Fernando D Ramirez F
5.8K posts

Fernando D Ramirez F
@Reves
Electrical engineer, FPGAs, Power Electronics and Drives. Coffee lover, amateur photographer. We are only stardust!
Germany Sumali Haziran 2007
218 Sinusundan234 Mga Tagasunod
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“ai is overhyped” people are gonna have a bad time
ai used to help with little tasks...
now it can stay on task for many hours
this is gonna disrupt everything

METR@METR_Evals
We estimate that Claude Opus 4.6 has a 50%-time-horizon of around 14.5 hours (95% CI of 6 hrs to 98 hrs) on software tasks. While this is the highest point estimate we’ve reported, this measurement is extremely noisy because our current task suite is nearly saturated.
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Silver didn’t go parabolic because it’s a precious metal.
It went parabolic because it’s an AI input.
Data centers, power grids, chips, robotics, EVs, drones all need silver.
When scarcity meets exponential demand, price doesn’t matter.
New video on how silver revealed the island of forgotten AI trades 👇
🔗youtu.be/CEtUJN2nfEI

YouTube

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Picasso mastered realism before he abandoned it.
Not because realism was wrong, but because it was finished.
Investing is at the same moment.
AI has commoditized analysis.
What’s scarce now is perspective.
Bitcoin isn’t the answer to AI.
It’s the companion to the uncertainty AI creates.
The Picasso Problem: Why the future of investing looks abstract.
⬇️visserlabs.substack.com/p/the-picasso-…

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This may be my last video of the year.
I walk through where I agree and disagree with Jim Chanos on the AI bear case, especially on the revenue side in 2026.
The key difference: AI agents, not models or data centers, are the revenue unlock. That’s where enterprise budgets shift, labor gets replaced, and earnings start to show up. What companies win.
I also cover Micron, Cisco, Tesla, Bitcoin, jobs & inflation, Bill Gurley, Demis Hassabis, Sam Altman and why agents are the framework for investing in 2026.
Full weekly recap 👇
youtu.be/0Hcw9toVRNg

YouTube

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This week, Pomp and I cover the macro world for the week with an extended focus on AI macro themes for next year benefitting from the transition from LLMs to VLMs and what sectors and stocks to look at for 2026.
youtube.com/watch?v=OJPZS2…

YouTube

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How far will this Bitcoin bull market go?
I've thought through where I think we are now, the possible outcomes, and what I'm doing.
Here's my thought process:
1) I start by comparing the similarities and differences between Bitcoin's market cycles...
2014 - Mostly BTC retail boom-bust cycle
2017 - ICO mania boom-bust cycle
2021 - NFT mania + stock-driven bear market
2025 - Mostly BTC institutional buying + supply crunch
2) Then I look at the current situation...
Technical analysis = BULLISH
- BTC large timeframes bullish
- BTC daily chart bullish structure
- But currently at major target area ($120k)
Correlating factors = BULLISH
- Stocks in bull structure
- Gold in bull structure
- Dollar weak
- Macro mostly stable/improving
Fundamentals & on-chain = NEUTRAL/BULLISH
- Old metrics showing signs of late-stage bull market
- No signs of parabolic euphoria yet
- BTC supply on exchanges still dropping
- Govts & treasuries still buying
Market sentiment = NEUTRAL
- So far, price driven by institutions, not retail
- Degen risk just came back this month
- Wealth effect from stock ATHs
3) I take all that and think through possible outcomes:
A. Retail piles in after $120k break, BTC market cap exceeds NVDA above $4T. Parabolic top around $200k, then bear market with stocks.
B. Traps here, showing failed breakout above $120k (similar to 2021 double top). Premature bear market again. Forced liquidations of treasury companies?
C. Bull market sustains further than prior market cycles well into 2026 or beyond due to supply crunch & institutional buying (similar to gold's run from 2004 - 2011 after gold ETFs approved).
4) My thesis & how I'm trading:
- Bull market is in tact until it isn't, no glaring signs of a top yet
- Most important things to watch are - correlation to stocks, BTC exchange balances, BTC price action/structure
- I've sold enough BTC here to be comfortable if we get a trap/bear market
- Interested in bull market setups as long as bull price structure is in tact
- Risk on for alts until they trap/fail (watching BTC.D, OTHERS, old vs new shitcoins)
At the end of the day the most important question is:
"How can I manage my positions so I'd have NO REGRETS regardless of which outcome plays out?"
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Here are my top 2 possibilities for bitcoin this year:
1) there’s a perfect storm for bitcoin to have a supply “crisis” that sends it to $250k+ in parabolic fashion…
And it would be obvious the scenario is playing out in real time if the trigger goes off.
2) otherwise I think we see a “normal” trend around $120k-$130k then a reversal into a 2026 bear market
The caveat is a macro event could cause a trap on any ATH breakout (like today)…
So here’s my plan: buying dips and breakouts as long as the trend is in tact…
And taking profit at pre-defined targets.
Simplicity outperforms overactivity!
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🧵 Markets Are About to Explode — And Almost Everyone Is Positioned Wrong
The #MacroInvestingTool data is clear.
The dollar just triggered a macro slingshot that historically launches stocks and crypto into the stratosphere.
{thread} 👇

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