Falconfunded

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Brent at $80: Did the market buy the Iran deal twice? Brent Crude Falls Back Near $80 as Iran Deal Impact Appears Priced In Brent crude oil prices have declined to around $80 per barrel, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) near $77. This marks a reversal of the premium gained over the past four months amid heightened tensions and conflict involving Iran.

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Consolidating above 161.00 amid growing intervention risks USD/JPY Holds Firm Above 161 Amid Intensifying Intervention Concerns The USD/JPY pair is consolidating around 161.30, maintaining its highest level since early 2024. This marks a continuation of recent strength in the US dollar against the Japanese yen, extending well beyond the threshold that previously prompted intervention attempts in April.

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Swiss Franc: SNB steady with FX intervention option – Nomura SNB Holds Policy Rate Steady, Signals Readiness for FX Intervention The Swiss National Bank maintained its policy rate at 0.00% in June, keeping monetary conditions unchanged. Additionally, the SNB emphasized its increased willingness to intervene in foreign exchange markets to manage the Swiss Franc’s strength.

WTI holds losses near $75.50 on easing supply concerns WTI Oil Extends Losses Near $75.50 Amid Easing Supply Concerns West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices hovered around $75.60 per barrel for the fifth consecutive day during European trading on Wednesday. The price decline reflects cautious investor sentiment as markets digest the potential impact of a forthcoming US-Iran peace deal.

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Forecasting the upcoming week: Fed, BoJ, BoE and RBA decisions take center stage Dollar Edges Lower Ahead of Busy Central Bank Week The US Dollar Index (DXY) slipped 0.27% during the past week, trading near the 99.80 mark as investors positioned themselves ahead of key policy decisions. Attention is focused on upcoming meetings from the Fed, BoJ, BoE, and RBA, which could set the tone for currency market direction.

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Fed: Warsh era starts with cautious stance and delayed cuts – Commerzbank Fed’s Warsh Era Begins with Cautious Outlook and No Immediate Rate Cuts Kevin Warsh’s first Fed meeting maintained a cautious stance, with no rate cuts expected as inflation remains elevated and the labor market shows strength. This approach signals a patient Fed, balancing inflation risks against economic resilience.

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European Central Bank: War risks tilt policy hawkish – Rabobank ECB May Adopt Hawkish Stance Amid Middle East War Risks, Says Rabobank Rabobank’s Global Strategist Michael Every highlights that the European Central Bank is likely to prioritize tightening monetary policy due to elevated war risks in the Middle East. The strategist suggests that the ECB perceives greater threats from inaction than from overtly hawkish moves.

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BoC expected to keep interest rate unchanged as prices stay elevated and growth slows BoC Poised to Keep Interest Rate Steady Amid Elevated Inflation and Slowing Growth The Bank of Canada is expected to maintain its policy rate at 2.25%, marking the fifth straight meeting without a change. Despite persistent inflationary pressures, economic growth is showing signs of weakening, prompting a cautious stance.

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Oil: War-risk pricing holds steady – Rabobank Oil Prices Steady Despite Middle East Escalation Oil prices remained largely unchanged following renewed tensions between Israel and Iran in the Middle East. Despite the sharp escalation, markets quickly returned to a risk-neutral stance, reflecting resilience in current pricing.

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