Peter Strachan

NEW: Why does gas set the price of electricity – and is there an alternative? Make yourself a tea (or grab a beer??) and enjoy my Friday longread on marginal pricing, ideas for market reform – & how to break the link btwn gas & power prices for good carbonbrief.org/qa-why-does-ga… 1/8

"Wind power supplied large parts of Europe" - and this is how it could evolve for entire Europe for a full year for all energy demand: doi.org/10.1016/j.ener…

WindWaterSolar rising more, gas falling more 20 straight and 47/70 >100% WWS days for part of the day, averaging 3 hours per day among all days in 2026. Demand down 3.5% v '23 and 0.5% v '25 WWS up 22% v '23 Gas down 60.5% v '23 Batteries up 324% v '23

1/ New research from @UniLUT shows how uneven natural resource distribution shapes regional #EROI during the energy transition. doi.org/10.1029/2025EF…. 🌍 Can regions transition to sustainable #NetZero energy systems without triggering a #RenewableEnergy-based #resourcecurse?

3/ 🆕The key novelty lies in linking regional #PowerSystemModelling with a systemwide #EROI framework, allowing us to test whether a sustainable #energy transition is feasible regionally under real resource and policy constraints, without encountering RE-based #resourcecurse.

4/ The analysis covers 9 world regions and 9 deep decarbonisation #regionalscenarios to 2050, including #LUT-Best Policy Scenarios, accelerated transitions, #Teske/DLR pathways, and #IEA scenarios. Details on the scenarios: doi.org/10.1016/j.apen…

5/ Results show that no regional #EROI falls below 10 in the power sector, a commonly cited global viability threshold, indicating that regional #EnergyTransitions are techno-economically feasible even under constrained natural resources.

6/ ⚡Low-cost #renewabletechnologies, particularly 🌞 #solarPV and 💨wind power, consistently dominate the energy mix, whereas other natural energy resources play a secondary role in shaping long-term trends in #EROI.

7/ As variable renewable energy shares increase, enabling technologies (#batteries🔋, #hydrogen, gas storage, #electrolysis) expand rapidly, leading to a temporary decline 📉 in systemwide #EROI during the transition phase.

8/ Regional #EROI trends in #IEAscenarios are mostly stable by 2050, but some regions face critical shifts. #Europe declines early due to coal → gas & nuclear, later rises with renewables. #MENA rises as gas shifts to PV & nuclear. Other regions show minor changes.

9/ #RegionalEROI trends in #TeskeDLR scenarios show major shifts. #Eurasia declines sharply to 14 by 2050 due to geothermal expansion & reduced gas. #MENA stays above 20 until late stage. #SAARC drops ~6 pts to ~12. Other regions show minor or gradual changes.

10/ #AnnualisedEnergyFlow analysis reveals temporary stresses during rapid deployment that are invisible in lifetime averages. #MENA & #SAARC may see short-term declines from rising #solarPV & #wind capacities in the LUT-BPS #100RE transition but overall trends rise before 2050.

11/ #TeskeDLR scenarios converge to moderate #AnnualisedEnergyFlow (15–20) by 2050, with 1.5°C requiring earlier, sharper adjustments. #IEA‑SDS improves gradually. #SouthAmerica stays high from hydropower, #Eurasia declines sharply, #SubSaharanAfrica trend reflect declining coal.

12/ Regional differences matter 🌍. Hydropower-rich #SouthAmerica achieves the highest #EROI, while regions with rapid #solarPV expansion see sharper short-term declines due to storage needs 🔋.

14/ 🔑This study finds no evidence of a #RE-basedresourcecurse ❌. Regional EROI outcomes depend far more on strategic technology choices in prioritising #RenewableEnergy technologies than on natural resource abundance 💎.

15/ 📊Main finding: Regional #EROI trends are shaped more by energy transition pathways than by uneven resource distribution. Prioritising low-cost #RenewableEnergy is key for a net-zero, cost-effective transition, while also reducing the risk of a renewable resource curse.

16/ 🧩By linking energy system modelling, LCA, and EROI, the paper provides a replicable and transparent framework for assessing whether #regionalnet-zerotransitions can sustain future energy needs.

17/ 📘Along the full article doi.org/10.1016/j.spc.… Includes extensive supplementary data supporting regional EROI projections and long-term energy transition insights. Authors welcome #scientificengagement 🧠 on #EROI, #EnergyTransition & #NetZero systems.

18/ Listen to Uneven Distribution of Natural Energy Resources Impacts on Systemwide Energy Return on Investment paper in the podcast on our research results: youtu.be/Wcxhg95aptQ this is AI-generated using Google NotebookLM.

Climate breakdown driven extreme weather getting started early in 2026 It's going to be a long, hot, deadly year theguardian.com/australia-news…