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TODAY US crude oil: +8% Brent crude oil: +8% European natural gas: +9% Heating oil: +5.7% Gasoline: +5.3%

US Treasury Secretary Bessent: The UAE and several others have requested swap lines.

*US 30-YEAR YIELD TOUCHES 5% FOR FIRST TIME SINCE JULY 2025 Now just 11 bps from a new 18-year high.

Brent crude, now trading at over $120, is at the highest price since mid-2022.

Early reports indicate that air defenses near US Embassy in the Green Zone in Baghdad, Iraq are working to intercept a number of drones flying over the area - OSINTdefender

Trump told Netanyahu that Israeli military should only take 'surgical' action in Lebanon, according to Axios report.

US crude oil now up 8.5%, as energy prices continue to surge.

July Brent crude now sitting above $110/bbl, a new Hormuz crisis high.

TRUMP: WILL KNOCK OUT REST OF MISSILES AND SYSTEMS IF WE DONT MAKE A DEAL WITH IRAN

POWELL: PEOPLE NOT SAYING WE NEED TO HIKE NOW

POWELL: IF WE NEED TO HIKE WE WILL SIGNAL AND DO

POWELL: FED INDEPENDENCE IS AT RISK

TRADERS NOW SEE RATE HIKE AS MORE LIKELY THAN RATE CUT THIS YEAR Wall Street traders now see a slightly higher chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike than a cut this year, following hawkish signals from policymakers. Interest-rate futures show an 11% chance of a hike, up from 5% earlier Wednesday and zero on Tuesday, while the odds of a rate cut sit around 2%. Although the Fed kept language suggesting cuts are more likely, three Fed presidents opposed it, and Chair Jerome Powell signaled it could be dropped soon as inflation remains persistent.

U.S. TO WITHDRAW AIRCRAFT CARRIER FROM MIDDLE EAST The Pentagon will send the USS Gerald R. Ford home in the coming days after a 10-month deployment, easing strain on its ~4,500 sailors. The move reduces U.S. military firepower in the region as Iran peace talks remain stalled.

POWELL: LITERALLY STAYING BECAUSE OF THE ACTIONS OF THE ADMINISTRATION POWELL: NO CHOICE BUT TO STAY

I’m afraid that if President Trump really wants to continue the blockade for months while minimising the impact on US consumers, there’s only a (bad) way: more SPR releases and/or oil export restrictions. The White House has consistently said neither is on the table. Let’s see.

Powell: "I will continue to serve as a governor for a period of time to be determined."

The dumb take is that Powell has lost control. The smart take is that this is the FOMC telling Warsh he wont have control...

NEW: There were *four* dissents on the Fed’s rate pause. Three bank presidents wanted to ditch the easing bias, and a governor dissented for a rate cut. The last meeting with four dissents was in 1992.

Stocks remain elevated despite higher much oil prices & higher yields in recent weeks, effectively pricing in an even greater growth boom ahead just as conditions are getting more challenging.