Elliot The Trader

Stop trying to nail the exact bottom. It’s a fool’s game built on fear. The big money isn’t timing the dip — it’s positioned and thinking in years. Zoom out. The game is longer than today’s candle. Patience or panic — which one are you running on? 👇

Bottoms rarely feel bullish. They usually show up when: the crowd is exhausted, the narrative is broken, and everyone is still waiting for lower. That’s why the best reversals never feel obvious in real time. They feel uncomfortable first.

Huge respect, Ben. The consistency, resilience and clarity over the years are rare. You didn’t just build a channel — you built trust with people across different countries, backgrounds and market cycles. That kind of impact goes far beyond crypto. Congrats on 1M. Well deserved

I started my YouTube channel from a hotel room in June 2019 after presenting my postdoc research at a physics conference in Oregon. At the time, my only goal was to help people navigate the cryptoverse and avoid some of the mistakes I made as a younger investor. I remember being genuinely excited when the channel reached its first 100 subscribers. It felt hard to imagine that many people would be interested in hearing my thoughts on markets. Over the years, there have been plenty of successes, but also many mistakes that forced me to reassess my assumptions and become a more disciplined investor. The truth is that this journey would not have been possible without all of you. Whether you've been here since the beginning or just recently found the channel, thank you for giving me the opportunity to do what I love every day. Today, the channel reached 1 million subscribers. I'm incredibly grateful for that, and I don't take it for granted. Thank you for being part of the journey.

@TedPillows Bullish on the cycle. Not because every dip is over. Because the structure still looks like Bitcoin doing what it always does: shake out conviction, reset sentiment, then expand when liquidity turns. 2027 remains the bigger window

Are you bullish?

One headline says S&P futures turned green because Trump said a deal with Iran is coming. At the same time, the facts on the ground say otherwise: missiles, air defenses, sirens, more escalation. That’s the point: Markets can react to headlines. But they only trust facts. Narratives can create relief rallies. Reality decides whether they last.

Agreed! The market was pricing disaster into the weekend. But the setup is more nuanced now: Monthly still shows pressure. Weekly structure is trying to hold Daily is already stretched to the downside. That doesn’t confirm a bottom yet. But it does make “Black Monday” consensus a much harder trade to press.

Heard a lot of “Black Sunday and Black Monday” talk on Friday. Maybe price drops today, but as I was consistently pointing out last week, sentiment was extremely bearish and the chart looked like a bottom was starting to form. Either way, pretty good weekend.

@benjamincowen This is why bottoms rarely feel like bottoms. By the time this crosses, the crowd is already exhausted, narratives are broken, and most people are waiting for lower. That’s usually when the market starts becoming interesting again

I love the cadence of this chart Bitcoin % of Supply in Profit/Loss As I said previously, you start looking for major market cycle bottoms *after* they cross, not before. They just crossed. Such a great chart for keeping people on the right side of the market in midterm years

Fair point. The 75% is Tokenomist’s “float %” — circulating ÷ their projected 2035 supply (NEAR has no fixed cap, just ~5% annual emission). So it’s not 25% locked, it’s future inflation modeled out to 2035. I should’ve flagged that’s a projection, not real locked supply. My bad on the missing context.

@ElliotTheTrader @CryptoMichNL No, NEAR has 100% of its supply released, where did you get the 75% figure from?

Strong assets will come back stronger than other assets. $NEAR is already up 20% from the lows, while other assets are taking a lot of time to get into at least some form of a bounce. If #Bitcoin breaks $65,000, I'll assume that $NEAR will be running back towards the highs, and other assets are going to get more momentum in there.

@KobeissiLetter Another reminder: peace headlines are cheap, confirmation is expensive. The market has heard “deal soon” all week. It’s still getting strikes instead.

BREAKING: The Israeli Air Force says it conducted strikes in western and central Iran.

BREAKING: 🇰🇷 South Korea's KOSPI index plunges by over 8%, hits circuit breaker.

$BTC WEEKLY We have potential bullish divergence coming out of oversold RSI. Need this week to close with a clear elbow up on price and RSI. If this happens, we have the second confirmed bullish divergence ever on the weekly chart - the first was FTX. This is only the 4th time it has hit oversold on the weekly chart.

BREAKING: South Korea’s stock market has been halted after falling -8.4% at the open.

