#Wimbledon - Day Seven (𝟭𝗨) 🇯🇵 Osaka ML @ 2.75 / +175 (𝟮𝗨) 🇯🇵 Osaka +3.5 @ 1.91 / -110 Hit 𝐋𝐈𝐊𝐄 - If You’re 𝐓𝐀𝐈𝐋𝐈𝐍𝐆 ❤️ Aryna Sabalenka has beaten Naomi Osaka three times this year alone, once at Indian Wells and twice on clay. Instantly, I want to remind you that Naomi Osaka has struggled on clay for years, it is her least preferred surface and despite that she was able to still take a set and keep both matches competitive. Also, going into the Roland Garros match I remember how Osaka accepted the defeat before the match (in her interviews) and thats the thing with Osaka isn’t it? It’s all about her mentality because she is one of the best in the world when her mind is in the right place. People are writing Naomi Osaka off completely, everyone except the bookmakers… in all honesty I debated taking this bet because I expected a more generous line but they say the bookmakers are sharpest during grand slams and I think this is a great line set by them because an Osaka upset is more realistic here. Naomi Osaka has always had the traits to be great on grass BUT she hasn’t been able to do it… that all changed this year, she has figured out the recipe and is running with it. She recorded a 9.6 rating in her last match! That is the highest rating in the tournament so far… Also, do you remember how I said clay is Osaka’s worst surface? Well grass is Aryna Sabalenka’s worst surface in my opinion so you can imagine how optimistic I am for Osaka here. Aryna Sabalenka has an elite serve and return combo, it really is the best in the business but when it doesn’t work as much as she’d like, trouble creeps in. She was outplayed by Jelena Ostapenko today, only winning because of Jelena’s inconsistency, weaker serve and because she was able to win a-lot of free points on her own serve but in rallies, she was outplayed. She was even on the verge of losing a set to McCartney Kessler so it’s not like Sabalenka has been unplayable out here. The bottom line is this: the H2H means nothing on grass as its Sabalenka’s weakest surface, Naomi Osaka also has the serve to compete and the ball striking to finish points, she is coming into this match high on confidence, which she did not have in their RG clash and she is playing better tennis out of the two right now. I’d love to have odds of like +275 for Osaka but I won’t be put off by sharp pricing by the books. I think, Naomi Osaka gets her first win over Sabalenka on her fourth try this year.
