The Chairman's Ledger

New account, so here’s the short version. I started at JPM. Built a company. Sold it for $100M+. Served in places where risk was not theoretical. Now I spend my time looking for public companies sitting at the intersection of capital, technology, and strategic necessity. Defense tech. AI infrastructure. Space. Bitcoin. Critical infrastructure. I am not here to post 50 tickers and celebrate the ones that work. I am here to find the few names where the market is using the wrong frame. Old category. New asset. Messy transition. Right team. Massive demand pull. That is where the asymmetry usually lives.

@wolfgangkasper I must give credit where it is due. Getting a lot of these right.

This guy literally doesn’t miss I feel like this is a weekly occurrence, constantly hitting home runs Let’s get him to 100k!

@jiahanjimliu @PSInvestor I’m a fan.

I’m monitoring $KOPN. I don’t have a write up for this one since @PSInvestor is my analyst for this and there’s no need for me to writeup when @PSInvestor has a great one.

@MintedTools Exactly.

@ChairmansLedger the market loves giving people just enough rope to call themselves geniuses for a while.

A lot of us are fooled by randomness. Even me. Often. Being fooled by randomness is not just losing money. It’s winning and learning the wrong lesson. A stock runs, a trade works, a risky decision pays off, and suddenly everyone calls it skill. The thesis was perfect. The sizing was genius. The courage was obvious. Maybe. Or maybe liquidity bailed you out. Maybe timing bailed you out. Maybe the market rewarded bad behavior before punishing it later. Maybe you crossed the road blindfolded and made it to the other side. That is the dangerous part. The win is not the problem. The problem is building an identity around a result you did not actually earn. Winning can make you smarter, but only if you are honest about why you won. Otherwise it just makes you cocky. Markets eventually test the difference.

@VidarVikan Done deal.

@ChairmansLedger I charge a nickel.

Not long ago I sold my entire $NBIS position to double down on $IREN. Was that a good idea? Looking at price action alone, no. Do I regret it? Yes. Was it a mistake? No. $NBIS is actually one of my favorite companies in the world right now and I think they have a very bright future. There are execution obstacles, but I would not be surprised to see it 3-5x from here over the next couple of years. I just had to choose. And at this point in time, $IREN gives me the most conviction. To me, it has the most asymmetry, the most defensible moat, and most importantly, owns one of the scarcest full-stack assets in the market today. Power. Land. Time to compute. Speed. Execution. Global footprint and $NVDA validation in the purest sense. That is the stack I want maximum exposure to. Sometimes good investing is not choosing between good and bad. It is choosing between great and greater. I may be wrong on the timing. I may even be wrong on the choice. But I am very clear on the reason.

@Kmadd16 Amazing to hear this. I should’ve tagged him in the post. Required reading for all market participants.

@ChairmansLedger Love this, and love me some Taleb🏋️‍♂️. Once I grasped convexity it changed not only how I view investment, but how I go about my life. Seeking asymmetric gains and optionality. I've been investing for just under a year and doing well, but very mindful of 'genius in a bullmarket'

@chinoalemano Amazing response. Very very accurate.

@ChairmansLedger Losses force an audit. Wins waive it. So the flawed process survives, and gets sized up. Luck doesn't fool you once, it compounds. On any single trade, honesty can't separate skill from luck, only the sample can. The market's just been collecting that data the whole time.

@kmmashour Yeah, you know the teams well?

@ChairmansLedger NBIS team is the best there is, there is a huge gap in talent level between the two.

@PhotonBull If @retail_mourinho told me about $ONDS at $5, I would be a different kind of rich.

This guy kept pounding the table on $NBIS Also bought $ONDS at $5 and $ASTS at $20 last year and heavily multiplied his $ASTS position in the $60s last month It seems like he knows how to pick stocks Highly recommend following him

@dustinohallor I'll tell you a secret. You can regret something that wasn't a mistake.

@ChairmansLedger me reading the first four lines

@CKCapitalxx @hennycapital Dare I say the run has not even begun.

