Almost nothing in the middle. You either get out near whole or you get almost nothing. That's Apollo's Zito "20 to 40 cents" call showing up in actual data.
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Travis Hawley
Travis Hawley@talk2trav·
The narrative that Israeli PM Netanyahu is dead is not organic, it is a coordinated information operation largely coming from India and Pakistan based bot and sock puppet enterprises. I will prove it in this thread. 🧵 CC: @nikitabier
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Sam Block
Sam Block@theblockspot·
Arkansas was far from elite. Arkansas is elite with John Calipari. St. John’s was far from elite. St. John’s is elite with Rick Pitino. Michigan was far from elite. Michigan is elite with Dusty May. Coaching matters.
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High Yield Harry
High Yield Harry@HighyieldHarry·
Say it with me - Private Credit will have bifurcated outcomes. This is incredible closed doors commentary re: levered software & other things:
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John Arnold
John Arnold@johnarnold·
The Atlantic has a sobering, first-person look at the ramifications of legalized online sports betting. Here are a few of the more telling passages. 1/5
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Dov Kleiman
Dov Kleiman@NFL_DovKleiman·
No Way: We have been mispronouncing new Saints RB Travis Etienne's name totally wrong for years. "Travis Ay-Chan" 🤯🤯🤯
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Reggie Wayne
Reggie Wayne@ReggieWayne_17·
I know I've said this before. But Mom and Dad. Not sure it would've even been possible. But... You had me too damn early. They're throwing money around out here....
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John Arnold
John Arnold@johnarnold·
The data center buildout has allowed Loudoun County to lower property tax rates by 38% since 2010, translating to average savings of about $3,400 per year for homeowners.
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Brian Armstrong
Brian Armstrong@brian_armstrong·
Some of our best hires were totally unqualified on paper. They always had the same qualities: entrepreneurial, high agency, smart, mission aligned, and they got shit done. If you’re hiring, especially in early stages, seek out & bet on these people. Don’t over-index on resumes.
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Barnacle Taintpipe
Barnacle Taintpipe@BarnieTaintpipe·
On Block. I'm mentally exhausted from seeing almost everyone have the wrong take from the $XYZ news. AI layoffs ARE coming. Across sectors (not just fintech). This is guaranteed over the next 1-3 years. However... The Block layoffs are NOT those. Block has operated with 2-3x the required staff to run their business for a long time (probably 4-5 years at this point). This is WELL KNOWN in the industry. Without their headcount, they most likely would have shipped FASTER. They would be a bigger, more profitable company with a larger product suite on the merchant and consumer side. The promises made by them in their 2021 Investor Day are fresh in my head. I was in awe. Completely visionary stuff and I was in awe, but it was bungled by a lack of ability to execute. It didn't seem like Square or Cash App was moving at all for about 2 years after that. My job is to monitor them (among other things, of course) and I literally removed them from my map of competitors to stay updated on. They came back in 2025 after Dorsey actually came back to run the business. 2022-2024 were completely lost in what I assume to be bureaucracy and nonsense. I, along with others, called Block a retirement home -- lovingly after Microsoft, which I also called a retirement home. These are not AI layoffs. This is the right call to steer a ship that should be a fintech powerhouse back where it probably belonged for the last 4 years. When I saw the news, I was happy as a shareholder that knew all of the above, and a little concerned as a competitor. That is a GOOD THING. Inevitably, they will reach a stage where true "AI layoffs" are possible. Dorsey will again NOT lay his people off. This is who he is -- for all his flaws as an operator, he legitimately cares for his people and company morale and that's why this has built up for so long for such a large headline. I know I only have like 500 followers or something, but I wish everyone could understand this before deciding to post their wrong opinion on everything.
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Marcelo P. Lima
Marcelo P. Lima@MarceloLima·
Block $XYZ 40% RIF is the new Citrini fake narrative. Everyone will assume Jack Dorsey "greatest of all time" is doing this because of AI. He's not. Block has been massively bloated for years. Don't forget, Jack was head of Twitter. When Elon took over, he fired 80% of staff within 5 months and the product got better. This was before generative AI and Claude Code. Here are a few receipts of just how mismanaged Block has been over the years: x.com/MarceloLima/st… x.com/MarceloLima/st… x.com/MarceloLima/st… x.com/MarceloLima/st… memosbyhh.com/how-mismanaged…
Balaji@balajis

This is the first AI cut. And it will send shockwaves. Remember: Jack is one of the greatest founders of all time. He created this platform that we’re all on, and has been early to many technological shifts. And Block was doing very well as a business. So, for him to cut 40% of headcount in this way is a signal to everyone in tech: get good now. Become indispensable. Work nights and weekends. Learn the AI tools and raise your game. Or you might not make the cut, as an employee or as a company. I know. That sucks. But capitalism is natural selection. The market is unforgiving, because you are the market. After all, it’s not like you’re buying some random gallon of milk from the store; you’re always buying the best product at the best price. So too for apps: your customers are always installing the best piece of code they can get. And because AI is going to create new winners, if you aren’t the best in your market, someone may become better with AI. Particularly with the new agentic workflows. To be clear: Block’s severance is generous by any measure. 20 weeks of pay, six months of health insurance and vested equity, all of that goes far beyond any typical package. Jack did his level best to cushion the disruption. The laid off are a temporarily unfortunate class, as opposed to a permanent underclass. But had he not leaned into the AI transition, he might have had to lay off more people, slowly, and over time, as faster competitors went after his market share. How would they do that? Sure, AI isn’t a panacea by any means, but the closer you are to software engineering the more aggressively you need to embrace agentic workflows. The AI companies are already doing that, and places like Stripe, Shopify, Coinbase, and now Block are pushing hard on this area. There will be overcorrection. But the fundamental technical innovation is real. And you need to either disrupt yourself or get disrupted.

