Peter Weldon & Co

Worst NHS crisis of my lifetime, dire economic situation and the public policy discussion today is about a maths teaching plan for the mid to late 2020s which we don’t have the teachers to deliver.

How could we have known that the pork markets lady would not have been good?

The clowns and charlatans who gave us Johnson and Truss cannot be allowed to choose the next one. General Election now

Good thing Cameron called that referendum to settle the internal rifts in the Conservative Party or things would have gotten ugly

This new season of British politics has started very strongly. So many twists in so few episodes. But I’m worried the scriptwriters are going to mess it up and somehow write in Bran Stark as PM.

Another big change from Hunt: the language. From ‘of course tax cuts help the better off more! The priority is growth!’ since early September to ‘our priority is the most vulnerable’ today. Huge rhetorical reversal alongside the tax one.

New subtitle

Lots of British economic gloom about. I was asked if there was any better news/hope on the radio yesterday. Not an easy question. But - this energy price crisis *might* at least be a catalyst for doing Net Zero investment that we should have been doing anyway faster.

Alongside liberals, graduates & remainers I’d add the small but interesting constituency of “20- and 30-something policy wonks who are right of centre on all economic questions and really should be committed Tories but would quite like to own a house or flat in London one day”.

What does it all mean for fiscal policy? That easy. If BJ survives: expect tax cuts. That’s the price of survival. If BJ is ousted: expect tax cuts. That’s the price of victory.

It never ceases to amaze me that a man who sold get rich quick schemes on the internet under a selection of false names can become a Secretary of State in Conservative governments.

Off to @RoyalAlbertHall to join #joolsholland @JoolsBand and legends including Paul Weller and other incredible, world class musicians. Obvs i'm in the stand-up section but in my head, on a night like this, I am Shirley Bassey. All in aid of @ProstateUK #raisetheroof

I am just about at the point when I think “1970s” analogies start to make sense for the UK outlook. Not in terms of strikes or wage-price dynamics but in terms of a general breakdown in the traction of macro-policy and a sense that there are no good options.

Come for the economic history, stay for the accent.

The rise of high-tax Britain – this is an excellent feature by @DuncanWeldon on the political and economic drivers of higher taxes (including the Tories' elderly voter base). newstatesman.com/politics/uk-po…

Just read this book by @DuncanWeldon. It is outstanding! Written in a chatty way but contains a remarkable depth and intelligence. Every economics student should read it... waterstones.com/book/two-hundr…

Amazon today thought I might be interested in the paperback. And, much as I love the cover, it isn’t out late May.

So, the Prime Minister's line is essentially "all of my staff have being lying to me and I was unaware of a party in my own house". Cool.

All the action in UK economic policy in near future is in fiscal not monetary policy. But the target, @DuncanWeldon argues, is actually house prices & Tory voters. Check out this very interesting Value Added substack. For graph h/t @resfoundation duncanweldon.substack.com/p/britains-mac…

New on Value Added. We need to talk more about fiscal policy. duncanweldon.substack.com/p/the-fiscal-p…