This is constructive. BTC swept the February low, reclaimed the 200W SMA, and closed the week back above a key long-term level. If buyers defend this zone early in the week, the market could shift quickly from fear to relief. The reclaim is the setup. Follow-through is the trigger.

Bitcoin closed the week above the 200W SMA after sweeping the low from February

South Korea is flashing a risk-off signal. $EWY is extending its breakdown, led by pressure in technology stocks — and this matters far beyond Korea. This is not just a local equity story. Korea is deeply tied to semiconductors, global trade, liquidity cycles and risk appetite. If this weakness continues, the question becomes simple: Is this an isolated correction… or the first crack in global risk assets? Bitcoin, tech, semis, Nasdaq — all live inside the same liquidity wave. When one part of the risk complex starts breaking, you pay attention.

@KobeissiLetter Another “deal is going on” headline. Oil: “are you sure?” Markets can trade hope for a few candles, but energy usually demands confirmation.

BREAKING: President Trump says Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will have "no choice" but to accept a US deal with Iran, because he "calls the shots," per FT. Details include: 1. "I call the shots. I call all the shots. He [Netanyahu] doesn’t call the shots," Trump said 2. Trump said today's missile strikes by Iran will not impact the deal 3. Trump said he believes "the deal is going on" 4. Trump said that Iran’s strikes had not changed his desire to conclude US-Iran negotiations Oil prices are trading higher.

Bitcoin week ahead Monthly: bears still control the structure. Weekly: loss of the $65.4K prior low opens the door for a third leg lower. Daily: downside looks stretched, with RSI, stochastic and volatility already near stress zones. So the market has two paths: continuation lower into the third wave short-term relief before the broader downtrend resumes The signal is clear: Monthly pressure. Weekly breakdown. Daily exhaustion. This week matters. #bitcoin #crypto

@CryptoMichNL Everyone wants lower prices until lower prices arrive. That’s why market bottoms are not built by comfort. They’re built by fear, exhaustion and forced hesitation. The crowd always wants the dip. Until the dip becomes real

When #Bitcoin was trading at $100k, people were dying to be buying the asset at $80k. Price fell to $80k, people were dying to be buying the asset at $60k. Price fell to $60k, now people are dying to be buying at $30-40k. They won't, as the fear takes over. Moral of the story: simply DCA when there's mass blood in the streets.

@KobeissiLetter Fifth “deal is coming” headline in a week. Markets want de-escalation, but they also need confirmation. Until missiles stop moving, every peace headline is just another volatility candle.

BREAKING: President Trump says the US and Iran are "close to a deal" as a third wave Iranian ballistic missiles is fired toward Israel, per Fox News.

@AltcoinDaily Bitcoin can absolutely go lower. But “can” is not the same as “likely.” The market doesn’t move because scary scenarios exist. It moves through liquidity, positioning, and structure. If BTC defends the lows and builds continuation, the bear case starts losing oxygen fast

"Bitcoin can't possibly fall any lower." Listen, I'm as long term bullish as the next guy but let me share with you the harsh reality of the current state of the crypto market: Bitcoin can ABSOLUTELY fall lower. The macro headwinds are there. Here is how it could happen THIS YEAR: JUNE: Mega IPOs/AI suck up capital JULY: Stocks crash & bear begins AUGUST: 10-year treasury hits 6% SEPTEMBER: Fed hikes rates OCTOBER: Clarity Act fails to pass NOVEMBER: Midterm election chaos DECEMBER: Black swan Look, I'm not saying this is likely to happen. In fact all of that playing out in the next 6 months would probably be extremely UNLIKELY. But... price could absolutely go lower. Like I said, I'm long term bullish, but it's important to plan for all scenarios. But what do you think?

@KobeissiLetter Put open interest doesn’t just show fear. It shows where the crowd is positioned. After a -14% move, the key question is simple: Are investors hedging early… or chasing protection late?

Demand for protection against a South Korean stock market decline is surging: Put option open interest in the South Korea ETF, $EWY, is up to ~880,000 contracts, the highest in at least 12 months. The total number of outstanding put option contracts has QUADRUPLED over the last several weeks. By comparison, call option open interest has increased +80,000 over the same period, to ~400,000 contracts, near the highest in a year. To put this into perspective, both put and call option open interest stood at ~50,000 contracts in January 2026. Meanwhile, $EWY declined -14% on Friday, posting its largest daily drop since the 2020 pandemic crash. Investors are rushing to hedge against a correction in South Korea.