Event Odds | Prediction Market Forecast

$73 → $84,700 in 9 weeks on Polymarket. No leverage. No insider alpha. No viral moonshot bet. Just 1,142 disciplined trades, mostly 5-40¢ positions on politics, crypto resolutions, and geopolitics flash crashes. Equity curve? Basically a 45° angle up. Biggest lesson staring everyone in the face: Most people blow up chasing 10× in one market. The quiet ones who print 1,000× overall? They bet like it’s a job, not a casino: small size + edge + showing up daily. Prediction markets aren’t get rich quick anymore. They’re get rich boring. Who’s still grinding small edges in 2026? Drop your best underrated market below 👇 Follow @EventOdds for daily probability shifts before they become obvious.

@conCaramel @Soulful1865 Yeah, that’s why we need to ban weed so more people do MDMA.

@EventOdds @Soulful1865 This is not how you behave on weed. This is speed or ecstasy, at least an upper, which weed is not

Showing up high on drugs to your Nephew birthday party ..whos a toddler.

3/ Bonus wild one: "Bitcoin hits $150k by July amid oil shock?" → 45% Yes (safe-haven narrative kicking in hard). Follow for daily updates on the hottest event contracts. What market are YOU trading right now? 👀 #Polymarket #Kalshi #Geopolitics

2/ Why this matters: Prediction markets have been scary accurate on geopolitics lately. Remember how they called [recent big event] days early? If you're trading these, size small liquidity is wild but volatility is insane. What's your position? Drop it below.

🚨 Iran just hit Al Udeid Air Base + US sub sank Iranian frigate off Sri Lanka. Oil spiking, markets in chaos. What are prediction markets saying RIGHT NOW? - Will Iran-US go full war in 2026? - Oil above $150 by summer? - Fed emergency rate cut this month? Odds + my take 👇 #PredictionMarkets #IranConflict #OilCrash

🚨 Polymarket Alert: Will courts force Trump tariff refunds by Jun 30? SCOTUS already killed IEEPA tariffs, but history (US Shoe, etc.) shows refunds take yearsTrump admin still fighting every step. NO at 76% is massively undervalued. Hard NO 👀 polymarket.com/event/will-the… #PredictionMarkets #TrumpTariffs

Gulf State strike on Iran by March 7? Polymarket at 49% YES amid tensions. My estimate: 10% Gulf states avoid direct hits historically; prefer US-led containment. Evidence: No precedent in crises like 2019 Aramco; current alerts defensive only. I’m buying NO. polymarket.com/event/will-a-g… #PredictionMarkets #EventOdds

📊 US forces enter Iran by Mar 7 trading ~24% on Polymarket. Major U.S. Israel airstrikes underway, no public troop mobilization or ground deployment announced; analysts see air operations dominating early conflict. Latest base rate for rapid ground entry post-air campaign is very low. Independent estimate ~12%. I’m buying NO. #PredictionMarkets #EventOdds 🔗 polymarket.com/event/us-force…

📉 US-Iran ceasefire by Mar 6? Polymarket shows ~25% YES. Overpriced vs reality. Current global tensions are sharply escalating after recent strikes and retaliation, and major powers are far from a negotiated halt. International agencies (IAEA) and world leaders are urging de-escalation and immediate ceasefire, but concrete diplomatic resolution before Mar 6 remains unlikely as combat intensifies. Khamenei’s death and escalating air/retaliatory strikes suggest chaos, not talks. True odds of an earlier ceasefire align more with ~7–19% than 25%. (Market may be overweight on early optimism.) 🔎 Bet NO for an edge. #PredictionMarkets #EventOdds 📊✌️ polymarket.com/event/us-x-ira…

🚨 Strong edge: Polymarket successor to Khamenei odds undervalued post-Trump's "dead" claim no appearances, regime silence forces quick naming by March 31. $36M+ vol momentum screams Yes. Track record loaded here. Credit @Kalshi for the breaking trigger. Trade: polymarket.com/event/will-ira… Repost if you're in let's push this signal. #Polymarket #PredictionMarkets

🚨 OpenAI edge: Polymarket at 62% for ChatGPT outage by March 15 $3K+ volume on recent downtime spikes (3 in Feb alone). True odds higher per status history; strong conviction loading Yes. #Polymarket #AI Trade: polymarket.com/event/chatgpt-…

🚨 Regime collapse accelerating: Polymarket at 57% for Iranian regime falling by June 30 $3M+ volume surging on US/Israel strikes, Khamenei elimination reports, and no public appearance. Market undervalues the cascade effect: If Supreme Leader confirmed out (96% by March 31), full regime odds should push 80%+. Strong edge here before confirmation spikes it. Trade: polymarket.com/event/will-the… Positioning confidently. #Polymarket #Iran #Geopolitics

🚨 BREAKING: Polymarket now at 96% chance Khamenei is OUT as Iran's Supreme Leader by March 31! $29M+ volume poured in after US/Israel strikes + reports of his death/no public appearance. Whales loading up YES market's screaming regime collapse imminent. Ends March 31. Bet here before it hits 99%: polymarket.com/event/khamenei… Who's riding this wave? 🔥 #Polymarket #Iran #PredictionMarkets

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 President Trump orders all federal agencies to immediately stop using Anthropic's Claude AI. "Anthropic better get their act together…or I will use the full power of the presidency to make them comply."

🔮 Hot Prediction Market Pick: Bet on NO for "AI Factory" mention in Dell's Q4 FY2026 earnings call (just happened Feb 26)! Current Yes at 49¢ (49% prob, down sharply today). Deep evidence: Recent press releases & earnings summaries emphasize "AI-optimized servers," record $9B Q4 AI revenue, $64B orders, $43B backlog but zero "AI Factory" phrasing in today's results, unlike prior quarters' transcripts. Market plunged 43% in confidence overnight as call avoided the exact term. Solid edge: coinbase.com/predictions/ev… #PredictionMarkets #DellEarnings

Bet on YES for "Economy / Economic" in Kathy Hochul's next announcement! Evidence: Her 2026 State of the State speech mentioned "economy" 3x, while the agenda book uses "economy/economic" 45+ times in affordability, growth & policy contexts. With budget/climate/infra talks heating up, she's bound to say it. Current Yes: 56% implied on Coinbase, kalshi, polymart! coinbase.com/predictions/ev… #PredictionMarkets

@KalshiTrade @PredictHQ_ Who's the best mention trader you recommend following?

Trump's State of the Union was the Super Bowl of mention markets Over $56,000,000 in volume across all SOTU markets And $150,000+ profit from the best public mention markets traders

This aged like fine wine.