Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش@citrinowicz
The Iranian regime has become more ideologically rigid, more internally fragmented, and less capable of producing coherent, unified decision-making.
These structural characteristics significantly complicate any negotiating framework with Tehran. When coupled with Iran’s growing perception of strategic gains, the likelihood of securing a durable and enforceable agreement is exceedingly low.
This is, in part, a consequence of policy that sought to weaken or destabilize the regime while simultaneously attempting engagement. The removal of key figures who once functioned as central nodes of authority has further diffused decision-making, making it harder to identify reliable counterparts or ensure compliance.
Under these conditions, U.S. policymakers, particularly under the Trump administration, face two highly unfavorable strategic options. The first is to sustain a protracted conflict with no clear end-state, imposing significant economic and security costs on the international system while offering no guarantee of regime capitulation.
The second is to move toward a unilateral de-escalation, potentially anchored in limited understandings around critical chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz, or to disengage altogether, accepting the risks associated with an emboldened Iran.
This further underscores that what has taken place in Iran is not regime moderation, but regime transformation, one that has made it more radical, not less. Iran today is more ideologically entrenched and strategically assertive than in the past.
Iran is not Venezuela. Any policy framework that draws parallels between the two reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of the nature of the Iranian regime, its ideological foundations, its regional posture, and its strategic calculus.
Policymakers who continue to operate under such assumptions risk misreading both Iran’s intentions and its thresholds, leading to flawed policy design and ineffective outcomes.
Neither option offers a clear pathway to achieving long-term U.S. strategic objectives in the region.
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