X is all over $AMPG. Absolutely madness the run we are having.

@_saac003 Nothing quite like a good fact.

@ChairmansLedger Facts

I want to point something out, and I mean no offense. But some of you need to hear this. People on X get way too caught up in a stock’s tribe, culture, community, heroes and villains. The stock does not know you. The stock does not care about you. And quite frankly, the price itself is just a temporary negotiation between fear, greed, liquidity and time. Stop caring about the bullshit. Be ruthless. Drop the fanboy behavior and focus on what actually matters. Money.

@hectoribarez76 Hopefully I am the last.

@ChairmansLedger Thanks for your advice. You are not the first person to tell me that,

Hopefully some of you paid attention to this one. $AMPG was never about chasing a small cap chart. It was the intersection that mattered. Space. Defense. SATCOM. Quantum. AI-RAN. Resilient comms. The market usually finds the hardware layer late. Sometimes the signal is there before the crowd is.

@Sandeman52 Nothing quite like being separated from your money. The only real separation anxiety I have.

If you expect your stock to go up or down short term with logic, you will be sorely disappointed. If you ask why something is down on a single day, and it bothers you, ETFs may be for you. If something moving up or down affects your emotions, you are in severe jeopardy of being separated from your money. Not being mean. I’m being real.

@StockAnalystPro @jiahanjimliu 🫡🤝

@jiahanjimliu @ChairmansLedger I added $AMPG $MRLN 2 weeks ago, felt its interesting ideas.

@ChairmansLedger right on time once again. $MRLN last week, $AMPG this week. Concentrated effort and decisiveness says off.

@x52xofficial Well that’s incorrect but I don’t see the relevance.

@ChairmansLedger A public company has a responsibility to increase shareholder value, at any cost

@WSM_97 I think that’s fair but it’s not an actual concern.

@ChairmansLedger Overhanging ATM of approx 1/3 the market cap ? 🤷🏻‍♂️ Feel the stock cannot truly run until (a) that ATM is closed and (b) they finally start showing some real AI revenue.

@PhotoFellaUA 🫡

@ChairmansLedger alpha and wisdom

Tomorrow marks 1 month on X. This has been a strange and very unlikely experiment. A few friends told me I would probably do well on here. I was skeptical, but curious enough to test it myself. A month ago, this account did not exist. Now 18k of you are here. Why? I think it's because people are not just looking for another stock picker or research analyst, especially behind a paywall. Research is not scarce. Judgment is. Knowing what is important and what is not. Knowing when to act and when to sit still. Knowing when fear is useful when it is not. That is what I bring here. Not because I am always right. I am not. I will get plenty wrong. But because my view of risk was built across very different arenas where bad decisions had consequences far beyond a red number on a screen. That experience is not easily replicated and likely has an expiry date on X. For now, I am enjoying this more than I expected, sharing how I see the world, what I own, what I’m watching, and how I think for as long as this experiment still makes sense. If that helps a few people manage emotion, think more clearly, and make better decisions under pressure, that is a good use of this account. To those who have been here in good faith, thank you. Just remember. Information is everywhere. Judgment is the bottleneck. Act accordingly. - TCL 🫡

You’re framing it as “which company is better.” That wasn’t really the point of the post. I like $NBIS as I said. The question for me was where the asymmetry is greater from here, and where my next marginal dollar has the best chance of compounding. Sometimes the better company is not the better stock. And sometimes the harder decision is selling something you like because you think something else can make more money.

@ChairmansLedger $NBIS all day for me. Not even close. The difference in talent and quality of C suite is enormous However it does not mean that there’s no money to be made in $IREN It is just that I can sleep more soundly holding $NBIS

@jswanson1222 @jiahanjimliu If you do, we’re in it together but I have to say one thing. Never outsource your own judgement to a mug like me, or anyone else for that matter. 🫡

@ChairmansLedger @jiahanjimliu My brother, I’m contemplating this same rotation