Yuriy Ivanoff ری ٹویٹ کیا
This is pure gold.
Marc Andreessen's custom system prompt that makes any LLM 10x smarter.
You'll want to save this:
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Yuriy Ivanoff
273 posts
Yuriy Ivanoff ری ٹویٹ کیا
Anthropic makes more money than OpenAI.
$323.5 million/day. And most people using Claude still do this:
1. Re-explain who they are. Every. Single. Conversation.
2. Send 30 follow-ups that burn 31x more credits each time.
3. Type their prompts when speaking gets 4x better results.
The people switching to Claude are not getting better results because Claude is smarter.
They're getting better results because they set it up once. Properly.
3 files. 1 folder. 20 minutes.
Claude never asks who you are again.
I wrote a (completely) free guide to set up Claude the way the fastest teams are using it right now, for people who switched but never set it up.
Here: x.com/rubenhassid/st…
Ruben Hassid@rubenhassid
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Yuriy Ivanoff ری ٹویٹ کیا
> claude just dropped managed agents today
> you describe what you want in one sentence
> 4 clicks later, your agent is running in its own cloud container
> it keeps working when you sleep
> it recovers from crashes on its own
> the barrier to shipping agents just went from months to minutes
Sharbel@sharbel
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Yuriy Ivanoff ری ٹویٹ کیا
The reason this four year cycle top for Bitcoin "feels different" is because this is the first major top BTC has had during a late business cycle environment.
It explains why there was no alt season, why BTC has been bleeding to SPX, and why SPX has been bleeding to Gold.
We got a glimpse of this type of environment in 2019 but then the pandemic causes a crisis which reset the business cycle. It also happened during the middle of a four year cycle for BTC, rather than at the end of one.
This cycle has been more brutal because there has not been a crisis to allow the business cycle to end and for things to reset.
So the business cycle keeps on limping along while high risk assets continue to bleed out to lower risk assets.
And realistically we should not expect that trend to change until the business cycle ends.
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Yuriy Ivanoff ری ٹویٹ کیا
Unemployment rate rising
Geopolitical conflicts rising
Price of oil rising
Inflation rising
Airport travel collapsing
Bitcoin dropping
Stocks dropping
All business cycles must come to an end, and it usually ends with a recession.
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Yuriy Ivanoff ری ٹویٹ کیا
For years, Gold bugs laughed at Bitcoiners on 30% drops and said "sOmE sToRe Of VaLuE"
Then Gold dropped 30% and Bitcoiners said the same thing back.
The truth is that whether you bought BTC or Gold in late 2017, your return is about the same today.
But I guess it's more fun for both sides to just throw shade back and forth
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Yuriy Ivanoff ری ٹویٹ کیا
Now that the ETHFI unlocks are over and the CLARITY act is inching closer to a senate hearing, probably worth considering what the leading onchain neobank could be worth in 3-5 years.
Sam@0xCryptoSam
1) @ether_fi has evolved from a liquid restaking protocol into a full-stack crypto neobank, spanning staking, vaults, and payments. We valued ETHFI across bear, base, and bull scenarios. Our base case implies a 2028 FDV of $925M. Here's what we found 🧵
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Yuriy Ivanoff ری ٹویٹ کیا
Yuriy Ivanoff ری ٹویٹ کیا
According to the markets, there is now a higher probability of a rate hike than a rate cut through June 2027
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Yuriy Ivanoff ری ٹویٹ کیا
Business cycles have a way of repeating themselves, despite many feeling like this time is different.
Benjamin Cowen@benjamincowen
Most business cycles of the past have ended shortly after the price of oil spiked. Rising geopolitical conflict threatens to cause that once again. If oil starts moving higher, it usually marks the beginning of the end of the business cycle.
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Yuriy Ivanoff ری ٹویٹ کیا
Yuriy Ivanoff ری ٹویٹ کیا
DXY starting to move up just as it did in early 2018.
This threatens to tighten global liquidity even further, which will continue to be a macro headwind for risk assets
Benjamin Cowen@benjamincowen
I guess this is the bull case for DXY
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Yuriy Ivanoff ری ٹویٹ کیا
Weakness in stocks is continuing to mount. Remember crypto will stay weak until the Fed's hand is forced. But it won't be forced with stocks at all time highs.
Benjamin Cowen@benjamincowen
Is this view is correct, it would eventually be bullish for crypto, but probably not until later this year. Basically crypto stays weak until stocks drop and makes the Fed do something. Since metals dropped and SPX broke down against Gold, there is a high chance stocks start dropping soon. Short term bearish for crypto, but likely good buying opportunities in crypto later this year
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Yuriy Ivanoff ری ٹویٹ کیا
To be clear:
Oil is not up *because* of the business cycle.
