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UK taxes on wages rose more than in any other rich country in 2025, says report ft.trib.al/7N8TJmf

🇪🇺 Brutal drop in consumer confidence the past couple of months. And the market discounts ECB hikes. Would be a massive policy mistake...

talks suspended, ceasefire now indefinite. trump edging closer to getting out of the war irrespective of outcomes in the region.

In line with Lagarde’s comments about being between the baseline and the adverse, ERZ6 seems to be erring too much in favour of hikes still. Adding a long here ap-fx.co.uk/p/the-ecbs-ins…

NETANYAHU: WE HAVE REMOVED THE THREAT OF THE IRANIAN REGIME THAT TARGETED OUR EXISTENCE.

No one is talking about the international trade anymore with the S&P 500 less than 1% away from all-time highs. And yet $EEM is beating $SPY off the March 30th lows. On an absolute and relative basis, emerging market stocks are outperforming American stocks over the last year. A new secular trend is developing -- one that will catch most traders and investors off guard. I am writing about this today in the free newsletter. Sign up for free in the next tweet.

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷🇵🇰 BREAKING: The Supreme Leader gave the green light. Vance flying to Islamabad Tuesday morning... The internal struggle in Tehran played out exactly as I'd been tracking. The IRGC pressured the negotiators to hold a firmer line and refuse talks until the blockade ended. Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey pushed Iran to attend anyway. The team waited for a final decision from Mojtaba Khamenei. He said go. Trump effectively extended the ceasefire by a day, now expiring Wednesday evening instead of Tuesday. That's the entire window. One day in Islamabad to either produce a framework or watch the bombs resume. Vance, Witkoff, and Kushner all flying in. Same team as round one. Different stakes entirely. The first time around, the ceasefire was holding and both sides had time. This time, the U.S. has a blockade running, Iran is reclaiming missile launchers, and the deadline is hours away. Source: Axios

INSIGHTS: 🇺🇸 Three liquidity injections. Same week. Fed injected $5,058,000,000 before market open. Treasury released $90,000,000,000 via TGA. Now the largest Treasury debt buyback in history. $15,000,000,000. Governments don't inject this much liquidity for no reason. They inject it when something is breaking. Or when they're preparing for something big. The U.S. Digital Asset Reserve announcement is coming within weeks. Connect the dots.

I think the best way to understand this: * If there was no chance of a deal it’d just be Witkoff and Kushner. * If it’s low chance of a deal and high humiliation chance, they’d send Vance. * If it was a high chance of a good outcome but still negotiations, but low risk of humiliation, they’d send Rubio. * If it was a done deal (or once the deal is ready) they’d send Trump so he can’t get the bragging rights. It’s like we know the military updates are: * Trump if it’s something good * Hegseth press conference if updates are bad. Trump doesn’t send anyone else to get the credit.

$EEM is moving...

THE UK IS "ON THE VERGE" OF RECESSION, WITH UP TO 250,000 JOBS AT RISK BY MID-2027 DUE TO THE IRAN CONFLICT, ACCORDING TO IBT.

BREAKING: Money market funds posted -$172.2 billion in outflows last week, the largest weekly drawdown on record. This is +320% above the average April weekly outflow of -$410 billion seen over the last 4 years. As a result, the 4-week moving average of withdrawals is down to -$30.0 billion, the largest since early 2024. Some of the outflows were redirected into other assets, with +$11.3 billion flowing into equity funds and +$7.9 billion into bond funds last week. At the same time, gold and crypto funds each attracted +$1.2 billion in inflows. The move was also likely tax-related, as April typically sees an increase in cash withdrawals for tax payments. Market flows are shifting again.

Security lockdown in Islamabad and Rawalpindi looks far tighter and more expansive this time than the last US-Iran round. Something much bigger could be unfolding this time.

TRUMP SAYS WITKOFF HEADED TO PAKISTAN FOR TALKS TUESDAY: FOX

BREAKING: Chancellor Rachel Reeves has called in the bosses of Britain's five biggest banks, as well as the CEO of the Nationwide building society, for talks on Wednesday as she grapples with the deepening economic fallout of the war in Iran @SkyNews

Iranian President: The continuation of the conflict will not be in the interest of any party, and we are not seeking to expand the scope of the war.

IMORTANT Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will lead the US side in the second round. Notably, JD Vance is not part of the delegation. Here is the reason: if the Vice President were in Islamabad, President Trump would not be able to travel to Pakistan. US security protocols do not allow both the President and Vice President to be on foreign soil at the same time. This, in turn, leaves a realistic possibility that Trump could visit Pakistan, especially if a deal is finalized.

EXECUTIVES FROM BARCLAYS, HSBC, LLOYDS BANKING GROUP, NATWEST GROUP, SANTANDER UK HAVE BEEN ASKED TO ATTEND MEETING WITH REEVES ON WED- SKY NEWS

$VIX fell more than -40% in the past 13 days Historically, similar declines saw $SPX higher every time, 1 year later Average gain: +15% Max drawdown: -10.2%

🇷🇴 Romania : as a famous French philosopher said : « non mais allo quoi ». Romania is now trading in line with Ivy…