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Balaji
Balaji@balajis·
This is the first AI cut. And it will send shockwaves. Remember: Jack is one of the greatest founders of all time. He created this platform that we’re all on, and has been early to many technological shifts. And Block was doing very well as a business. So, for him to cut 40% of headcount in this way is a signal to everyone in tech: get good now. Become indispensable. Work nights and weekends. Learn the AI tools and raise your game. Or you might not make the cut, as an employee or as a company. I know. That sucks. But capitalism is natural selection. The market is unforgiving, because you are the market. After all, it’s not like you’re buying some random gallon of milk from the store; you’re always buying the best product at the best price. So too for apps: your customers are always installing the best piece of code they can get. And because AI is going to create new winners, if you aren’t the best in your market, someone may become better with AI. Particularly with the new agentic workflows. To be clear: Block’s severance is generous by any measure. 20 weeks of pay, six months of health insurance and vested equity, all of that goes far beyond any typical package. Jack did his level best to cushion the disruption. The laid off are a temporarily unfortunate class, as opposed to a permanent underclass. But had he not leaned into the AI transition, he might have had to lay off more people, slowly, and over time, as faster competitors went after his market share. How would they do that? Sure, AI isn’t a panacea by any means, but the closer you are to software engineering the more aggressively you need to embrace agentic workflows. The AI companies are already doing that, and places like Stripe, Shopify, Coinbase, and now Block are pushing hard on this area. There will be overcorrection. But the fundamental technical innovation is real. And you need to either disrupt yourself or get disrupted.
jack@jack

we're making @blocks smaller today. here's my note to the company. #### today we're making one of the hardest decisions in the history of our company: we're reducing our organization by nearly half, from over 10,000 people to just under 6,000. that means over 4,000 of you are being asked to leave or entering into consultation. i'll be straight about what's happening, why, and what it means for everyone. first off, if you're one of the people affected, you'll receive your salary for 20 weeks + 1 week per year of tenure, equity vested through the end of may, 6 months of health care, your corporate devices, and $5,000 to put toward whatever you need to help you in this transition (if you’re outside the U.S. you’ll receive similar support but exact details are going to vary based on local requirements). i want you to know that before anything else. everyone will be notified today, whether you're being asked to leave, entering consultation, or asked to stay. we're not making this decision because we're in trouble. our business is strong. gross profit continues to grow, we continue to serve more and more customers, and profitability is improving. but something has changed. we're already seeing that the intelligence tools we’re creating and using, paired with smaller and flatter teams, are enabling a new way of working which fundamentally changes what it means to build and run a company. and that's accelerating rapidly. i had two options: cut gradually over months or years as this shift plays out, or be honest about where we are and act on it now. i chose the latter. repeated rounds of cuts are destructive to morale, to focus, and to the trust that customers and shareholders place in our ability to lead. i'd rather take a hard, clear action now and build from a position we believe in than manage a slow reduction of people toward the same outcome. a smaller company also gives us the space to grow our business the right way, on our own terms, instead of constantly reacting to market pressures. a decision at this scale carries risk. but so does standing still. we've done a full review to determine the roles and people we require to reliably grow the business from here, and we've pressure-tested those decisions from multiple angles. i accept that we may have gotten some of them wrong, and we've built in flexibility to account for that, and do the right thing for our customers. we're not going to just disappear people from slack and email and pretend they were never here. communication channels will stay open through thursday evening (pacific) so everyone can say goodbye properly, and share whatever you wish. i'll also be hosting a live video session to thank everyone at 3:35pm pacific. i know doing it this way might feel awkward. i'd rather it feel awkward and human than efficient and cold. to those of you leaving…i’m grateful for you, and i’m sorry to put you through this. you built what this company is today. that's a fact that i'll honor forever. this decision is not a reflection of what you contributed. you will be a great contributor to any organization going forward. to those staying…i made this decision, and i'll own it. what i'm asking of you is to build with me. we're going to build this company with intelligence at the core of everything we do. how we work, how we create, how we serve our customers. our customers will feel this shift too, and we're going to help them navigate it: towards a future where they can build their own features directly, composed of our capabilities and served through our interfaces. that's what i'm focused on now. expect a note from me tomorrow. jack

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Scott Braddock
Scott Braddock@scottbraddock·
There's nothing like the final days of a Texas primary: Candidates barnstorming the Great State, desperate attacks, poll greeters cussed out, police reports, divorce proceedings, DUI arrests, porn addiction revelations, murder allegations, signs vandalized, screwy polling, etc
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