Jason Garner

$BRK.B $FFH.TO Berkshire Hathaway’s market cap is 28x larger than Fairfax Financial, yet its $176B float is only 4.5x larger. Meaning Fairfax’s insurance float actually exceeds its entire market value, while Berkshire trades at over 6x its own.

@mr_deepvalue All interested in this period should read @brettgardner_10 book on his early years!

The version of Warren Buffett nobody talks about: Concentrated. Leveraged. Deep value. 75.8% return on assets in a single year. This is how he averaged 50% per year early on. Almost no one studies this phase.

@Garnet_2203 Problem is the Singapore model doesn’t scale well in bigger democracies. Singapore is 7 million people and a soft authoritarian state. LKY is a hero, nation builder. That said the model implemented in Canada or India would/has failed.

We’re lucky Pierre Poilievre isn’t Prime Minister. And let me be very clear what he’s saying about Singapore is completely backwards. Singapore’s success didn’t come from “less government.” It came from: • Heavy regulation • Government-controlled housing • Strict enforcement of rules Everything Conservatives in Canada fight against. So which is it? Because you don’t get to pretend you want Singapore while opposing everything that makes it work.

@alexbhturnbull @DrJStrategy this boomer's takes are horrendous. increasingly so too.

Food for thought. Trump, Hormuz and the End of the Free Ride For half a century, Western strategists have known that the Strait of Hormuz is the acute point where energy, sea power and political will intersect. That knowledge is not in dispute. What is new in this war with Iran is that the United States, under Donald Trump, has chosen not to rush to “solve” the problem. In Hegelian terms, he is refusing an easy synthesis in order to force the underlying contradiction to the surface. The old thesis was simple: the US guarantees open sea lanes in the Gulf, and everyone else structures their economies and politics around that free insurance. Europe and the UK embraced ambitious green policies, ran down hard‑power capabilities and lectured Washington on multilateral virtue, secure in the assumption that American carriers would always appear off Hormuz. The political class behaved as if the American security guarantee were a law of nature, not a contingent choice. Their conduct today is closer to Chamberlain than Churchill: temporising, issuing statements, hoping the storm will pass without a fundamental reordering of their responsibilities. Trump’s antithesis is to withhold the automatic guarantee at the moment of maximum stress. Militarily, the US can break Iran’s residual ability to contest the Strait; that is not the binding constraint. The point is to delay that act. By allowing a closure or semi‑closure to bite, Trump ensures that the immediate pain is concentrated in exactly the jurisdictions that have most conspicuously free‑ridden on US power: the EU and the UK. Their industries, consumers and energy‑transition assumptions are exposed. In that context, his reported blunt message to European and British leaders, you need the oil out of the Strait more than we do; why don’t you go and take it? Is not a throwaway line. It is the verbalisation of the antithesis. It openly reverses the traditional presumption that America will carry the burden while its allies emote from the sidelines. In this dialectic, the prize is not simply the reopening of a chokepoint. The prize is a reordered system in which the United States effectively arbitrages and controls the global flow of oil. A world in which US‑aligned production in the Americas plus a discretionary capability to secure,or not secure, Hormuz places Washington at the centre of the hydrocarbon chessboard. For that strategic end, a rapid restoration of the old status quo would be counterproductive. A quick, surgical “fix” of Hormuz would short‑circuit the dialectic. If Trump rapidly crushed Iran’s remaining coastal capabilities, swept the mines and escorted tankers back through the Strait, Europe and the UK would heave a sigh of relief and return to business as usual: underfunded militaries, maximalist green posturing and performative disdain for US power, all underwritten by that same power. The contradiction between their dependence and their posture would remain latent. By declining to supply the synthesis on demand, and by explicitly telling London and Brussels to “go and take it” themselves, Trump forces a reckoning. European and British leaders must confront the fact that their energy systems, their industrial bases and their geopolitical sermons all rest on an American hard‑power foundation they neither finance nor politically respect. The longer the contradiction is allowed to unfold, the stronger the eventual synthesis can be: a new order in which access to secure flows, Hormuz, Venezuela and beyond, is explicitly conditional on real contributions, not assumed as a right. In that sense, the delay in “taking” the Strait, and the challenge issued to US allies to do it themselves, is not indecision. It is the negative moment Hegel insisted was necessary for history to move. Only by withholding the old guarantee, and by saying so out loud to those who depended on it, can Trump hope to end the free ride.

