Clèmerson Merlin Clève

THE FALL by John Gray Donald Trump's self-described "little excursion" in Iran has proved to be a march to disaster. His "major combat operation" has shifted from aiming to block Iran achieving a nuclear capability that was supposedly "obliterated" last June to unblocking the Strait of Hormuz and restoring the situation that existed before the operation began. Whatever the objective may be, the pre-war status quo is irretrievable. Trump cannot declare victory and walk away without surrendering the vital shipping conduit to Iran. With its proven capacity to wreak havoc on the world economy, a bombed-out military-theocratic dictatorship has begun the final unravelling of US imperial power. In the Middle East, the war has undercut the financial foundations of US hegemony. However the war ends, the result will be the re-emergence of Iran as a major power. As the arbiter of passage through Hormuz, Iran has become the deciding force in the global oil economy. If Trump opts to "finish the job" and launches a ground operation, the US will be dragged into a debacle larger than Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq combined. While Nato may linger on in name, the transatlantic alliance is operationally defunct. America is returning to its pre-1914 trajectory as a civilisation separate from Europe. In the UK, the default position is to wait out the storm until sanity returns to Washington. Why Putin or Xi Jinping should exhibit similar patience is not explained. Could there be a better time for them to act? Ramping up hybrid warfare in under-defended Europe will give Putin leverage in any peace deal in Ukraine. With Trump having shifted military assets from the Asia-Pacific to the Middle East and running down munitions, Xi may be able to absorb Taiwan without firing a shot. This is not simply a case of the lessons of history being ignored. Trump's war looks more like an example of what Sigmund Freud described as repetition compulsion – an unconscious process in which the mind acts out what it cannot properly remember. A creature of the moment as he may be, Trump seems driven by an impulse to reimagine the past and reassert American – and his own – greatness. When an infantile fantasy of omnipotence comes up against unyielding realities, the response is inchoate rage. Psychopathology may be more illuminating than geopolitics at this point. In a more profound sense than is commonly recognised, Donald Trump does not know what he is doing. His little excursion is a point of no return in America's retreat as a global power. Cover art by Cracked Hat