Oil going up in a late business cycle environment poses a risk of ending the business cycle, especially when the reason it is going up is not because of demand.
Benjamin Cowen@benjamincowen
Oil is up another 8% today. Remember the rise of oil in a late business cycle environment leads to the beginning of the end of the business cycle.
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Yuriy Ivanoff ری ٹویٹ کیا
If Bitcoin sees no counter-trend relief rally, and instead continues the downtrend to sub $50k (into March/April), the possibility this type of action induces an early 4 Year Cycle low is real.
Again just possibilities, but extreme price action can/does force premature ends to cycle. Those price levels, regardless of where we think the low forms from a time perspective, should be too good to pass up, accumulate.
Then what you see during the "expected timing - Q3" is a retrace and only partial test of the lows.
Stay flexible, multiple paths. Focus on accumulation opportunities now, not doomer posts.
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Yuriy Ivanoff ری ٹویٹ کیا
In midterm years, Bitcoin is typically weak in February, sees some renewed interest in March, then tends to drop again into April/May.
However, trying to time every countertrend rally is difficult, which is why capital preservation is often the wiser move in midterm years.
Benjamin Cowen@benjamincowen
When looking at Bitcoin YTD ROI in midterm years, Bitcoin usually is weak for a good portion of February, with slight a bounce into early March, then a continued decline into April/May
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Yuriy Ivanoff ری ٹویٹ کیا
I have mentioned this chart a few times in the past, but it does really go to show just how extreme things got the last few years.
The chart is SPX/(UNRATE^2)*USIRYY*USINTR
Unravelling things after extreme euphoria is never an easy process.
As things have been unwound over the last several years, most markets have gone higher on hopes of a soft landing. But there has generally been a flight to quality within each asset class as people buy what they better understand and think has value long-term, rather than short-term speculative investments.
Unwinding euphoria has never been an easy or a fun process, but it is a process we have been going through for the last several years.
As liquidity and monetary policy has stayed relatively tight the last several years, it has led to a general flight to quality within each asset class.
This is why BTC outperformed most other things in crypto and why the MAG7 generally led the S&P 500.
Starting out far on the risk curve, altcoin weakness was observed first as they bled to BTC for years.
Then as the BTC bull market came to an end, BTC was noticeably bleeding to SPX.
Then it became apparent that SPX was bleeding to Gold (which it already had been but more people started to notice).
Notice how we are basically just working our way down the risk curve?
As this chart falls back down to prior support levels, it represents us going back to normal times.
What I love about this chart is that you can clearly see each business cycle and how every single one of them ended in a recession before the next business cycle began.
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Yuriy Ivanoff ری ٹویٹ کیا
If you normalize this chart with respect to M2, you get a cleaner look at the current late business cycle environment.
Within the next 2-3 years, the current business cycle should end and a new one begin.
Until then, select deployment of capital and preservation is warranted
Benjamin Cowen@benjamincowen
I have mentioned this chart a few times in the past, but it does really go to show just how extreme things got the last few years. The chart is SPX/(UNRATE^2)*USIRYY*USINTR Unravelling things after extreme euphoria is never an easy process. As things have been unwound over the last several years, most markets have gone higher on hopes of a soft landing. But there has generally been a flight to quality within each asset class as people buy what they better understand and think has value long-term, rather than short-term speculative investments. Unwinding euphoria has never been an easy or a fun process, but it is a process we have been going through for the last several years. As liquidity and monetary policy has stayed relatively tight the last several years, it has led to a general flight to quality within each asset class. This is why BTC outperformed most other things in crypto and why the MAG7 generally led the S&P 500. Starting out far on the risk curve, altcoin weakness was observed first as they bled to BTC for years. Then as the BTC bull market came to an end, BTC was noticeably bleeding to SPX. Then it became apparent that SPX was bleeding to Gold (which it already had been but more people started to notice). Notice how we are basically just working our way down the risk curve? As this chart falls back down to prior support levels, it represents us going back to normal times. What I love about this chart is that you can clearly see each business cycle and how every single one of them ended in a recession before the next business cycle began.
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Yuriy Ivanoff ری ٹویٹ کیا
Excluding stablecoins, #BTC dominance continues rising.
Including stables, BTC dominance has dropped because stablecoin dominance has gone higher
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Yuriy Ivanoff ری ٹویٹ کیا
CT tends to find narratives to support price action, especially if price goes in a direction that they did not expect.
It is common to want to take out your anger on others, and I think everyone generally struggles with that at times (including me).
Now many people blame Jane Street for the selloff, as people tend to want someone to blame.
In midterm years, BTC Is often weak into February, some slight renewed strength into March, then lower as the year goes on. We do not need to search for a narrative to explain every price movement. It is honestly just a massive waste of time and energy.
There is much more to life than being mad at people because things did not go your way.
Think about the empty boat mindset.
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