@askjussi could not pay me to own REITs. would not touch at 70% discount.

@DMichaelTripi the ‘ol’ fire your competition

NEW: Pete Hegseth reportedly “paranoid” about potentially losing his position as Secretary of War which is “fueling” the firing of several top generals and other Army personnel according to current and former administration officials, per New York Post.

@mythmakrr $ffh.to may be a better alternative 😆

How did $bam $bam.to get absolutely decimated

Significant U.S. military transportation across the Atlantic

The past 24 hours have unequivocally proven that CENTCOM will absolutely lie about US casualties and equipment losses

@ArbitrageAndy1 @0xMerp how are you "preparing"

@0xMerp It’s already over Prepare accordingly Literally squandered the last chance to right the ship

if a US airman gets taken POW its so fucking over for the republicans its not even funny

The average American today lives better than John D. Rockefeller did in 1926. That is not an exaggeration. It is a fact. Rockefeller could not fly across the country in five hours. You can for $200. He could not video call his family from another continent. You do it for free. He had no antibiotics, no MRI, no air conditioning in July. He could not carry every book ever written in his pocket. You are reading this on a device that does all of that and more. Americans throw away 30-40% of their food. Not because they are wasteful, but because food is so abundant that waste is affordable. Your car has climate control, navigation, and safety systems that did not exist at any price a century ago. Your home has heating, cooling, refrigeration, and entertainment that emperors could not have imagined. None of this was voted into existence. None of it was redistributed from the rich. It was created by free minds operating in what remains of a free market. Every comfort you enjoy today is the product of a man who thought, invented, produced, and traded voluntarily. This is what the remnants of capitalism still deliver, even while it is being dismantled. Imagine what a fully free society could build.

@cap_zay near term lower is likely. but yes med/long term it's inevitable

Seems like outside of some short term pressure it'd be hard to lose with gold from low $4000s

REITs today are trading at 20–40% discounts to NAV. That means: You can buy $100 of real estate equity for $60-80. With: • Liquidity • Diversification • Professional management This rarely happens.

@Stef_McConnell Never will change unfortunately. Favours the incumbents greatly.

Unlike the United States, Canada does not have a single federal securities regulator. Instead, each province has its own securities legislation and has established a regulatory authority to administer it. As a result, national securities transactions require compliance with several regulatory regimes administered by different authorities

The next three days changed humanity forever. Wishing you all a blessed Easter weekend. 🙏

JUST IN - U.S. fighter jet shot down in Iran, search and rescue operations underway for crew — Axios

Canada’s biggest refinery is turning to Newfoundland for crude for the first time since 2020 as the war on Iran cuts off Middle Eastern supplies bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

@OnlyInCanadaEh1 math aint math'n

High speed rail to have 10 yr payback for construct cost only $400 a trip 50 wk/yr 5 days/wk 90,000 people need to travel between Montreal & Toronto daily At 1300 seats/trip Is 70 runs per day EVERY. SINGLE. DAY. Doesn’t include operating costs AIN’T. GONNA. HAPPEN

Hear me out here - MULTIPLE high speed rail lines. Have them running to East/West coasts. But make them underground. And shape them like a tube. And don't put trains or people in them - put crude and nat gas in the fucking things

@papasmurfffs @taobanker 10–16 stocks is just where the curve starts to flatten, meaning you’ve already removed most diversifiable risk.

@DukeInShadows @taobanker is that because 16 is divisible by 4?

This guy has one of the most legit track records around and everyone I know says he's goated

Asymmetric warfare is similar to tail risk. You hit 100 targets; they hit just one and you've lost.