CD

LOSERS … I know losers all too well: as a budget nerd, I am one But politicians hate losers, because losers change who they vote for That’s why lots of sensible change never happens, as it would create losers Now layer that over today As the Treasurer rightly says, the challenges of the moment are “a reason for more reform, not less … a reason to go further, not slower” Yet current circumstances are making families lose – they’re petrol costs have gone up, and their food, gas and electricity costs will eventually follow And the political challenge of change is that it creates losers – a group who are always way grumpier than any winners are happy: · So a reform budget is an unpopular budget even if its changes don’t change the overall budget balance · And a reform budget that also improves the budget balance is a two-time loser – it creates losers from its changes, and it creates losers from its savings · By the way, that’s why economists argue for reform during the good times – because reforms during hard times are even harder to achieve politically That backdrop explains the tug-of-war underway in Canberra right now · The economic hard heads point out an enormous need for change is here at the same time as a floundering opposition means there’s an enormous political opportunity for change · But the political hard heads are worried that reforms – especially reforms that save money in overall terms – would create lots of losers atop a new groundswell of losers due to the war in the Middle East Politics being politics, regardless of who wins Canberra’s tug-of-war, the resulting budget on May 12 will get called a triumph of reform I hope we do get genuine reforms. Australia has changed our policies far too little for far too long, and our budget is covered in barnacles: silly spending, terrible taxes Let’s hope our political class rises to this moment

The biggest illusion in the Iran war is that the United States controls escalation. It doesn’t. Iran, Israel, Russia, and global energy markets are now driving the conflict. That’s the Escalation Trap. It’s starting to look like the dynamic that trapped Lyndon B. Johnson in Vietnam.

let me get this straight a team will not be playing in the FIFA World Cup because they are currently being bombed by the FIFA Peace Prize winner

America launched its biggest war in the Middle East in 20 years, evidently, on the advice of two real estate guys and a former Fox News host……

NOW, RIGHT NOW, IS THE TIME ... Lovely article by @swrighteconomy - Australia needs change on a bunch of fronts - And the political landscape has never been easier to navigate Demand, meet supply ... And let's get this party started

Former Middle East adviser at the US Department of Defense, Jasmine El-Gamal, laying down some uncomfortable truths…..

Still trying to imagine what would happen if a President Biden—or a President Harris—started a war with Iran with no clear objective or timeline, said American troops were going to die because hey, that's war! and that they didn't rule out putting American boots on the ground...

If you mentioned the FIFA Peace Prize...congrats, you made the Overworked Twitter Joke of the Week.

bombs Iran 9 days later

Trump and Netanyahu seem to be totally unconcerned about the human beings - on all sides - who will suffer.

I suspect historians will be talking about this for decades to come, and I’d be surprised if they end up saying positive things.

So instead of saving many hundreds of thousands of children’s lives with humanitarian aid, we taxpayers finance an instrument to advance Trump’s Nobel Peace Prize campaign.

It annoys me that so many people are under the impression that this guy, Steven Bradbury, is some subpar goober who lucked his way into gold. That could not be further from the truth. This is one of the most satisfying victories in the history of the Olympics if you know the full backstory. This medal final was during his fourth Olympics, in Salt Lake City in 2002. Earlier in his career, he was among the best athletes in the world in this specific event, the 1000 meter short-track men's speed skate. But despite his talent, he just had some of the shittiest luck in the sport. We're talking a decade of shit luck. In the '94 Winter Olympics, he was considered the odds-on favorite to take gold, but he fell in his heat after getting illegally pushed by an opponent (who was later disqualified). He didn't get a re-do. That was it. He got shoved by some asshole, and his Olympics was over. Then in the '98 Winter Olympics, he was a favorite to at least medal in the same event but got caught up in a collision that wasn't his fault and failed to advance. In 1994, he got his thigh sliced open by a competitor's skate during a race, which required 111 stitches and 18 months of recovery time. In 2000, he broke his neck during training because a skater in front of him fell and tripped him up. That required a bunch of screws and plates being inserted into his skull and back and chest. And doctors told him that he should stop skating. But he didn't wanna give up. It meant too much to him. So, there he was in Salt Lake City in 2002, past his prime, a walking erector set, going up against opponents who were faster and younger and in their prime. He manages to win his heat and advance to the quarterfinal but then has the shit luck (yet again) of having to go up against the best two athletes in the quarterfinal and only the top two advance. He finishes third and thinks: "Damn, I gave it my best shot." But then, the second place finisher is disqualified, so Bradbury gets to advance to the semifinal. Now, at this point, he's thinking: Well, shit, I'm not as fast as these younger guys, and I got a bad habit of getting taken out by crashes that aren't my fault. So, he consults with the Australian national coach, Ann Zhang, and they decide that he should hang back from the pack and hope the pack crashes. That is a perfectly valid strategy. If you crash, you lose, but speed skaters risk crashing to gain an advantage in order to win. It may not feel exciting, but it is a valid strategy and just as risky: avoid crashes entirely and hope that pays off. It paid off in the semifinal: the pack, including the defending Olympic champion, jostled too much and crashed. Bradbury wins and advances. So, he's improbably in the final and takes the same approach, and it works: the entire pack jostles too much and crashes, and Bradbury's risk of hanging back pays off. This victory was not some un-athletic schlub lucking his way into gold. It was a journeyman athlete who never gave up and played smart after a career of shitty luck and finally got his due after it being snatched away from him so many times. Hands down, one of my favorite Olympics stories.

Every Gen Z is legally required to watch Best in Show today.

They called Joe Biden a tyrant because he wanted to forgive some student loans.

RIP to a legend.

I’ve covered authoritarian regimes all around the world. We know how we got here: 1. A Supreme Court that has given the Executive almost unchecked power 2. A broken political party system where the party in power refuses to act as a check on the executive and a leaderless (for now) opposition 3. A federal government that has been gutted of independent levers of power 4. A President who seemingly believes he has total authority to use crushing federal power and is emboldened and enabled by his cabinet. 5. An activated and angry civilian population that has no trust in institutions. 6. The use of federal forces in defiance of the will of states 7. A business and elite class that is largely willing to bear the cost of the chaos. 8. A weakened independent Press and an expanding propaganda network that profits from partisan alliances on the left and right.

I understand all situations are different. But India refusing to travel to Pakistan for CT 2025 and the ICC creating a hybrid model to work around. Compared to Bangladesh refusing to travel to India and the ICC saying put up or get booted - has made me sad.

Threatening war because you didn't get a peace prize is a new one.